Economic Weekly Wrap
18 September 2023 - 25 September 2023
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18 Sep 2023
US industrial production moderated to 0.4% in Aug’23 (est. 0.1%) from 0.7% in Jul’23. Preliminary reading of consumer sentiment index too weakened to 67.7 in Sep’23 from 69.5 in Aug’23. Inflation expectations of consumers for both long-term and short-term also eased markedly in Sep’23. The data has bolstered views that the Fed is likely to leave interest rates unchanged when it meets next week. However, markets will await for cues from the Fed’s dot plot to assess the future course of rates. Apart from Fed, central bank meetings in UK and Japan will also be closely watched. Central Bank decisions in EM countries such as Brazil, Taiwan, Indonesia etc, are also due this week. In India, investors will continue to monitor the growing risks to inflation from erratic rainfall and higher oil prices.
Global indices ended mixed. Investors remained cautious ahead of the Fed policy decision. There is expectation that another rate hike may be reflected in the dot plot for this year. S&P 500 and Dow Jones fell the most. Asian stocks such as Nikkei and Hang Seng inched up tracking upbeat data of China. Sensex rose by 0.5% led by auto and technology stocks. However, it is trading lower today, while other Asian stocks are trading mixed.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
14-09-2023 15-09-2023 % change Dow Jones 34,907 34,618 (0.8) S & P 500 4,505 4,450 (1.2) FTSE 7,673 7,711 0.5 Nikkei 33,168 33,533 1.1 Hang Seng 18,048 18,183 0.7 Shanghai Comp 3,127 3,118 (0.3) Sensex 67,519 67,839 0.5 Nifty 20,103 20,192 0.4 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies ended mixed against the dollar. DXY fell by 0.1% as University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index moderated in Sep’23. JPY depreciated to a near 10-month low. INR too depreciated to a fresh record-low amidst higher oil prices. However, it is trading stronger today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
14-09-2023 15-09-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0643 1.0657 0.1 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2409 1.2383 (0.2) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 147.47 147.85 (0.3) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 83.04 83.18 (0.2) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.2789 7.2758 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except Japan (stable), global yields closed higher. Germany and UK’s 10Y yield rose the most by 8bps each. In UK, BOE’s inflation expectation survey for next 12-months inched up, which impacted its yields. US 10Y yield also rose by 5bps ahead of Fed’s policy decision. India’s 10Y yield rose by 7bps tracking auction results. It is trading flat today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
14-09-2023 15-09-2023 change in bps US 4.29 4.33 5 UK 4.28 4.36 8 Germany 2.59 2.68 8 Japan 0.72 0.72 0 China 2.63 2.67 3 India 7.13 7.20 7 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
14-09-2023 15-09-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.82 6.82 0 Tbill-182 days 7.02 7.02 0 Tbill-364 days 7.05 7.04 (1) G-Sec 2Y 7.13 7.14 1 India OIS-2M 6.82 6.82 0 India OIS-9M 6.99 7.03 4 SONIA int rate benchmark 5.19 5.18 0 US SOFR 5.30 5.30 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 14-09-2023 15-09-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) 0 0.5 0.5 Reverse repo 0.2 0.2 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
13-09-2023 14-09-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (160.5) 139.5 300.1 Debt 115.9 56.5 (59.4) Equity (276.4) 83.0 359.4 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 169.0 1,459.8 1,290.7 Debt (471.2) 1,115.4 1,586.6 Equity 640.3 344.4 (295.9) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research, Mutual fund data as of 22nd and 23rd Aug
Oil prices rose amidst hopes of demand revival led by positive data from China.
