Economic Weekly Wrap
28 August 2023 - 01 September 2023
-
28 Aug 2023
Globally, both consumer and business confidence indices took a beating in Aug’23. In Germany, the IFO business climate index fell to 85.7 (est.: 86.8) from 87.4 in Jul’23, while in the US, University of Michigan consumer sentiment index was down to 69.5 in Aug’23 from 71.2. Germany’s final GDP print for Q2CY24 also confirmed stagnation (0% QoQ) in output. Despite signs of slowing growth, both Fed and ECB heads reiterated at Jackson Hole that rates will continue to remain high, as long as inflation is not brought down to targeted levels. Fed Chair even hinted at possibility of more rate hikes if need arises. In China, equity markets will get support from reduction in stamp duty on stock trades from today onwards.
Global indices ended mixed after hawkish commentary from the highly anticipated Jackson Hole meet. US Fed chair reiterated the likelihood of more rate hikes if the inflation remains too high. Sensex ended in red, led by shedding in capital goods and real estate stocks. It is trading higher today in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
24-08-2023 25-08-2023 % change Dow Jones 34,099 34,347 0.7 S & P 500 4,376 4,406 0.7 FTSE 7,334 7,339 0.1 Nikkei 32,287 31,624 (2.1) Hang Seng 18,212 17,956 (1.4) Shanghai Comp 3,082 3,064 (0.6) Sensex 65,252 64,887 (0.6) Nifty 19,387 19,266 (0.6) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies ended lower against the dollar. DXY climbed up by 0.1% even as investors monitored hawkish comments by Fed officials. Yen continued to weaken as investors turned their focus towards any possible intervention by BoJ. INR depreciated as oil prices edged up. However, it is trading stronger today while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
24-08-2023 25-08-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0810 1.0796 (0.1) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2602 1.2578 (0.2) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 145.83 146.44 (0.4) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.58 82.66 (0.1) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.2799 7.2872 (0.1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Barring US (flat), other global yields inched up. 10Y yield in Germany rose the most (+5bps) as ECB chief signalled that rates will continue to remain elevated until inflation is brought down to targeted levels. India’s 10Y yield was up by 1bps as oil prices rose. However, it is trading lower today at 7.18%.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
24-08-2023 25-08-2023 change in bps US 4.24 4.24 0 UK 4.43 4.44 1 Germany 2.51 2.56 5 Japan 0.66 0.66 1 China 2.55 2.57 1 India 7.20 7.20 1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
24-08-2023 25-08-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.80 6.81 1 Tbill-182 days 7.00 7.01 1 Tbill-364 days 7.03 7.02 (1) G-Sec 2Y 7.11 7.11 0 India OIS-2M 6.78 6.78 0 India OIS-9M 6.98 6.98 0 SONIA int rate benchmark 5.19 5.19 0 US SOFR 5.30 5.30 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 24-08-2023 25-08-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (0.3) (0.1) 0.2 Reverse repo 0.3 0 (0.3) Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
23-08-2023 24-08-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 117.5 237.6 120.0 Debt 8.8 (29.7) (38.5) Equity 108.7 267.2 158.5 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 1,001.9 563.4 (438.5) Debt 291.1 75.9 (215.2) Equity 710.8 487.5 (223.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Crude oil prices rose by 1.3% amidst the news of China taking steps to support the economy, which in turn will boost the demand.
Fig 7 – Commodities
24-08-2023 25-08-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 83.4 84.5 1.3 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,916.9 1,915.0 (0.1) Copper (US$/ MT) 8,326.5 8,319.3 (0.1) Zinc (US$/MT) 2,377.8 2,371.0 (0.3) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,157.5 2,150.5 (0.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
-
29 Aug 2023
Market participants await more cues from US macro data to gauge Fed’s future rate actions. US personal consumption expenditure price index and non-farm job additions data are due this week. Investors have assigned 62% probability for rate hike in Nov’23. In Europe, growing economic pains (stagnation in Germany and faltering PMIs) are putting pressure on ECB to pause earlier than anticipated. Further, weakness in global economic activity is likely to continue as China’s industrial profits data showed that profits fell by another (-) 6.7% in Jul’23 following (- ) 8.3% dip in Jun’23, largely owing to steady decline in commodity prices.
