Economic Weekly Wrap
21 August 2023 - 25 August 2023
-
21 Aug 2023
After a turbulent week, a degree of calm returned to the global markets as investors await commentary from major central banks at the Jackson Hole Symposium. With growth indicators in US suggesting a resilient economy, expectations of “higher for longer” rates by Fed have increased. Stress returned in China’s battered property sector, despite stimulus measures by government and PBOC. Most recently, PBOC cut the 1Y loan prime rate (LPR) by 10bps to 3.45%. Retail sales volume in UK fell by 1.2% in Jul’23 (est. -0.6%), indicating a drag on consumer spending amidst elevated inflation. In India, monsoon rains have turned elusive with a deficit of 7% below LPA (upto 20 Aug). While overall kharif sowing is 0.1% higher than last year, sowing of pulses and oilseeds is lower and remains a cause of concern.
Except US (higher), global indices ended lower amidst expectations of tighter financial conditions. Recent estimates by Bloomberg suggest that US is likely to have a soft landing, with higher likelihood of dodging a recession. This pushed US stocks higher. Asian stocks continued to falter amidst woes in China’s real estate sector. Sensex fell by 0.3% dragged by technology and metal stocks. However, it is trading higher today while other Asian stocks are trading mixed.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
17-08-2023 18-08-2023 % change Dow Jones 34,475 34,501 0.1 S & P 500 4,370 4,370 0 FTSE 7,310 7,262 (0.7) Nikkei 31,626 31,451 (0.6) Hang Seng 18,327 17,951 (2.1) Shanghai Comp 3,164 3,132 (1.0) Sensex 65,151 64,949 (0.3) Nifty 19,365 19,310 (0.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies ended mixed. After rising to a near 2-month high, DXY pulled back and ended 0.2% lower. For the week, it is still up by 0.5% amidst bets of higher for longer US rates. GBP fell as UK’s retail sales disappointed. INR appreciated by 0.1%, from a record low. It is trading stronger today, while other Asian currencies are mostly weaker.
Fig 2 – Currencies
17-08-2023 18-08-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0872 1.0873 0 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2747 1.2734 (0.1) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 145.84 145.39 0.3 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 83.15 83.11 0.1 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.2866 7.2845 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields closed lower as some respite was seen from the recent rout. Germany’s 10Y yield fell the most by 9bps as ECB official (Philip R. Lane) spoke of not driving demand ‘deeply negative’. UK’s 10Y yield fell by 7bps as core retail sales data showed considerable degree of softening. India’s 10Y yield fell by 3bps in line with global cues. It is trading at 7.23% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
17-08-2023 18-08-2023 change in bps US 4.27 4.25 (2) UK 4.75 4.68 (7) Germany 2.71 2.62 (9) Japan 0.65 0.64 (1) China 2.57 2.56 (1) India 7.25 7.22 (3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
17-08-2023 18-08-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.85 6.83 (2) Tbill-182 days 7.00 7.01 1 Tbill-364 days 7.05 7.03 (2) G-Sec 2Y 7.19 7.17 (2) India OIS-2M 6.78 6.78 0 India OIS-9M 6.92 6.97 5 SONIA int rate benchmark 5.18 5.18 0 US SOFR 5.30 5.30 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 17-08-2023 18-08-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (1.0) (0.4) 0.6 Reverse repo 0.3 0.3 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
11-08-2023 14-08-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (153.7) 1,084.2 1,238.0 Debt 152.4 42.3 (110.2) Equity (306.2) 1,042.0 1,348.2 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 1,001.9 563.4 (438.5) Debt 291.1 75.9 (215.2) Equity 710.8 487.5 (223.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Oil prices rose supported by hopes surrounding more stimulus in China.