Fig 7 – Commodities
14-09-2023 15-09-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 93.7 93.9 0.2 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,910.8 1,923.9 0.7 Copper (US$/ MT) 8,372.3 8,350.4 (0.3) Zinc (US$/MT) 2,542.0 2,490.1 (2.0) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,224.5 2,190.0 (1.6) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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20 Sep 2023
US housing starts fell by 11.3% to 1.28mn units in Aug’23 (est. 1.45mn units), from 1.45mn units in Jul’23, as rising mortgage rates dented demand. In the Eurozone, CPI inflation was revised lower to 5.2% in Aug’23 versus 5.3% (flash estimate). Export growth in Japan declined for the second straight month in Aug’23, falling by 0.8%, versus a 0.3% decline in Jul’23, led by an 11% fall in exports to China. Signifying weak domestic demand, imports fell by 17.8% in Aug’23. Separately, minutes of RBA meeting revealed that more rate hikes cannot be ruled out. OECD revised global growth forecast upwards to 2.7% from 2.4% estimated earlier. India’s growth forecast for FY24 was also revised up to 6.3% from 6%. Even RBI expressed confidence in India’s growth trajectory despite concerns over inflation.
Global indices ended mixed. US stocks edged lower as rising oil prices might put Fed in a quandary. Market is expecting a hawkish pause from the Fed. Amongst Asian stocks, Hang Seng saw modest gains amidst news of a property developer gaining approval to extend an onshore loan. Sensex fell by 0.4%, dragged down by real estate and technology stocks. It is trading further lower today, while other Asian stocks are trading mixed.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
18-09-2023 19-09-2023 % change Dow Jones 34,624 34,518 (0.3) S & P 500 4,454 4,444 (0.2) FTSE 7,653 7,660 0.1 Nikkei 33,533 33,243 (0.9) Hang Seng 17,931 17,997 0.4 Shanghai Comp 3,126 3,125 0 Sensex 67,839 67,597 (0.4) Nifty 20,192 20,133 (0.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except GBP (higher), other global currencies ended weaker. Investors await policy decisions of major central banks such as Fed, BoE and BoJ. JPY depreciated the most as BoJ is expected to maintain its policy stance. INR depreciated to a fresh record-low in the last trading session, but is trading marginally stronger today. Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
18-09-2023 19-09-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0692 1.0679 (0.1) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2383 1.2392 0.1 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 147.61 147.86 (0.2) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 83.18 83.27 (0.1) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.2912 7.2973 (0.1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields closed mixed.US 10Y yield rose by 6bps as a hawkish pause is expected in the upcoming policy by Fed. UK’s 10Y yield fell by 5bps awaiting CPI data. Japan and China’s 10Y yield closed stable. In China unchanged policy rate will keep yields range bound. For Japan as well, ultra-loose monetary policy is expected to continue. India’s 10Y yield is trading lower at 7.17% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
18-09-2023 19-09-2023 change in bps US 4.30 4.36 6 UK 4.39 4.34 (5) Germany 2.71 2.74 3 Japan 0.72 0.72 0 China 2.67 2.68 0 India 7.20 7.19 (1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
18-09-2023 19-09-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.82 6.85 3 Tbill-182 days 7.02 7.06 4 Tbill-364 days 7.04 7.07 3 G-Sec 2Y 7.14 7.14 1 India OIS-2M 6.82 6.83 0 India OIS-9M 7.03 7.03 0 SONIA int rate benchmark 5.19 5.19 0 US SOFR 5.31 5.31 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 15-09-2023 18-09-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) 0.5 1.5 1.0 Reverse repo 0.2 0.2 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
14-09-2023 15-09-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 139.5 (29.3) (168.8) Debt 56.5 (65.5) (122.0) Equity 83.0 36.2 (46.8) Mutual funds (Rs cr) 169.0 1,459.8 1,290.7 Debt (471.2) 1,115.4 1,586.6 Equity 640.3 344.4 (295.9) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Mutual fund data as of 11 Sep 2023 and 12 Sep 2023, Markets in India were closed on 19 Sep 2023
Oil prices moderated by 0.1% awaiting US inventory data.