Global indices ended higher as investors await key releases (US PCE and jobs data) that will offer guidance on Fed’s rate trajectory. US indices advanced, led by gains in tech stocks. Nikkei surged the most, followed by Shanghai Comp. Sensex too traded in green, led by cap goods and real estate stocks. It is trading higher today, in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
25-08-2023 28-08-2023 % change Dow Jones 34,347 34,560 0.6 S & P 500 4,406 4,433 0.6 FTSE 7,334 7,339 0.1 Nikkei 31,624 32,170 1.7 Hang Seng 17,956 18,131 1.0 Shanghai Comp 3,064 3,099 1.1 Sensex 64,887 64,997 0.2 Nifty 19,266 19,306 0.2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies ended mixed against the dollar. DXY is up by more than 2% this month over expectations of rates remaining high for a longer period (62% chance of hike in Nov’23 from 42% earlier) and was also supported by Fed’s hawkish commentary. INR is trading stronger today while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
25-08-2023 28-08-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0796 1.0819 0.2 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2578 1.2602 0.2 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 146.44 146.54 (0.1) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.66 82.63 0 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.2872 7.2889 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields closed mixed. While 10Y yield in US fell, they were flat in Germany and Japan. Investors await key data releases due this week- US PCE price index, and non-farm payrolls, for cues on Fed’s future rate action. India’s 10Y yield was down by 2bps as oil prices eased. It is trading further lower today at 7.16%.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
25-08-2023 28-08-2023 change in bps US 4.24 4.20 (3) UK 4.43 4.44 1 Germany 2.56 2.56 0 Japan 0.66 0.66 0 China 2.57 2.59 2 India 7.20 7.18 (2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
25-08-2023 28-08-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.81 6.76 (5) Tbill-182 days 7.01 7.00 (1) Tbill-364 days 7.02 7.02 0 G-Sec 2Y 7.11 7.10 (2) India OIS-2M 6.78 6.77 (1) India OIS-9M 6.98 6.96 (2) SONIA int rate benchmark 5.19 5.19 0 US SOFR 5.30 5.30 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 25-08-2023 28-08-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (0.1) (0.3) (0.2) Reverse repo 0 0.2 0.2 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
24-08-2023 25-08-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 237.6 (186.7) (424.3) Debt (29.7) 19.7 49.4 Equity 267.2 (206.5) (473.7) Mutual funds (Rs cr) 60.9 410.1 349.3 Debt (900.6) (31.0) 869.6 Equity 961.4 441.1 (520.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global crude oil prices slipped by 0.1% amidst demand concerns around possible US interest rate hikes.
Fig 7 – Commodities
25-08-2023 28-08-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 84.5 84.4 (0.1) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,915.0 1,920.2 0.3 Copper (US$/ MT) 8,326.5 8,319.3 (0.1) Zinc (US$/MT) 2,377.8 2,371.0 (0.3) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,157.5 2,150.5 (0.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
-
30 Aug 2023
Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin stated that the US economy could reaccelerate rather than slowdown. This will keep inflationary pressures elevated which will require further monetary policy tightening. Market participants widely expect a pause by the Fed in its next meeting. However, the possibility of another rate hike in CY23 has increased. Early indicators suggest that economic activity in Asian economies stalled further, led by manufacturing sector. Flash manufacturing PMI of Japan and Australia both remained below 50, indicating a contraction in activity. In US, existing home sales declined by 2.2% in Jul’23 to 4.07mn units (est. 4.15mn units) amidst surging mortgage rates. The Indian government In its monthly review, noted that inflationary pressures due to global uncertainty and domestic disruptions would require careful monitoring by RBI and the government.
