Economic Weekly Wrap
14 August 2023 - 18 August 2023
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14 Aug 2023
US PPI data rose more than expected both on a sequential (0.3%, est: 0.2%) and YoY basis (0.8%, est.: 0.7%) in Jul’23. The provisional data of University of Michigan sentiment index also remained stable at 71.2. What came as a respite is that both 1- Year and 5-10 Year inflation expectations remained well anchored. Elsewhere, in UK, GDP data for Jun’23 pointed to some recovery with private consumption demand gaining momentum. In China, woes in the property sector again appeared. In Japan, all eyes are on the Yen as it hovers around the psychological 145-mark with the widening divergence between US and its 10Y yield. On domestic front, CPI and WPI data will be closely watched.
Apart from Dow Jones, other global indices ended lower. Investors monitored the news of US PPI climbing to 0.8% in Jul'23 from 0.2% in Jun'23 led by jump in services cost. Amongst other indices, Shanghai Comp (2%) dropped the most after a real estate firm issued profit warning. Sensex (0.6%) too ended in red and was dragged down by banking and auto stocks. Asian stocks are trading lower today.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
10-08-2023 11-08-2023 % change Dow Jones 35,176 35,281 0.3 S & P 500 4,469 4,464 (0.1) FTSE 7,619 7,524 (1.2) Nikkei 32,204 32,474 0.8 Hang Seng 19,248 19,075 (0.9) Shanghai Comp 3,255 3,189 (2.0) Sensex 65,688 65,323 (0.6) Nifty 19,543 19,428 (0.6) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Barring GBP, other global currencies ended lower. DXY firmed up by 0.3%. Markets expect an 89% likelihood of Fed keeping rates on hold in the next meeting amidst news of US CPI moderating. Yen breached the 145/dollar mark and retreated back signalling a possible intervention by officials soon. INR depreciated as oil prices inched up. It is trading weaker today while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
10-08-2023 11-08-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0981 1.0949 (0.3) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2676 1.2696 0.2 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 144.75 144.96 (0.1) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.72 82.84 (0.1) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.2188 7.2396 (0.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except Japan (stable) and China (lower), global yields closed higher. UK’s 10Y yield firmed up the most by 16bps supported by better GDP data. In US, 10Y yield rose by 5bps tracking PPI data. In India as well, 10Y yield rose by 5bps ahead of the CPI data.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
10-08-2023 11-08-2023 change in bps US 4.11 4.15 5 UK 4.36 4.53 16 Germany 2.53 2.62 10 Japan 0.58 0.58 0 China 2.66 2.65 (1) India 7.15 7.20 5 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
10-08-2023 11-08-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.76 6.76 0 Tbill-182 days 6.89 6.92 3 Tbill-364 days 6.93 6.94 1 G-Sec 2Y 7.09 7.10 1 India OIS-2M 6.68 6.68 0 India OIS-9M 6.85 6.89 4 SONIA int rate benchmark 5.18 5.18 0 US SOFR 5.30 5.30 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 9-08-2023 10-08-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (2.1) (2.6) (0.5) Reverse repo 0.9 0.9 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
09-08-2023 10-08-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 264.2 278.6 14.4 Debt 143.9 31.3 (112.6) Equity 120.4 247.3 126.9 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 1,001.9 563.4 (438.5) Debt 291.1 75.9 (215.2) Equity 710.8 487.5 (223.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Oil prices rose by 0.5% as worries over tighter supply conditions persisted.
Fig 7 – Commodities
10-08-2023 11-08-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 86.4 86.8 0.5 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,912.5 1,913.8 0.1 Copper (US$/ MT) 8,348.7 8,255.6 (1.1) Zinc (US$/MT) 2,484.5 2,409.0 (3.0) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,204.0 2,175.5 (1.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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17 Aug 2023
Uncertainty around slower pace of recovery in China’s and fear of Fed keeping rate hike on the table longer than anticipated kept the global indices on the edge. Fed minutes had a hawkish tone as it highlighted about the ‘upside risks’ to inflation pushing towards more rate hikes. Notably, markets have priced in 86% chance of no rate change in Sep’23 with chance of rate hike possible in Nov’23 and possibly even in Dec’23 meet. Fed also stated that it no longer sees the recession risk in CY23, though growth will be subdued in CY24. In China, series of data raised fears of patchy recovery post pandemic which is expected to be weighed down further by deepening property crisis.
Global indices closed lower. Market assessed Fed minutes where tones of officials were slightly restrictive as inflationary concerns still linger. Apart from this, better macro prints in the US also raised some cautionary call on demand pull inflationary pressure. Hang Seng dropped the most. Asian markets are trading mixed and Sensex has opened lower in the truncated trading week.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
15-08-2023 16-08-2023 % change Dow Jones 34,946 34,766 (0.5) S & P 500 4,438 4,404 (0.8) FTSE 7,390 7,357 (0.4) Nikkei 32,239 31,767 (1.5) Hang Seng 18,581 18,329 (1.4) Shanghai Comp 3,176 3,150 (0.8) Sensex 65,402 65,539 0.2 Nifty 19,435 19,465 0.2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Barring GBP, other global currencies ended lower. DXY firmed up by 0.2%. Yen continued to weaken further as investors anticipated the likelihood of a possible intervention by the officials. Yuan dropped by 0.1% amidst fears of slowdown in China’s economy. INR is trading weaker today in line with other Asian currencies amidst concerns around China.