Fig 7 – Commodities
18-09-2023 19-09-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 94.4 94.3 (0.1) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,933.8 1,931.4 (0.1) Copper (US$/ MT) 8,299.8 8,233.5 (0.8) Zinc (US$/MT) 2,510.8 2,467.5 (1.7) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,220.0 2,215.5 (0.2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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21 Sep2023
In line with market expectations, the Fed kept its policy rate steady at 5.25%-5.5%. However, Fed’s projection indicate the possibility of another 25bps rate hike this year. The projections also suggest a modest 50bps rate cut next year versus 100bps projected in Jun’23, implying that rates are going to be higher for longer. Growth projections for 2023 and 2024 were revised up to 2.1% (from 1.8%) and 1.5% (from 1.1%) respectively. Inflation is expected to moderate, and will reach the Fed’s target of 2% only in 2026. Separately, inflation in UK edged down to an 18-month low of 6.7% in Aug’23, (est. 7%) from 6.8% in Jul’23. This has raised the possibility that the BoE may not hike rates when it meets today.
Except FTSE (higher), global equity indices ended lower. Fed’s hawkish pause impacted market sentiments. Further, 12 out of 19 Fed officials expected fund rate to rise again in CY23. Thus, anticipation of some liquidity tightening impacted equity market outlook. S&P 500 fell the most followed by Nikkei. Sensex fell by 1.2%, dragged down by real estate, metal and banking stocks. It is trading further lower today, in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
19-09-2023 20-09-2023 % change Dow Jones 34,518 34,441 (0.2) S & P 500 4,444 4,402 (0.9) FTSE 7,660 7,732 0.9 Nikkei 33,243 33,024 (0.7) Hang Seng 17,997 17,886 (0.6) Shanghai Comp 3,125 3,109 (0.5) Sensex 67,597 66,801 (1.2) Nifty 20,133 19,901 (1.2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies ended mixed. DXY rose by 0.2% after hawkish commentary from Fed. GBP depreciated by 0.4% as UK’s inflation moderated unexpectedly in Aug’23, putting the BoE in a dilemma. INR recovered from its record low amidst intervention by RBI. However, it is trading weaker today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
19-09-2023 20-09-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0679 1.0661 (0.2) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2392 1.2344 (0.4) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 147.86 148.34 (0.3) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 83.27 83.08 0.2 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.2973 7.2863 0.2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields closed mixed.US 10Y yield rose by 5bps as Fed remained cautious over sticky inflation while expecting a soft landing. UK’s 10Y yield fell by 13bps as CPI surprised on the downside ahead of BoE policy. Germany’s 10Y yield also fell by 4bps as PPI remained in deflation. India’s 10Y yield fell by 2bps. It is trading higher at 7.2% today, due to tight liquidity conditions.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
19-09-2023 20-09-2023 change in bps US 4.36 4.41 5 UK 4.34 4.22 (13) Germany 2.74 2.70 (4) Japan 0.72 0.73 1 China 2.68 2.68 0 India 7.19 7.18 (2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
19-09-2023 20-09-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.85 6.85 0 Tbill-182 days 7.06 7.06 0 Tbill-364 days 7.07 7.08 1 G-Sec 2Y 7.14 7.14 1 India OIS-2M 6.83 6.83 0 India OIS-9M 7.04 7.03 (1) SONIA int rate benchmark 5.19 5.19 0 US SOFR 5.31 5.31 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 18-09-2023 20-09-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) 1.5 1.1 (0.4) Reverse repo 0.2 0.2 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
15-09-2023 18-09-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (29.3) (65.0) (35.7) Debt (65.5) 24.6 90.1 Equity 36.2 (89.6) (125.8) Mutual funds (Rs cr) 169.0 1,459.8 1,290.7 Debt (471.2) 1,115.4 1,586.6 Equity 640.3 344.4 (295.9) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Mutual fund data as of 11 Sep 2023 and 12 Sep 2023, Markets in India were closed on 19 Sep 2023
Oil prices moderated by 0.9% anticipating elevated policy rates by Fed.
