Economic Weekly Wrap
11 September 2023 - 15 September 2023
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11 Sep 2023
Investors have turned their focus towards the upcoming release of US CPI print which might offer guidance over the course of Fed’s restrictive policy. Additionally, investors will also be monitoring ECB’s rate decision. There is a 40% chance of a 25bps rate hike. European Commission has trimmed the growth forecast down to 0.8% (from 1%) for CY23 and to 1.4% (from 1.7%) for CY24. It has also lowered CPI projections (6.5% from 6.7%).Separately, in Japan, BoJ’s governor signalled about a possible shift away from the negative interest rate policy before the end of the year. The comments triggered currency and benchmark yields to close higher.
Barring Nikkei and Hang Seng, other global indices started the week on a positive note as investors awaited the release of the key macroeconomic data. S&P500 climbed up by 0.7% supported by a strong rally in tech stocks. Sensex rose by 0.8% with Nifty inching away from an all-time high surrounded by optimism around G20 developments and aided by FII flows. Power and auto stocks gained the most. It is trading further higher today, while other Asian stocks are trading mixed.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
13-09-2023 14-09-2023 % change Dow Jones 34,576 34,907 1.0 S & P 500 4,467 4,505 0.8 FTSE 7,526 7,673 2.0 Nikkei 32,707 33,168 1.4 Hang Seng 18,009 18,048 0.2 Shanghai Comp 3,123 3,127 0.1 Sensex 67,467 67,519 0.1 Nifty 20,070 20,103 0.2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except INR (lower), other global currencies ended higher. DXY fell by 0.5% as investors await US CPI data. Apart from this, ECB is also expected to announce its decision this week (40% chance of 25bps hike). JPY made significant gains as policymakers hint at moving away from ultra-loose monetary policy. INR was down by 0.1%. However, it is trading a tad higher today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
13-09-2023 14-09-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0730 1.0643 (0.8) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2490 1.2409 (0.6) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 147.46 147.47 0 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.99 83.04 (0.1) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.2717 7.2789 (0.1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Barring China, other global yields closed higher. 10Y yields in UK and Japan rose the most (+5bps). UK Chancellor’s remarks regarding sticker than excepted inflation and limited fiscal space to combat it, spooked investors. Japan’s 10Y continues to gain, following remarks of BoJ Governor. India’s 10Y yield also inched up by 4bps. However, it is trading lower today at 7.23%.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
13-09-2023 14-09-2023 change in bps US 4.25 4.29 4 UK 4.35 4.28 (7) Germany 2.65 2.59 (6) Japan 0.71 0.72 0 China 2.65 2.63 (1) India 7.20 7.13 (7) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
>13-09-2023 14-09-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.84 6.82 (2) Tbill-182 days 7.03 7.02 (1) Tbill-364 days 7.05 7.05 0 G-Sec 2Y 7.13 7.13 0 India OIS-2M 6.82 6.82 0 India OIS-9M 7.03 6.99 (4) SONIA int rate benchmark 5.19 5.19 0 US SOFR 5.30 5.30 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 13-09-2023 14-09-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (0.2) 0 0.2 Reverse repo 0.2 0.2 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
12-09-2023 13-09-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 31.1 (160.5) (191.6) Debt 70.9 115.9 45.0 Equity (39.9) (276.4) (236.6) Mutual funds (Rs cr) 60.9 410.1 349.3 Debt (900.6) (31.0) 869.6 Equity 961.4 441.1 (520.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research, Mutual fund data as of 22nd and 23rd Aug
Oil prices closed flat, as investors await US crude oil inventory and CPI data.
Fig 7 – Commodities
13-09-2023 14-09-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 91.9 93.7 2.0 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,908.1 1,910.8 0.1 Copper (US$/ MT) 8,397.5 8,372.3 (0.3) Zinc (US$/MT) 2,497.2 2,542.0 1.8 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,217.5 2,224.5 0.3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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12 Sep 2023
Investors have turned their focus towards the upcoming release of US CPI print which might offer guidance over the course of Fed’s restrictive policy. Additionally, investors will also be monitoring ECB’s rate decision. There is a 40% chance of a 25bps rate hike. European Commission has trimmed the growth forecast down to 0.8% (from 1%) for CY23 and to 1.4% (from 1.7%) for CY24. It has also lowered CPI projections (6.5% from 6.7%).Separately, in Japan, BoJ’s governor signalled about a possible shift away from the negative interest rate policy before the end of the year. The comments triggered currency and benchmark yields to close higher.