Fig 7 – Commodities
17-08-2023 18-08-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 84.1 84.8 0.8 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,889.4 1,889.3 0 Copper (US$/ MT) 8,200.9 8,213.8 0.2 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,285.5 2,287.0 0.1 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,145.5 2,137.0 (0.4) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
-
22 Aug 2023
Expectations of US rates remaining higher for longer have increased, leading to a further sell-off in global bonds. US 10Y yield rose to a ~16-year high at 4.34%. Investors are awaiting comments from the Fed Chair at the end of the week. However, a resilient economy amidst still elevated inflation suggest that rates will have to stay high for some time. Markets also remain on edge tracking developments in China, as the country grapples with a precipitous growth slowdown and a property crisis. Stimulus measures so far have done little to lift market sentiments. In Germany, PPI inflation declined by 6% in Jul’23 (est. -5.1%), led by lower energy prices. This was the first drop in PPI since Nov’20, suggesting that inflationary pressures may be abating. In India, liquidity slipped into deficit for the first time in FY24, amidst implementation of RBI’s incremental-CRR.
Global indices closed mixed. Markets are awaiting Fed Chair’s speech for cues on future trajectory of policy rate. Further, sell-off in the US bond market dampened sentiments in the equity segment as well. Asian stocks fell the most as concerns mount over slowdown in China. S&P 500 inched up, supported by a tech rally. Sensex rose by 0.4%, led by power and capital goods stocks. It is trading further higher today, while other Asian stocks are trading mixed.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
18-08-2023
21-08-2023
% change
Dow Jones
34,501
34,464
(0.1)
S & P 500
4,370
4,400
0.7
FTSE
7,262
7,258
(0.1)
Nikkei
31,451
31,566
0.4
Hang Seng
17,951
17,623
(1.8)
Shanghai Comp
3,132
3,093
(1.2)
Sensex
64,949
65,216
0.4
Nifty
19,310
19,394
0.4
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies closed mixed. DXY fell 0.1% as investors await comments from Fed Chair. EUR and GBP were both 0.2% higher. On the other hand, JPY depreciated by 0.6% fuelling further expectations of intervention. INR and CNY ended flat. INR along with other Asian currencies is trading stronger today.
Fig 2 – Currencies
18-08-2023
21-08-2023
% change
EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD)
1.0873
1.0896
0.2
GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD)
1.2734
1.2756
0.2
USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD)
145.39
146.22
(0.6)
USD/INR (INR / 1 USD)
83.11
83.11
0
USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD)
7.2845
7.2832
0
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Barring China (lower), global yields closed higher. US 10Y yield rose to its highest since Nov’07. Market is anticipating hawkish tone in Fed Chair’s upcoming speech. Even Germany’s 10Y yield inched up by 8bps despite some moderation in factory prices. China’s 10Y yield fell by 2bps amidst policy support. India’s 10Y yield closed flat. It is trading higher at 7.24% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
18-08-2023
21-08-2023
change in bps
US
4.25
4.34
8
UK
4.68
4.73
5
Germany
2.62
2.70
8
Japan
0.64
0.65
1
China
2.56
2.54
(2)
India
7.22
7.22
0
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
18-08-2023
21-08-2023
change in bps
Tbill-91 days
6.83
6.81
(2)
Tbill-182 days
7.01
7.01
0
Tbill-364 days
7.03
7.03
0
G-Sec 2Y
7.17
7.13
(3)
India OIS-2M
6.78
6.78
0
India OIS-9M
6.97
6.98
1
SONIA int rate benchmark
5.18
5.18
0
US SOFR
5.30
5.30
0
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn
18-08-2023
21-08-2023
change (Rs tn)
Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit)
(0.4)
0.2
0.6
Reverse repo
0.3
0.3
0
Repo
0
0
0
Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
17-08-2023
18-08-2023
change (US$ mn/Rs
cr)
FII (US$ mn)
(97.8)
236.1
333.9
Debt
21.0
166.9
146.0
Equity
(118.7)
69.2
187.9
Mutual funds (Rs cr)
1,001.9
563.4
(438.5)
Debt
291.1
75.9
(215.2)
Equity
710.8
487.5
(223.3)
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Oil prices fell by 0.4% as lower growth concerns in China loom.