Fig 7 – Commodities
19-09-2023 20-09-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 94.3 93.5 (0.9) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,931.4 1,930.3 (0.1) Copper (US$/ MT) 8,233.5 8,281.5 0.6 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,467.5 2,526.3 2.4 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,215.5 2,256.0 1.8 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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22 Sep 2023
Sell-off in global bonds and equities continued amidst the increased possibility of higher for longer US rates. US 10Y yield rose to its highest since Oct’07. Separately, Bank of England paused its rate hike and kept rates steady at 5.25%, with a 5-4 majority. It noted that inflationary pressures have eased, and impact of rate hikes has been felt on growth and labour market. In contrast, core CPI inflation in Japan rose by 3.1% in Aug’23 (est. 3%), staying above BoJ’s target for 17-straight months. Even so, BoJ maintained its ultra-dovish policy. Flash PMIs for Japan indicated a sharp drop in manufacturing activity. Services PMI too moderated to an 8-month low. JP Morgan has decided to include India’s g-sec bonds in its emerging markets index (GBI-EM) from 28 Jun 2024 for 10 months. Government bonds worth US$ 330bn are said to be eligible. This would help in garnering much needed foreign inflows and should support INR and bond yields.
Global equity indices ended lower. Market remained cautious tracking major central bank policy decisions where both Fed and BoE walked on the same lines of hawkish pause based on underlying growth, inflation mix. S&P 500 and Nikkei fell the most. Sensex fell by 0.9%, dragged down by banking and auto stocks. It is trading higher today, while Asian stocks are trading mixed.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
20-09-2023 21-09-2023 % change Dow Jones 34,441 34,070 (1.1) S & P 500 4,402 4,330 (1.6) FTSE 7,732 7,679 (0.7) Nikkei 33,024 32,571 (1.4) Hang Seng 17,886 17,655 (1.3) Shanghai Comp 3,109 3,085 (0.8) Sensex 66,801 66,230 (0.9) Nifty 19,901 19,742 (0.8) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies ended mixed. DXY edged up amidst expectations of higher for longer US rates. GBP slipped by 0.4% as BoE kept rates steady. INR closed flat. It is trading stronger today buoyed by India’s inclusion in JP Morgan’s bond index. Other Asian currencies are trading lower.
Fig 2 – Currencies
20-09-2023 21-09-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0661 1.0661 0 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2344 1.2298 (0.4) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 148.34 147.59 0.5 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 83.08 83.09 0 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.2863 7.3064 (0.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except China and India (lower), global yields closed higher. US and UK’s 10Y yield rose the most by 9bps each. US 10Y yield was supported by buoyant labour market data. UK’s on the other hand followed a sell off post BoE ‘s decision and rising borrowing numbers. India’s 10Y is trading lower today, supported by inclusion of Indian bonds in JPMorgan’s emerging-market index.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
20-09-2023 21-09-2023 change in bps US 4.41 4.49 9 UK 4.22 4.31 9 Germany 2.70 2.74 4 Japan 0.73 0.74 2 China 2.68 2.68 (1) India 7.18 7.16 (1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
20-09-2023 21-09-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.85 6.79 (6) Tbill-182 days 7.06 7.03 (3) Tbill-364 days 7.08 7.07 (1) G-Sec 2Y 7.14 7.14 1 India OIS-2M 6.83 6.84 1 India OIS-9M 7.03 7.03 0 SONIA int rate benchmark 5.19 5.18 0 US SOFR 5.31 5.30 (1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 20-09-2023 21-09-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) 1.5 1.5 0 Reverse repo 0.2 0.2 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
18-09-2023 19-09-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (65.0) (506.4) (441.4) Debt 24.6 (137.0) (161.6) Equity (89.6) (369.5) (279.9) Mutual funds (Rs cr) 169.0 1,459.8 1,290.7 Debt (471.2) 1,115.4 1,586.6 Equity 640.3 344.4 (295.9) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Mutual fund data as of 11 Sep 2023 and 12 Sep 2023, Markets in India were closed on 19 Sep 2023
Oil prices moderated amidst expectation of higher interest rate denting demand.