Barring Nikkei and Hang Seng, other global indices started the week on a positive note as investors awaited the release of the key macroeconomic data. S&P500 climbed up by 0.7% supported by a strong rally in tech stocks. Sensex rose by 0.8% with Nifty inching away from an all-time high surrounded by optimism around G20 developments and aided by FII flows. Power and auto stocks gained the most. It is trading further higher today, while other Asian stocks are trading mixed.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
8-09-2023 11-09-2023 % change Dow Jones 34,577 34,664 0.3 S & P 500 4,457 4,487 0.7 FTSE 7,478 7,497 0.2 Nikkei 32,607 32,468 (0.4) Hang Seng 18,202 18,096 (0.6) Shanghai Comp 3,117 3,143 0.8 Sensex 66,599 67,127 0.8 Nifty 19,820 19,996 0.9 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except INR (lower), other global currencies ended higher. DXY fell by 0.5% as investors await US CPI data. Apart from this, ECB is also expected to announce its decision this week (40% chance of 25bps hike). JPY made significant gains as policymakers hint at moving away from ultra-loose monetary policy. INR was down by 0.1%. However, it is trading a tad higher today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
8-09-2023 11-09-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0700 1.0750 0.5 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2468 1.2509 0.3 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 147.83 146.59 0.8 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.95 83.03 (0.1) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.3439 7.2891 0.8 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Barring China, other global yields closed higher. 10Y yields in UK and Japan rose the most (+5bps). UK Chancellor’s remarks regarding sticker than excepted inflation and limited fiscal space to combat it, spooked investors. Japan’s 10Y continues to gain, following remarks of BoJ Governor. India’s 10Y yield also inched up by 4bps. However, it is trading lower today at 7.23%.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
8-09-2023 11-09-2023 change in bps US 4.26 4.29 2 UK 4.42 4.47 5 Germany 2.61 2.64 3 Japan 0.66 0.71 5 China 2.67 2.66 (1) India 7.21 7.25 4 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
8-09-2023 11-09-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.85 6.82 (3) Tbill-182 days 7.00 6.99 (1) Tbill-364 days 6.98 6.98 0 G-Sec 2Y 7.12 7.13 1 India OIS-2M 6.79 6.81 2 India OIS-9M 7.01 7.04 3 SONIA int rate benchmark 5.19 5.19 0 US SOFR 5.31 5.30 (1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 8-09-2023 11-09-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (0.8) (0.4) 0.4 Reverse repo 0 0.2 0.2 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
7-09-2023 8-09-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (37.4) (10.9) 26.6 Debt 49.0 0.8 (48.2) Equity (86.5) (11.7) 74.8 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 60.9 410.1 349.3 Debt (900.6) (31.0) 869.6 Equity 961.4 441.1 (520.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research, Mutual fund data as of 22nd and 23rd Aug
Oil prices closed flat, as investors await US crude oil inventory and CPI data.
Fig 7 – Commodities
8-09-2023 11-09-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 90.7 90.6 0 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,919.1 1,922.3 0.2 Copper (US$/ MT) 8,229.0 8,375.5 1.8 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,420.9 2,485.0 2.6 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,183.5 2,205.5 1.0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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13 Sep2023
Investors braced for the release of the CPI print and offer clarity on how long will Fed continue to tighten the policy rates. Separately, in Japan, corporate confidence took a beating for both manufacturers (4 vs 12) and non-manufacturers (23 vs 32). This was largely on account of higher cost of raw materials, subdued domestic and global demand. In South Korea, the unemployment rate dropped to 2%, its lowest level since Jun’99. On the domestic front, CPI inflation cooled off in Aug’23 (6.9% from 7.4% in Jul’23) led by easing in food prices. Government’s supply side measure came into play to a certain extent. Industrial growth data surprised positively as growth climbed up to 5.7% in Jul’23 led by mining and electricity sector.