Fig 7 – Commodities
18-08-2023
21-08-2023
% change
Brent crude (US$/bbl)
84.8
84.5
(0.4)
Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce)
1,889.3
1,894.9
0.3
Copper (US$/ MT)
8,213.8
8,239.0
0.3
Zinc (US$/MT)
2,287.0
2,295.8
0.4
Aluminium (US$/MT)
2,137.0
2,144.0
0.3
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
-
23 Aug 2023
Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin stated that the US economy could reaccelerate rather than slowdown. This will keep inflationary pressures elevated which will require further monetary policy tightening. Market participants widely expect a pause by the Fed in its next meeting. However, the possibility of another rate hike in CY23 has increased. Early indicators suggest that economic activity in Asian economies stalled further, led by manufacturing sector. Flash manufacturing PMI of Japan and Australia both remained below 50, indicating a contraction in activity. In US, existing home sales declined by 2.2% in Jul’23 to 4.07mn units (est. 4.15mn units) amidst surging mortgage rates. The Indian government In its monthly review, noted that inflationary pressures due to global uncertainty and domestic disruptions would require careful monitoring by RBI and the government.
Except US, global stocks closed higher. Investors are reluctant to hold any strong positions awaiting major central bank official’s speeches. Richmond Fed President remained hawkish stressing on the credibility to maintain 2% inflation target. US stocks moderated following some softening in home sales data. Asian stocks inched up tracking recovery in corporate earnings results. Sensex closed flat. It is trading lower today, while other Asian stocks are trading mixed.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
21-08-2023
22-08-2023
% change
Dow Jones
34,464
34,289
(0.5)
S & P 500
4,400
4,388
(0.3)
FTSE
7,258
7,271
0.2
Nikkei
31,566
31,857
0.9
Hang Seng
17,623
17,791
1.0
Shanghai Comp
3,093
3,120
0.9
Sensex
65,216
65,220
0
Nifty
19,394
19,396
0
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies closed mixed. DXY rose by 0.3% as all eyes remain on Fed Chair’s speech at the end of the week. EUR and GBP depreciated by 0.5% and 0.2% respectively. On the other hand, JPY and INR appreciated by 0.2% each. In line with other Asian currencies, INR is trading weaker today.
Fig 2 – Currencies
21-08-2023
22-08-2023
% change
EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD)
1.0896
1.0846
(0.5)
GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD)
1.2756
1.2732
(0.2)
USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD)
146.22
145.89
0.2
USD/INR (INR / 1 USD)
83.11
82.93
0.2
USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD)
7.2832
7.2940
(0.1)
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields closed mixed. UK’s 10Y yield fell by 8bps as market borrowing moderated considerably in Jul’23. Even Germany’s 10Y yield fell by 6bps ahead of major central bank officials’ speeches. Japan’s 10Y yield rose by 2bps. India’s 10Y yield closed flat. It is trading at 7.21% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
21-08-2023
22-08-2023
change in bps
US
4.34
4.32
(1)
UK
4.73
4.65
(8)
Germany
2.70
2.65
(6)
Japan
0.65
0.67
2
China
2.54
2.55
1
India
7.22
7.22
0
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
21-08-2023
22-08-2023
change in bps
Tbill-91 days
6.81
6.80
(1)
Tbill-182 days
7.01
6.99
(2)
Tbill-364 days
7.03
7.01
(2)
G-Sec 2Y
7.13
7.12
(1)
India OIS-2M
6.78
6.77
(1)
India OIS-9M
6.98
6.97
(1)
SONIA int rate benchmark
5.18
5.18
0
US SOFR
5.30
5.30
0
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn
21-08-2023
22-08-2023
change (Rs tn)
Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit)
0.2
0.2
0
Reverse repo
0.3
0.3
0
Repo
0
0
0
Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
18-08-2023
21-08-2023
change (US$ mn/Rs
cr)
FII (US$ mn)
236.1
114.3
(121.8)
Debt
166.9
268.0
101.1
Equity
69.2
(153.7)
(222.9)
Mutual funds (Rs cr)
1,001.9
563.4
(438.5)
Debt
291.1
75.9
(215.2)
Equity
710.8
487.5
(223.3)
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Oil prices moderated amidst fears of dampening demand conditions.
