Economic Weekly Wrap
30 January 2023 - 03 February 2023
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30 Jan 2023
Investors will be eyeing Fed’s rate decision scheduled later this week. Markets have already priced in smaller rate hike (25bps) and are also looking for guidance on future policy. US payrolls, ISM survey and Consumer confidence data points are awaited this week, to further attest to Fed’s dovish outlook. Post Fed’s decision, BoE is also expected to follow the same path. Any deviation will be carefully monitored. Domestic market this week will be guided by the release of India’s federal budget showcasing government’s spending and fiscal consolidation path for the year ahead.
Barring Sensex (lower), other global indices ended higher. Investors continued to monitor data from US (corporate earnings). Investors are also watchful towards upcoming Fed and BoE policy meet to offer future guidance on rate decision. Amongst other indices Hang Seng (0.5%) gained the most. Sensex ended in red. It started the week on a warmer note and is trading lower today. On the other hand, Asian stocks are trading higher today.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
26-01-2023 27-01-2023 % change Dow Jones 33,949 33,978 0.1 S & P 500 4,060 4,071 0.2 FTSE 7,761 7,765 0.1 Nikkei 27,363 27,383 0.1 Hang Seng 22,567 22,689 0.5 Shanghai Comp 3,224 3,265 1.3 Sensex 60,205 59,331 (1.5) Nifty 17,892 17,604 (1.6) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except JPY and INR, other global currencies ended lower. Dollar index climbed by 0.1% as investors await global central bank (Fed, BoE) policy decision this week. Slowdown in the economy may lead to easing pace of monetary policy tightening from this month. INR appreciated by 0.1% as oil prices fell. However, it is trading lower today, while other Asian currencies are trading higher.
Fig 2 – Currencies
26-01-2023 27-01-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0892 1.0868 (0.2) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2408 1.2382 (0.2) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 130.22 129.88 0.3 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 81.59 81.52 0.1 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 6.7578 6.7845 (0.4) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global 10Y yields broadly closed higher, except Japan (flat). Marginal movements in yields is on account of expected easing of monetary policies by major central banks this week (Fed, BoE), in the wake of growing fears of recession. Weakness in US consumer spending signals the same. India’s 10Y yield closed 4bps higher, ahead of the Union Budget presentation this week. It is trading tad lower at 7.38% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
26-01-2023 27-01-2023 change in bps US 3.49 3.50 1 UK 3.32 3.32 1 Germany 2.22 2.24 2 Japan 0.49 0.49 0 China 2.91 2.93 1 India 7.35 7.39 4 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
25-01-2023 26-01-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.46 6.47 1 Tbill-182 days 6.84 6.83 (1) Tbill-364 days 6.90 6.88 (2) G-Sec 2Y 6.90 6.96 6 SONIA int rate benchmark 3.43 3.43 0 US SOFR 4.31 4.30 (1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 25-01-2023 27-01-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (0.3) 0.2 0.5 Reverse repo 0.5 0 (0.5) Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
24-01-2023 25-01-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 120.1 82.4 (37.7) Debt 134.1 113.8 (20.3) Equity (14.0) (31.4) (17.4) Mutual funds (Rs cr) (997.5) (1,843.0) (845.5) Debt (1,753.3) (188.5) 1,564.7 Equity 755.7 (1,654.5) (2,410.2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research│Note: Mutual funds data is of 4 Jan 2023 and 5 Jan 2023
Global oil prices fell by 0.9%, dragged by steady Russian oil supply. Gold prices too fell, as DXY gained ahead of US rate decision.
Fig 7 – Commodities
26-01-2023 27-01-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 87.5 86.7 (0.9) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,929.2 1,928.0 (0.1) Copper (US$/ MT) 9,306.5 9,242.2 (0.7) Zinc (US$/MT) 3,508.3 3,438.8 (2.0) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,639.0 2,627.0 (0.5) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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31 Jan 2023
IMF has raised the global growth forecast for CY23 to 2.9% from 2.7% estimated earlier. This is on account of strong demand in US and Europe, removal of lockdown in China and easing oil prices. Growth forecast for US, Europe and China was revised up. India’s growth forecast was retained. In fact, IMF projects UK to be the only major economy to witness a recession in CY23. Data from China reaffirmed this view, with both manufacturing and services activity rebounding strongly in Jan’23. Official manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1 from 47 in Dec’22. Non-manufacturing PMI jumped more sharply to 54.4 from 41.6 in Dec’22. In Japan, industrial production fell less than expected by -0.1% in Dec’22 (est. -1.2%), while retail sales surprised positively (+3% in Dec’22 versus est. +3%).