Global indices ended mixed. US indices ended in red and were dragged down by losses in tech sector. FTSE rose by 0.4% amidst news of UK jobs reports tilting towards dovish side and unemployment coming in line with expectations. Sensex too closed higher led by gains in IT sector. Positive macroeconomic news (inflation cooled off and higher industrial growth) is expected to support the markets. It is trading higher today, while Asian stocks are trading lower.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
11-09-2023 12-09-2023 % change Dow Jones 34,664 34,646 (0.1) S & P 500 4,487 4,462 (0.6) FTSE 7,497 7,528 0.4 Nikkei 32,468 32,776 1.0 Hang Seng 18,096 18,026 (0.4) Shanghai Comp 3,143 3,137 (0.2) Sensex 67,127 67,221 0.1 Nifty 19,996 19,993 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies closed mixed. JPY (-0.3%) and GBP (-0.2%) fell most against the dollar. DXY regained ground and rose by 0.1%, as investors turn jittery ahead of US CPI print. A higher than expected print can raise probability of Fed rate hike, thus reviving dollar demand. INR was up by 0.1%. However, it is trading lower today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
11-09-2023 12-09-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0750 1.0754 0 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2509 1.2490 (0.2) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 146.59 147.08 (0.3) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 83.03 82.92 0.1 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.2891 7.2923 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields closed mixed. While 10Y yields in Germany, Japan and China ended flat, it closed lower elsewhere. 10Y yield in UK fell the most (-6bps). BoE’s aggressive sale of bonds (even at losses) is raising concerns amongst investors. Following global cues, India’s 10Y yield also fell by 2bps, and is trading further lower today at 7.21%.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
11-09-2023 12-09-2023 change in bps US 4.29 4.28 (1) UK 4.47 4.42 (6) Germany 2.64 2.64 0 Japan 0.71 0.71 0 China 2.66 2.66 0 India 7.25 7.23 (2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
11-09-2023 12-09-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.82 6.85 3 Tbill-182 days 6.99 7.03 4 Tbill-364 days 6.98 7.00 2 G-Sec 2Y 7.12 7.13 1 India OIS-2M 6.81 6.81 0 India OIS-9M 7.04 7.03 (1) SONIA int rate benchmark 5.19 5.19 0 US SOFR 5.30 5.30 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 11-09-2023 12-09-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (0.4) (0.3) 0.1 Reverse repo 0.2 0.2 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
8-09-2023 11-09-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (10.9) 98.9 109.7 Debt 0.8 (78.1) (78.9) Equity (11.7) 177.0 188.6 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 60.9 410.1 349.3 Debt (900.6) (31.0) 869.6 Equity 961.4 441.1 (520.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research, Mutual fund data as of 22nd and 23rd Aug
Oil prices rose to highest since mid-Nov’22, led by supply-side concerns.
Fig 7 – Commodities
11-09-2023 12-09-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 90.6 92.1 1.6 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,922.3 1,913.7 (0.4) Copper (US$/ MT) 8,375.5 8,367.5 (0.1) Zinc (US$/MT) 2,485.0 2,450.0 (1.4) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,205.5 2,196.5 (0.4) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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14 Sep 2023
Investors tracked US CPI which reflected prices have heated up at the fastest pace in over 14-months (3.7% in Aug’23). This was led by higher prices of gas and shelter. On the other hand, core inflation slowed down to 4.3% in Aug’23 (4.7% in Jul’23). Investor now anticipate Fed to stand pat in the next week meet while there is likelihood of rate hike in the Nov’23 meet. As per the monthly GDP report, UK’s economy contracted by (-) 0.5% in Jul’23 against an expectation of (-) 0.2% versus 0.5% growth in Jun’23. This was largely on account of strikes by workers and teachers along with unusually wet weather conditions weighing in on certain sectors. Separately, Australia’s unemployment rate remained steady at 3.7% in Aug’23.
Global indices ended mixed. Investors monitored slightly hotter-than-expected inflation print from US (0.6% from 0.2% in Jul’23 on MoM basis). Given this, investor will now turn their focus towards Fed’s policy. Sensex closed in green on hopes of a Fed pause. It was further supported by gains in consumer durable and oil & gas stocks. It is trading higher today, in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
12-09-2023 13-09-2023 % change Dow Jones 34,646 34,576 (0.2) S & P 500 4,462 4,467 0.1 FTSE 7,528 7,526 0 Nikkei 32,776 32,707 (0.2) Hang Seng 18,026 18,009 (0.1) Shanghai Comp 3,137 3,123 (0.4) Sensex 67,221 67,467 0.4 Nifty 19,993 20,070 0.4 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Amongst global currencies, JPY (-0.3%) and EUR (-0.2%) fell most against the dollar, while CNY gained. DXY rose by 0.1%, as slightly higher than expected US CPI and inch up in energy prices continues to drive uncertainty around Fed’s Nov policy decision. INR fell by 0.1%. However, it is trading higher today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
12-09-2023 13-09-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0754 1.0730 (0.2) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2490 1.2490 0 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 147.08 147.46 (0.3) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.92 82.99 (0.1) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.2923 7.2717 0.3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields closed mixed. While 10Y yield in Germany inched up, it fell the most in UK and US. More than expected slowdown in Britain’s economy (GDP) pushed the yields down. In the US, higher energy prices (CPI) is being viewed with caution. India’s 10Y yield was down by 2bps, as oil prices declined. It is trading even lower today at 7.16%, supported by domestic CPI.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
12-09-2023 13-09-2023 change in bps US 4.28 4.25 (3) UK 4.42 4.35 (7) Germany 2.64 2.65 1 Japan 0.71 0.71 0 China 2.66 2.65 (1) India 7.23 7.20 (3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
12-09-2023 13-09-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.85 6.84 (1) Tbill-182 days 7.03 7.03 0 Tbill-364 days 7.00 7.05 5 G-Sec 2Y 7.12 7.13 1 India OIS-2M 6.81 6.82 1 India OIS-9M 7.03 7.03 0 SONIA int rate benchmark 5.19 5.19 0 US SOFR 5.30 5.30 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 12-09-2023 13-09-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (0.3) (0.2) 0.1 Reverse repo 0.2 0.2 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
11-09-2023 12-09-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 98.9 31.1 (67.8) Debt (78.1) 70.9 149.0 Equity 177.0 (39.9) (216.8) Mutual funds (Rs cr) 60.9 410.1 349.3 Debt (900.6) (31.0) 869.6 Equity 961.4 441.1 (520.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research, Mutual fund data as of 22nd and 23rd Aug
Oil prices fell by 0.2%, as slight uptick in US CPI continues to leave the door open for one more Fed rate hike in CY23.