Fig 7 – Commodities
21-08-2023
22-08-2023
% change
Brent crude (US$/bbl)
84.5
84.0
(0.5)
Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce)
1,894.9
1,897.5
0.1
Copper (US$/ MT)
8,239.0
8,330.7
1.1
Zinc (US$/MT)
2,295.8
2,314.5
0.8
Aluminium (US$/MT)
2,144.0
2,177.0
1.5
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
-
24 Aug 2023
Economic activity in advanced economies signalled a significant moderation, led by a drop in momentum in the services sector. Flash composite PMI in US fell to 50.4 in Aug’23 (6-month low) from 52 in Jul’23. In Eurozone, flash composite PMI dropped to a 33-month low at 47 in Aug’23 from 48.6 in Jul’23. Even in UK, the composite PMI fell to 47.9-a 31-month low. With growth faltering, markets now await comments from major central banks at Jackson Hole. Expectations of rate hikes by Fed have diminished after the softer than expected PMI data, which pushed DXY and US10Y lower. Elsewhere, Bank of Korea kept its policy rates steady for the fifth straight time at 3.5% as both inflation and growth weakens. Growth and inflation projections for CY23 were kept unchanged.
Except Shanghai Comp (lower), other global stocks closed higher. This was on the back of expectation of a pause in Fed rate following recent softening of US PMI. Even in Germany and UK, manufacturing and services PMI moderated. S&P 500 rose the most, followed by FTSE. Sensex rose by 0.3% led by banking stocks. It is trading further higher today, in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
22-08-2023 23-08-2023 % change Dow Jones 34,289 34,473 0.5 S & P 500 4,388 4,436 1.1 FTSE 7,271 7,321 0.7 Nikkei 31,857 32,010 0.5 Hang Seng 17,791 17,846 0.3 Shanghai Comp 3,120 3,078 (1.3) Sensex 65,220 65,433 0.3 Nifty 19,396 19,444 0.2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except GBP (flat), other global currencies rose against dollar. DXY fell by 0.1%. JPY and INR gained the most. Weaker than expected macro prints (continued contraction in global services PMIs), dampened expectations of more rate hikes by Fed. INR rose by 0.3%, as oil prices fell. It is trading even higher today in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
22-08-2023 23-08-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0846 1.0863 0.2 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2732 1.2727 0 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 145.89 144.84 0.7 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.93 82.68 0.3 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.2940 7.2785 0.2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Barring Japan (tad higher by 1bps), global yields fell sharply. UK’s 10Y yield fell the most by 18bps followed by US and Germany’s (-13bps each). The increased appetite for sovereign securities was post the release of PMI data of major economies, which pointed some degree of slowdown in economic activity. India’s 10Y yield also fell by 3bps. It is trading at 7.18% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
22-08-2023 23-08-2023 change in bps US 4.32 4.19 (13) UK 4.65 4.47 (18) Germany 2.65 2.52 (13) Japan 0.67 0.67 1 China 2.55 2.55 0 India 7.22 7.19 (3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
22-08-2023 23-08-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.80 6.85 5 Tbill-182 days 6.99 7.03 4 Tbill-364 days 7.01 7.05 4 G-Sec 2Y 7.12 7.13 1 India OIS-2M 6.77 6.77 0 India OIS-9M 6.97 6.96 (1) SONIA int rate benchmark 5.18 5.18 0 US SOFR 5.30 5.30 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn
21-08-2023
22-08-2023
change (Rs tn)
Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit)
0.2
0.2
0
Reverse repo
0.3
0.3
0
Repo
0
0
0
Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
21-08-2023 22-08-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 114.3 (270.6) (384.9) Debt 268.0 (257.5) (525.5) Equity (153.7) (13.1) 140.6 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 1,001.9 563.4 (438.5) Debt 291.1 75.9 (215.2) Equity 710.8 487.5 (223.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Oil prices fell by 1% as demand outlook further weakened.