Except US, global stocks closed higher. Investors are reluctant to hold any strong positions awaiting major central bank official’s speeches. Richmond Fed President remained hawkish stressing on the credibility to maintain 2% inflation target. US stocks moderated following some softening in home sales data. Asian stocks inched up tracking recovery in corporate earnings results. Sensex closed flat. It is trading lower today, while other Asian stocks are trading mixed.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
21-08-2023
22-08-2023
% change
Dow Jones
34,464
34,289
(0.5)
S & P 500
4,400
4,388
(0.3)
FTSE
7,258
7,271
0.2
Nikkei
31,566
31,857
0.9
Hang Seng
17,623
17,791
1.0
Shanghai Comp
3,093
3,120
0.9
Sensex
65,216
65,220
0
Nifty
19,394
19,396
0
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies closed mixed. DXY rose by 0.3% as all eyes remain on Fed Chair’s speech at the end of the week. EUR and GBP depreciated by 0.5% and 0.2% respectively. On the other hand, JPY and INR appreciated by 0.2% each. In line with other Asian currencies, INR is trading weaker today.
Fig 2 – Currencies
21-08-2023
22-08-2023
% change
EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD)
1.0896
1.0846
(0.5)
GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD)
1.2756
1.2732
(0.2)
USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD)
146.22
145.89
0.2
USD/INR (INR / 1 USD)
83.11
82.93
0.2
USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD)
7.2832
7.2940
(0.1)
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields closed mixed. UK’s 10Y yield fell by 8bps as market borrowing moderated considerably in Jul’23. Even Germany’s 10Y yield fell by 6bps ahead of major central bank officials’ speeches. Japan’s 10Y yield rose by 2bps. India’s 10Y yield closed flat. It is trading at 7.21% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
21-08-2023
22-08-2023
change in bps
US
4.34
4.32
(1)
UK
4.73
4.65
(8)
Germany
2.70
2.65
(6)
Japan
0.65
0.67
2
China
2.54
2.55
1
India
7.22
7.22
0
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
21-08-2023
22-08-2023
change in bps
Tbill-91 days
6.81
6.80
(1)
Tbill-182 days
7.01
6.99
(2)
Tbill-364 days
7.03
7.01
(2)
G-Sec 2Y
7.13
7.12
(1)
India OIS-2M
6.78
6.77
(1)
India OIS-9M
6.98
6.97
(1)
SONIA int rate benchmark
5.18
5.18
0
US SOFR
5.30
5.30
0
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn
21-08-2023
22-08-2023
change (Rs tn)
Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit)
0.2
0.2
0
Reverse repo
0.3
0.3
0
Repo
0
0
0
Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
18-08-2023
21-08-2023
change (US$ mn/Rs
cr)
FII (US$ mn)
236.1
114.3
(121.8)
Debt
166.9
268.0
101.1
Equity
69.2
(153.7)
(222.9)
Mutual funds (Rs cr)
1,001.9
563.4
(438.5)
Debt
291.1
75.9
(215.2)
Equity
710.8
487.5
(223.3)
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Oil prices moderated amidst fears of dampening demand conditions.
Fig 7 – Commodities
21-08-2023
22-08-2023
% change
Brent crude (US$/bbl)
84.5
84.0
(0.5)
Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce)
1,894.9
1,897.5
0.1
Copper (US$/ MT)
8,239.0
8,330.7
1.1
Zinc (US$/MT)
2,295.8
2,314.5
0.8
Aluminium (US$/MT)
2,144.0
2,177.0
1.5
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
-
31 Aug 2023
Economic activity in advanced economies signalled a significant moderation, led by a drop in momentum in the services sector. Flash composite PMI in US fell to 50.4 in Aug’23 (6-month low) from 52 in Jul’23. In Eurozone, flash composite PMI dropped to a 33-month low at 47 in Aug’23 from 48.6 in Jul’23. Even in UK, the composite PMI fell to 47.9-a 31-month low. With growth faltering, markets now await comments from major central banks at Jackson Hole. Expectations of rate hikes by Fed have diminished after the softer than expected PMI data, which pushed DXY and US10Y lower. Elsewhere, Bank of Korea kept its policy rates steady for the fifth straight time at 3.5% as both inflation and growth weakens. Growth and inflation projections for CY23 were kept unchanged.