Fig 2 – Currencies
15-08-2023 16-08-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0905 1.0879 (0.2) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2705 1.2732 0.2 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 145.57 146.35 (0.5) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.84 82.96 (0.1) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.2884 7.2985 (0.1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields closed mixed. UK’s 10Y yield firmed up the most by 6bps despite inflation showing some signs of softening in the region. US 10Y yield rose by 4bps tracking Fed minutes. China’s 10Y yield fell a tad by 1bps as macro prints remained weaker. India’s 10Y yield is trading higher at 7.25% today as headline CPI overshot market expectations to a considerable degree.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
15-08-2023 16-08-2023 change in bps US 4.21 4.25 4 UK 4.59 4.65 6 Germany 2.67 2.65 (2) Japan 0.63 0.63 0 China 2.58 2.57 (1) India 7.20 7.21 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
15-08-2023 16-08-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.76 6.78 2 Tbill-182 days 6.92 6.93 1 Tbill-364 days 6.94 6.93 (1) G-Sec 2Y 7.10 7.14 4 India OIS-2M 6.70 6.70 0 India OIS-9M 6.92 6.92 0 SONIA int rate benchmark 5.18 5.18 0 US SOFR 5.30 5.30 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 13-08-2023 14-08-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (1.2) (0.2) 1 Reverse repo 0.3 0.3 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
10-08-2023 11-08-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 278.6 (153.7) (432.3) Debt 31.3 152.4 121.2 Equity 247.3 (306.2) (553.5) Mutual funds (Rs cr) 1,001.9 563.4 (438.5) Debt 291.1 75.9 (215.2) Equity 710.8 487.5 (223.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Oil prices fell by 1.7% as demand concerns in China still weighed on sentiments.
Fig 7 – Commodities
15-08-2023 16-08-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 84.9 83.5 (1.7) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,902.0 1,891.8 (0.5) Copper (US$/ MT) 8,143.5 8,115.3 (0.3) Zinc (US$/MT) 2,320.0 2,279.3 (1.8) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,142.5 2,143.0 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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18 Aug 2023
Amidst the news of Chinese property developer filing for bankruptcy claims and dismal economic data, there has been growing concerns around uneven recovery in the economy. PBoC has reiterated in order to support the economy it will provide ‘precise and forceful’ policy. However, investors remain wary and expect stronger stimulus response from policymakers. Global Central Banks including Fed and BoE are expected to continue with rate hikes and this has pushed global yields higher. Separately US jobless claims declined more than expected signalling tighter labour market. In Japan, headline inflation remained steady at 3.3% in Jul’23 while core inflation eased to 3.1% (3.3% in Jun’23) much in line with BoJ’s view.
Barring Hang Seng (flat) and Shanghai Comp (higher), global indices ended lower. Markets have anticipated another rate hike by Fed to cool off the economy. Even the recent jobless claims data pointed towards a tighter labour market conditions. US stocks fell the most. Despite news of woes in the real estate sector in China, Shanghai Comp inched up on hopes of stimulus. Sensex fell by 0.6% led by oil and gas and capital goods stocks. It is trading further lower today in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
16-08-2023 17-08-2023 % change Dow Jones 34,766 34,475 (0.8) S & P 500 4,404 4,370 (0.8) FTSE 7,357 7,310 (0.6) Nikkei 31,767 31,626 (0.4) Hang Seng 18,329 18,327 (0.0) Shanghai Comp 3,150 3,164 0.4 Sensex 65,539 65,151 (0.6) Nifty 19,465 19,365 (0.5) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Barring EUR and INR, other global currencies ended higher. DXY edged up further after Fed minutes highlighted hawkish tone and was further supported by stronger economic data (single family home building and US factory output- registered improvement). Yen rebounded and rose by 0.3%. INR is trading stronger today while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
16-08-2023 17-08-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0879 1.0872 (0.1) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2732 1.2747 0.1 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 146.35 145.84 0.3 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.96 83.15 (0.2) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.2985 7.2866 0.2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except China (stable), global yields closed higher. UK’s 10Y yield rose the most by 10bps; highest since Oct’08, as investors are pricing in a steeper move by BoE amidst fears of elevated inflation. India’s 10Y yield rose by 4bps as headline CPI outpaced market expectations. It is trading lower at 7.23% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
16-08-2023 17-08-2023 change in bps US 4.25 4.27 2 UK 4.65 4.75 10 Germany 2.65 2.71 6 Japan 0.63 0.65 2 China 2.57 2.57 0 India 7.21 7.25 4 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
16-08-2023 17-08-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.78 6.85 7 Tbill-182 days 6.93 7.00 7 Tbill-364 days 6.93 7.05 12 G-Sec 2Y 7.14 7.19 5 India OIS-2M 6.70 6.78 8 India OIS-9M 6.92 6.92 0 SONIA int rate benchmark 5.18 5.18 0 US SOFR 5.30 5.30 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 14-08-2023 16-08-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (0.2) (1.0) (0.8) Reverse repo 0.3 0.3 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
11-08-2023 14-08-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (153.7) 1,084.2 1,238.0 Debt 152.4 42.3 (110.2) Equity (306.2) 1,042.0 1,348.2 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 1,001.9 563.4 (438.5) Debt 291.1 75.9 (215.2) Equity 710.8 487.5 (223.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Oil prices rose by 0.8% as US gasoline stocks moderated.
Fig 7 – Commodities
16-08-2023 17-08-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 83.5 84.1 0.8 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,891.8 1,889.4 (0.1) Copper (US$/ MT) 8,115.3 8,200.9 1.1 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,279.3 2,285.5 0.3 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,143.0 2,145.5 0.1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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