Global indices closed mixed. Investors remained cautious ahead of major central bank policy decisions (Fed: est. 25bps hike; ECB and BoE: est. 50bps hike). Apart from this, contraction in Germany’s Q4 GDP and drop in industrial production in South Korea also impacted sentiments. Hang Seng dropped the most, while FTSE and Sensex noted gains. Sensex is trading lower today in line with other Asian stocks, despite better PMI print from China.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
27-01-2023 30-01-2023 % change Dow Jones 33,978 33,717 (0.8) S & P 500 4,071 4,018 (1.3) FTSE 7,765 7,785 0.3 Nikkei 27,383 27,433 0.2 Hang Seng 22,689 22,070 (2.7) Shanghai Comp 3,265 3,269 0.1 Sensex 59,331 59,500 0.3 Nifty 17,604 17,649 0.3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except INR (flat) and CNY (higher), other global currencies depreciated against the dollar. DXY rose for the third straight session as investors await key central bank policies. EUR fell by 0.2% as Germany’s GDP declined in Q4CY22. GBP too declined by 0.2%. INR closed flat supported by lower oil prices. However, it is trading lower today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
27-01-2023 30-01-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0868 1.0851 (0.2) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2382 1.2352 (0.2) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 129.88 130.39 (0.4) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 81.52 81.50 0 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 6.7845 6.7523 0.5 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global 10Y yields closed mixed. Germany’s 10Y yield rose the most by 8bps ahead of ECB’s policy decision. Even US 10Y yield rose by 3bps. Market is pricing in a 25bps rate hike with cues about the future trajectory of Fed fund rate. Japan and China’s 10Y yield fell by 1bps, in absence of any fresh cues. India’s 10Y yield rose by 1bps (7.4%). It is trading lower at 7.37% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
27-01-2023 30-01-2023 change in bps US 3.50 3.54 3 UK 3.32 3.34 1 Germany 2.24 2.32 8 Japan 0.49 0.48 (1) China 2.93 2.92 (1) India 7.39 7.40 1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
26-01-2023 27-01-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.47 6.47 0 Tbill-182 days 6.83 6.83 0 Tbill-364 days 6.88 6.90 2 G-Sec 2Y 6.96 6.99 3 SONIA int rate benchmark 3.43 3.43 0 US SOFR 4.30 4.30 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 27-01-2023 30-01-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) 0.2 0 (0.2) Reverse repo 0.5 0.4 (0.1) Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
25-01-2023 27-01-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 82.4 (823.7) (906.1) Debt 113.8 (71.1) (185.0) Equity (31.4) (752.5) (721.1) Mutual funds (Rs cr) (997.5) (1,843.0) (845.5) Debt (1,753.3) (188.5) 1,564.7 Equity 755.7 (1,654.5) (2,410.2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research│Note: Mutual funds data is of 4 Jan 2023 and 5 Jan 2023
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Mutual funds data as of 24 Jan 2023 and 25 Jan 2023.
Fig 7 – Commodities
27-01-2023 30-01-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 86.7 84.9 (2.0) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,928.0 1,923.2 (0.3) Copper (US$/ MT) 9,242.2 9,188.4 (0.6) Zinc (US$/MT) 3,438.8 3,475.8 1.1 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,627.0 2,589.5 (1.4) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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01 Feb 2023
Latest macro data points from Europe indicates that while growth in Eurozone and France still remains steady, German economy is showing signs of stress. France’s Q4CY22 GDP surprised positively and rose by 0.1% (est.: 0%) owing to lower energy imports and sustained business investment. Consumption and exports acted as a drag. In Eurozone, Q4CY22 GDP was up by 0.1% versus estimated (-) 0.1% decline. On the other hand, Germany’s retail sales fell (-) 5.3% versus est.: +0.2%, due to elevated inflation levels and uncertain economic environment. On the domestic front while markets await Union Budget presentation, global investors will also track Fed’s policy decision later today.