Except Shanghai Comp (lower), other global stocks closed higher. This was on the back of expectation of a pause in Fed rate following recent softening of US PMI. Even in Germany and UK, manufacturing and services PMI moderated. S&P 500 rose the most, followed by FTSE. Sensex rose by 0.3% led by banking stocks. It is trading further higher today, in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
22-08-2023 23-08-2023 % change Dow Jones 34,289 34,473 0.5 S & P 500 4,388 4,436 1.1 FTSE 7,271 7,321 0.7 Nikkei 31,857 32,010 0.5 Hang Seng 17,791 17,846 0.3 Shanghai Comp 3,120 3,078 (1.3) Sensex 65,220 65,433 0.3 Nifty 19,396 19,444 0.2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except GBP (flat), other global currencies rose against dollar. DXY fell by 0.1%. JPY and INR gained the most. Weaker than expected macro prints (continued contraction in global services PMIs), dampened expectations of more rate hikes by Fed. INR rose by 0.3%, as oil prices fell. It is trading even higher today in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
22-08-2023 23-08-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0846 1.0863 0.2 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2732 1.2727 0 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 145.89 144.84 0.7 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.93 82.68 0.3 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.2940 7.2785 0.2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Barring Japan (tad higher by 1bps), global yields fell sharply. UK’s 10Y yield fell the most by 18bps followed by US and Germany’s (-13bps each). The increased appetite for sovereign securities was post the release of PMI data of major economies, which pointed some degree of slowdown in economic activity. India’s 10Y yield also fell by 3bps. It is trading at 7.18% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
22-08-2023 23-08-2023 change in bps US 4.32 4.19 (13) UK 4.65 4.47 (18) Germany 2.65 2.52 (13) Japan 0.67 0.67 1 China 2.55 2.55 0 India 7.22 7.19 (3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
22-08-2023 23-08-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.80 6.85 5 Tbill-182 days 6.99 7.03 4 Tbill-364 days 7.01 7.05 4 G-Sec 2Y 7.12 7.13 1 India OIS-2M 6.77 6.77 0 India OIS-9M 6.97 6.96 (1) SONIA int rate benchmark 5.18 5.18 0 US SOFR 5.30 5.30 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn
21-08-2023
22-08-2023
change (Rs tn)
Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit)
0.2
0.2
0
Reverse repo
0.3
0.3
0
Repo
0
0
0
Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
21-08-2023 22-08-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 114.3 (270.6) (384.9) Debt 268.0 (257.5) (525.5) Equity (153.7) (13.1) 140.6 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 1,001.9 563.4 (438.5) Debt 291.1 75.9 (215.2) Equity 710.8 487.5 (223.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Oil prices fell by 1% as demand outlook further weakened.
Fig 7 – Commodities
22-08-2023 23-08-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 84.0 83.2 (1.0) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,897.5 1,915.5 0.9 Copper (US$/ MT) 8,330.7 8,424.3 1.1 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,314.5 2,351.3 1.6 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,177.0 2,179.5 0.1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
-
01 Sep 2023
Macro data from US shows core PCE price index came in line with expectations as it rose by 4.2% (YoY) in Jul’23, tad up from 4.1% in Jun’23, and registered 0.2% MoM gain. This is in line Fed’s trajectory to bring inflation back to 2% mark. Thus investors believe that there is 91% probability of Fed remaining on pause in its Sep’23. Although labour market data needs to be watched more closely for cues. Initial jobless claims for the week ending 26 Aug rose by 228k versus est.: 235k and from 224k the previous week. Non-farm payroll additions data (due today) is awaited keenly for more information. Elsewhere, France Q2 GDP was reaffirmed at 0.5% as per final estimates, but inflation has come to haunt again (4.8% in Aug’23 versus 4.3% in Jul’23). Domestically, India remains the fastest growing economy for quarter ending Jun’23, as it registered 7.8% GDP growth, up from 6.1% in Q4FY23.