Fig 7 – Commodities
12-09-2023 13-09-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 92.1 91.9 (0.2) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,913.7 1,908.1 (0.3) Copper (US$/ MT) 8,367.5 8,397.5 0.4 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,450.0 2,497.2 1.9 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,196.5 2,217.5 1.0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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15 Sep 2023
China’s economy signalled early signs of recovery on the back of better than expected data led by improvement in retail sales (4.6% from 2.5% in Jul’23) and industrial output (4.5% from 3.7% in Jul’23). However, fixed investment moderated marginally. Additionally, US retail sales also climbed higher than anticipated (0.6% vs est 0.1%). Separately, ECB’s raised rates by 25bps to a record high to 4% and signalled the end of rate tightening cycle. It has also trimmed growth forecasts for the next 3-years down to 0.7% in CY23 and 1% in CY24. On the other hand, it raised its inflation projection to 5.6% (CY23) and 3.2% (CY24). Furthermore, China’s PBoC in order to boost liquidity and aid in economic recovery, has reduced the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 25bps for the 2nd time in a row down to 7.4%.
Global indices ended higher as investors’ monitor strong macroeconomic data from across the globe. Supported by better than expected data (higher retail sales and marginal increase in weekly jobless claims) US indices climbed higher. Sensex closed higher led by strong global cues. Real estate and oil & gas stocks advance the most. It is trading higher today, in line with Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
13-09-2023 14-09-2023 % change Dow Jones 34,576 34,907 1.0 S & P 500 4,467 4,505 0.8 FTSE 7,526 7,673 2.0 Nikkei 32,707 33,168 1.4 Hang Seng 18,009 18,048 0.2 Shanghai Comp 3,123 3,127 0.1 Sensex 67,467 67,519 0.1 Nifty 20,070 20,103 0.2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Barring JPY (flat), other global currencies fell against the dollar. DXY rose by 0.6% to reach highest level since early Mar’23, as steady economic momentum revived fears of elevated rates for long in the US. INR fell by 0.1%, as oil prices continue to inch up. INR remains under pressure, while other Asian currencies are higher, supported by China’s RRR cut announcement.
Fig 2 – Currencies
13-09-2023 14-09-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0730 1.0643 (0.8) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2490 1.2409 (0.6) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 147.46 147.47 0 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.99 83.04 (0.1) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.2717 7.2789 (0.1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields closed mixed. While 10Y yield in US inched up again, it fell in UK and Germany. Better than expected data from the US has revived fears of rate hike by Fed. ECB President hinted that Sep’23 rate hike might be the final one in this cycle. India’s 10Y yield fell by 7bps, on hopes of sovereign bond being included in EM bond index. However it is trading a tad higher at 7.14% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
13-09-2023 14-09-2023 change in bps US 4.25 4.29 4 UK 4.35 4.28 (7) Germany 2.65 2.59 (6) Japan 0.71 0.72 0 China 2.65 2.63 (1) India 7.20 7.13 (7) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
13-09-2023 14-09-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.84 6.82 (2) Tbill-182 days 7.03 7.02 (1) Tbill-364 days 7.05 7.05 0 G-Sec 2Y 7.13 7.13 0 India OIS-2M 6.82 6.82 0 India OIS-9M 7.03 6.99 (4) SONIA int rate benchmark 5.19 5.19 0 US SOFR 5.30 5.30 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 13-09-2023 14-09-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (0.2) 0 0.2 Reverse repo 0.2 0.2 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
12-09-2023 13-09-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 31.1 (160.5) (191.6) Debt 70.9 115.9 45.0 Equity (39.9) (276.4) (236.6) Mutual funds (Rs cr) 60.9 410.1 349.3 Debt (900.6) (31.0) 869.6 Equity 961.4 441.1 (520.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research, Mutual fund data as of 22nd and 23rd Aug
Oil prices rose by 2%, buoyed by tightening supplies (deficit in Q4 predicted).
Fig 7 – Commodities
13-09-2023 14-09-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 91.9 93.7 2.0 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,908.1 1,910.8 0.1 Copper (US$/ MT) 8,397.5 8,372.3 (0.3) Zinc (US$/MT) 2,497.2 2,542.0 1.8 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,217.5 2,224.5 0.3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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