Global indices ended mixed ahead of the key rate decisions and commentary on future guidance by Central Banks. Investors monitored surprise dip in German retail sales and fall in US consumer confidence. Hang Seng (1%) dropped the most followed by both Nikkei and Shanghai Comp. Sensex ended in green. Gains in auto, power and cap good stocks drove it higher. It is also trading higher today in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
30-01-2023 31-01-2023 % change Dow Jones 33,717 34,086 1.1 S & P 500 4,018 4,077 1.5 FTSE 7,785 7,772 (0.2) Nikkei 27,433 27,327 (0.4) Hang Seng 22,070 21,842 (1.0) Shanghai Comp 3,269 3,256 (0.4) Sensex 59,500 59,550 0.1 Nifty 17,649 17,662 0.1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies ended mixed. DXY declined by 0.2% amidst news of dip in consumer confidence and ahead of Jobs opening data as well as Fed's rate decision. Employment cost index, a gauge of labour cost rose less than anticipated in Q4CY22 (1% against 1.2% in Q3). INR ended weaker despite fall in oil prices. It is trading stronger today ahead of Budget announcement, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
30-01-2023 31-01-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0851 1.0863 0.1 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2352 1.2320 (0.3) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 130.39 130.09 0.2 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 81.50 81.92 (0.5) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 6.7523 6.7553 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global 10Y yields broadly closed lower, except in UK (flat) and Japan (higher). 10Y yield in US fell following disappointing consumer confidence print for Jan’23. Risks of growth slowdown may lead to Fed easing the pace of rate hike in its meeting today. India’s 10Y yield closed 5bps lower, awaiting Union Budget announcement. It is trading further lower at 7.33% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
30-01-2023 31-01-2023 change in bps US 3.54 3.51 (3) UK 3.34 3.33 0 Germany 2.32 2.29 (3) Japan 0.48 0.50 1 China 2.92 2.90 (2) India 7.40 7.34 (5) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
30-01-2023 31-01-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.47 6.47 0 Tbill-182 days 6.83 6.84 1 Tbill-364 days 6.90 6.89 (1) G-Sec 2Y 6.99 6.99 0 SONIA int rate benchmark 3.43 3.43 0 US SOFR 4.30 4.30 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 30-01-2023 31-01-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) 0 0 0 Reverse repo 0.4 0.3 (0.1) Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
27-01-2023 30-01-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (823.7) (645.1) 178.6 Debt (71.1) 52.1 123.3 Equity (752.5) (697.2) 55.3 Mutual funds (Rs cr) (997.5) (1,843.0) (845.5) Debt (1,753.3) (188.5) 1,564.7 Equity 755.7 (1,654.5) (2,410.2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research│Note: Mutual funds data is of 4 Jan 2023 and 5 Jan 2023
Global oil prices fell by another 0.5%, as OPEC panel is expected to keep output targets unchanged in today’s meeting. This along with build-up in US inventory impacted investor sentiments.
Fig 7 – Commodities
30-01-2023 31-01-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 84.9 84.5 (0.5) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,923.2 1,928.4 0.3 Copper (US$/ MT) 9,188.4 9,199.6 0.1 Zinc (US$/MT) 3,475.8 3,418.8 (1.6) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,589.5 2,644.0 2.1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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02 Feb 2023
In line with market expectations, US Fed has raised its policy rate by 25bps, acknowledging that inflation is cooling down. However it further added that, rate hikes will continue for some time in order to bring prices substantially down. US macro data shows that manufacturing activity weakened further in Jan’23 (ISM: 47.4 versus 48.4 in Dec’22), and private sector employment rose by 106k in Jan’23 versus est.: +190k and +253k in Dec’22. Markit PMI data shows that manufacturing activity in Eurozone, UK, Germany, and China remained in contraction in Jan’23, albeit the pace has slowed. In India, Union Budget announcements focused on balancing fiscal consolidation, nudging private investment and providing relief to consumers from inflationary pressures.