Except Nikkei, other global stocks declined, as investors continue to monitor incoming data from the US (jobless claims, PCE index) and await non-farm payroll data. Recent macro trends suggest that Fed is likely to conclude its tightening cycle. Sensex also ended in red, dragged by oil & gas, and banking stocks. However, it is trading higher today, in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
30-08-2023
31-08-2023
% change
Dow Jones
34,890
34,722
(0.5)
S & P 500
4,515
4,508
(0.2)
FTSE
7,474
7,439
(0.5)
Nikkei
32,333
32,619
0.9
Hang Seng
18,483
18,382
(0.5)
Shanghai Comp
3,137
3,120
(0.6)
Sensex
65,087
64,831
(0.4)
Nifty
19,347
19,254
(0.5)
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Barring CNY and JPY (higher), other global currencies ended lower. DXY rose by 0.4%, as weakness in global growth revived demand for safe heavens. EUR and GBP fell the most. INR was down by 0.1%, as oil prices inch up. However, it is trading stronger today, while other Asian currencies are trading lower.
Fig 2 – Currencies
30-08-2023
31-08-2023
% change
EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD)
1.0923
1.0843
(0.7)
GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD)
1.2721
1.2673
(0.4)
USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD)
146.24
145.54
0.5
USD/INR (INR / 1 USD)
82.73
82.79
(0.1)
USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD)
7.2870
7.2588
0.4
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Apart from Japan and China (flat), other global yields closed lower. Germany’s 10Y yield fell the most by 8bps. US 10Y yield was down by 1bps as PCE price index came in line with expectations, thus raising the likelihood of remaining on pause now. India’s 10Y yield also declined by 2bps, following global cues. It is trading just a tad higher at 7.17% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
30-08-2023
31-08-2023
change in bps
US
4.11
4.11
(1)
UK
4.42
4.36
(6)
Germany
2.55
2.47
(8)
Japan
0.65
0.65
0
China
2.58
2.58
0
India
7.19
7.16
(2)
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
30-08-2023
31-08-2023
change in bps
Tbill-91 days
6.81
6.77
(4)
Tbill-182 days
7.01
6.99
(2)
Tbill-364 days
7.03
7.01
(2)
G-Sec 2Y
7.15
7.11
(3)
India OIS-2M
6.73
6.73
0
India OIS-9M
6.95
6.94
(1)
SONIA int rate benchmark
5.19
5.19
0
US SOFR
5.30
5.30
0
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn
30-08-2023
31-08-2023
change (Rs tn)
Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit)
(0.5)
(0.8)
(0.3)
Reverse repo
0.2
0.2
0
Repo
0
0
0
Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
29-08-2023
30-08-2023
change (US$ mn/Rs
cr)
FII (US$ mn)
262.9
4.6
(258.3)
Debt
167.0
3.4
(163.6)
Equity
95.9
1.2
(94.7)
Mutual funds (Rs cr)
60.9
410.1
349.3
Debt
(900.6)
(31.0)
869.6
Equity
961.4
441.1
(520.3)
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Oil prices rose by 1.2% owing to tightening supplies.
Fig 7 – Commodities
30-08-2023
31-08-2023
% change
Brent crude (US$/bbl)
85.9
86.9
1.2
Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce)
1,942.3
1,940.2
(0.1)
Copper (US$/ MT)
8,445.6
8,404.5
(0.5)
Zinc (US$/MT)
2,417.3
2,415.7
(0.1)
Aluminium (US$/MT)
2,201.5
2,208.0
0.3
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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