Fig 7 – Commodities
20-09-2023 21-09-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 93.5 93.3 (0.2) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,930.3 1,920.0 (0.5) Copper (US$/ MT) 8,281.5 8,129.8 (1.8) Zinc (US$/MT) 2,526.3 2,488.5 (1.5) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,256.0 2,212.0 (2.0) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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25 Sep 2023
Flash PMIs for major economies show that services activity in the US slowed unexpectedly, while in UK it continues to weaken further in Sep’23. In Eurozone, while Germany’s activity contracted at a slower pace, it accelerated in France. UK’s retail sales data also confirmed weaker than expected improvement in Aug’23 (- 1.4% YoY versus est.: -1.2% and -3.1% in Jul’23). In case of manufacturing, Eurozone (led by Germany and France) and UK, continue to show signs of stress as per flash PMIs for Sep’23. Activity in US also declined, albeit at a slower pace. These data points pose a challenge to Fed’s higher rates for longer period policy. On the domestic front, progress of southwest monsoon has been 6% below LPA and Kharif sowing has been slightly higher by 0.3% compared to last year.
Global indices ended mixed as investors monitored rate decisions by global central banks. Amongst other indices, Nikkei dropped the most followed by Dow Jones. Sensex too ended in red and was dragged down by losses in consumer durable and real estate stocks. It is trading higher today while other Asian indices are trading mixed.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
21-09-2023 22-09-2023 % change Dow Jones 34,070 33,964 (0.3) S & P 500 4,330 4,320 (0.2) FTSE 7,679 7,684 0.1 Nikkei 32,571 32,402 (0.5) Hang Seng 17,655 18,057 2.3 Shanghai Comp 3,085 3,132 1.5 Sensex 66,230 66,009 (0.3) Nifty 19,742 19,674 (0.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies ended mixed. DXY firmed up after US Fed warned of more tightening in the near term. GBP slipped amidst concerns about the economy being on the brink of recession. Yen declined, with investors now expecting a possible government intervention to support the currency. INR strengthened on hopes of increased foreign flows. It is trading weaker today while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
21-09-2023 22-09-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0661 1.0653 (0.1) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2298 1.2241 (0.5) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 147.59 148.37 (0.5) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 83.09 82.94 0.2 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.3064 7.2990 0.1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields closed mixed. While 10Y yield in US and UK fell by 6bps each, they were flat in Germany and Japan. Unexpected slowdown in US’ services sector and continued decline in activity in UK impacted investor sentiments. India’s 10Y yield rose by 2bps, as oil prices remain elevated. However, following global cues, it is trading lower again at 7.16%.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
21-09-2023 22-09-2023 change in bps US 4.49 4.43 (6) UK 4.31 4.25 (6) Germany 2.74 2.74 0 Japan 0.74 0.75 0 China 2.68 2.69 2 India 7.16 7.19 2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
21-09-2023 22-09-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.79 6.86 7 Tbill-182 days 7.03 7.06 3 Tbill-364 days 7.07 7.07 0 G-Sec 2Y 7.14 7.15 0 India OIS-2M 6.84 6.83 (1) India OIS-9M 7.03 7.04 1 SONIA int rate benchmark 5.18 5.18 0 US SOFR 5.30 5.30 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 21-09-2023 22-09-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) 1.5 1.2 (0.3) Reverse repo 0.2 0 (0.2) Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
20-09-2023 21-09-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (506.4) (255.4) 251.0 Debt (137.0) (29.9) 107.1 Equity (369.5) (225.5) 143.9 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 169.0 1,459.8 1,290.7 Debt (471.2) 1,115.4 1,586.6 Equity 640.3 344.4 (295.9) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research, Mutual fund data as of 11 and 12 Sep
Oil prices remained flat, dragged by prospects of weakening demand.
Fig 7 – Commodities
21-09-2023 22-09-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 93.3 93.3 0 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,920.0 1,925.2 0.3 Copper (US$/ MT) 8,129.8 8,161.7 0.4 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,488.5 2,541.3 2.1 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,212.0 2,240.5 1.3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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