Fig 7 – Commodities
22-08-2023 23-08-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 84.0 83.2 (1.0) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,897.5 1,915.5 0.9 Copper (US$/ MT) 8,330.7 8,424.3 1.1 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,314.5 2,351.3 1.6 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,177.0 2,179.5 0.1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
-
25 Aug 2023
Global markets remained on edge as investors keenly await guidance on future rate trajectory at Jackson Hole. With growth momentum in EU and UK slowing down significantly, expectations of further rate hikes are dwindling. On the other hand, US economy is in a better space. Recent data showed that while both manufacturing and services activity slipped in Aug’23, labour market continues to remain strong.The job for the Fed hence seems challenging, with two Fed officials favouring a hawkish pause. In Japan, core CPI inflation in Tokyo eased further, but remained well above BoJ’s target at 2.8% in Aug’23. Minutes of RBI’s last meeting suggest that while members were optimistic on growth, they remained wary of risks to the inflation outlook. Risks to the inflation outlook remain from uneven rainfall and El- Nino which will require careful monitoring by RBI.
Global stocks closed mixed. Investors remained cautious tracking Fed officials’ comments as well as tight labour market data in US. Two Fed officials spoke of a hawkish pause. Asian stocks rose amidst hopes of more stimulus in China. Sensex fell by 0.3%, led by losses in metal and consumer durables stocks. It is trading further lower today, in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
23-08-2023 24-08-2023 % change Dow Jones 34,473 34,099 (1.1) S & P 500 4,436 4,376 (1.3) FTSE 7,321 7,334 0.2 Nikkei 32,010 32,287 0.9 Hang Seng 17,846 18,212 2.1 Shanghai Comp 3,078 3,082 0.1 Sensex 65,433 65,252 (0.3) Nifty 19,444 19,387 (0.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except INR and CNY, other global currencies ended weaker. DXY rose by 0.5% as US jobless claims fell more than expected last week suggesting continued tightness in the labour market. GBP depreciated the most by 1% even as GfK’s consumer confidence index for UK picked up. INR appreciated supported by FPI inflows. However, it is trading weaker today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
23-08-2023 24-08-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0863 1.0810 (0.5) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2727 1.2602 (1.0) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 144.84 145.83 (0.7) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.68 82.58 0.1 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.2785 7.2799 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields closed mixed. UK’s 10Y yield fell by 4bps as retail sales data softened considerably in Aug’23. Germany’s 10Y yield closed flat monitoring comments from ECB’s Governing Council member about a more data dependent approach. US 10Y yield rose by 5bps ahead of Fed Chair’s speech. India’s 10Y yield closed flat and is trading at the same level today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
23-08-2023 24-08-2023 change in bps US 4.19 4.24 5 UK 4.47 4.43 (4) Germany 2.52 2.51 0 Japan 0.67 0.66 (2) China 2.55 2.55 0 India 7.19 7.20 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
23-08-2023 24-08-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.85 6.80 (5) Tbill-182 days 7.03 7.00 (3) Tbill-364 days 7.05 7.03 (2) G-Sec 2Y 7.13 7.11 (2) India OIS-2M 6.77 6.78 1 India OIS-9M 6.96 6.98 2 SONIA int rate benchmark 5.18 5.19 0 US SOFR 5.30 5.30 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 23-08-2023 24-08-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) 0.2 (0.3) (0.5) Reverse repo 0.3 0.3 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
22-08-2023 23-08-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (270.6) 117.5 388.1 Debt (257.5) 8.8 266.3 Equity (13.1) 108.7 121.8 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 1,001.9 563.4 (438.5) Debt 291.1 75.9 (215.2) Equity 710.8 487.5 (223.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Oil prices rose by 0.2% amidst reports of falling gas oil stocks in Europe.
Fig 7 – Commodities
23-08-2023 24-08-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 83.2 83.4 0.2 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,915.5 1,916.9 0.1 Copper (US$/ MT) 8,424.3 8,326.5 (1.2) Zinc (US$/MT) 2,351.3 2,377.8 1.1 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,179.5 2,157.5 (1.0) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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