Global indices largely ended higher. Investors monitored Fed’s rate hike decision. S&P 500 rose by 1% led by strong gains in technology stocks ahead of the non-farm payrolls data due to release on Friday. Hang Seng also ended higher followed by gains in Shanghai Comp (0.9%). Sensex too ended in green after see-sawing post the budget announcements. IT and metal stocks gained the most. It is trading flat today while other Asian stocks are trading higher.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
31-01-2023 1-02-2023 % change Dow Jones 34,086 34,093 0 S & P 500 4,077 4,119 1.0 FTSE 7,772 7,761 (0.1) Nikkei 27,327 27,347 0.1 Hang Seng 21,842 22,072 1.1 Shanghai Comp 3,256 3,285 0.9 Sensex 59,550 59,708 0.3 Nifty 17,662 17,616 (0.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Barring INR (flat), other global currencies ended higher. DXY declined by 0.9% after Fed’s rate decision and the Fed Chair acknowledging the slowing down of inflation. EUR and GBP climbed higher by 1.2% and 0.5% respectively ahead of the rate decision by ECB and BoE. INR ended flat. It is trading stronger today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
31-01-2023 1-02-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0863 1.0990 1.2 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2320 1.2376 0.5 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 130.09 128.98 0.9 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 81.92 81.94 0 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 6.7553 6.7422 0.2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global 10Y yields closed mixed. Yields in US (-9bps), India (-7bps) and UK (- 2bps) fell the most. Slowdown in the pace of rate hike (25bps) pushed US treasury yields lower. Investors in UK are also expecting BoE to pause soon. In India, 10Y yield got support from less than estimated borrowing program announced in the Union Budget. It is trading further lower at 7.26% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
31-01-2023 1-02-2023 change in bps US 3.51 3.42 (9) UK 3.33 3.31 (2) Germany 2.29 2.28 0 Japan 0.50 0.49 0 China 2.90 2.91 1 India 7.34 7.28 (7) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
31-01-2023 1-02-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.47 6.53 6 Tbill-182 days 6.84 6.90 6 Tbill-364 days 6.89 6.93 4 G-Sec 2Y 6.99 6.92 (7) SONIA int rate benchmark 3.43 3.43 0 US SOFR 4.30 4.31 1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 31-01-2023 1-02-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) 0 (0.2) (0.2) Reverse repo 0.3 0.3 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
27-01-2023 31-01-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (823.7) (645.1) 178.6 Debt (71.1) 52.1 123.3 Equity (752.5) (697.2) 55.3 Mutual funds (Rs cr) (997.5) (1,843.0) (845.5) Debt (1,753.3) (188.5) 1,564.7 Equity 755.7 (1,654.5) (2,410.2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research│Note: Mutual funds data is of 4 Jan 2023 and 5 Jan 2023
Global oil prices fell by 2%, as US data showed considerable build up in stock piles, and OPEC countries decided to stick to their current output targets.
Fig 7 – Commodities
31-01-2023 1-02-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 84.5 82.8 (2.0) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,928.4 1,950.5 1.1 Copper (US$/ MT) 9,199.6 9,060.5 (1.5) Zinc (US$/MT) 3,418.8 3,375.3 (1.3) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,644.0 2,631.5 (0.5) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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03 Feb 2023
In line with market expectations, both BoE and ECB have raised their key policy rates by 50bps. Following this, BoE’s policy rate is at 14-year high of 4%. BoE’s future guidance was more dovish than expected as it hinted at smaller quantum of rate hikes in the coming meetings, as inflation is seen cooling down. The bank also expects economy to perform better than earlier anticipated (-0.3% in Q1CY23 versus -0.6% earlier). In CY24 the bank expects flat (0%) growth. ECB on the other hand has reaffirmed its stance to continue rate hikes in the coming months as well. In the US, labour market remains tight with initial jobless claims coming in lower (183k) than estimated (200k) for the week ending 28 Jan 2023 and versus 186k last week.
Barring Dow Jones and Hang Seng, other global indices ended higher. Investors monitored rate decision by ECB and BoE. These decisions came in post Fed’s mandate of hiking rate by another 25bps. S&P 500 gained the most followed by gains in FTSE (0.8%). Sensex also climbed higher driven by gains in IT and banking stocks. It is trading higher today while other Asian stocks are trading mixed.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
1-02-2023 2-02-2023 % change Dow Jones 34,093 34,054 (0.1) S & P 500 4,119 4,180 1.5 FTSE 7,761 7,820 0.8 Nikkei 27,347 27,402 0.2 Hang Seng 22,072 21,958 (0.5) Shanghai Comp 3,285 3,286 0 Sensex 59,708 59,932 0.4 Nifty 17,616 17,610 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except JPY and CNY (higher), other global currencies ended lower. DXY rose by 0.5% ahead of the release of US non-farm payrolls data. Both ECB and BoE raised rates, with BoE signalling possible turning of the inflation wave, in its dovish outlook. GBP slipped by 1.2% followed by EUR by 0.7%. INR ended stronger as oil prices edged lower. However, it is trading weaker today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
1-02-2023 2-02-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0990 1.0910 (0.7) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2376 1.2225 (1.2) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 128.98 128.68 0.2 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 81.94 82.18 (0.3) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 6.7422 6.7311 0.2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Barring Japan and India (higher), other global 10Y yields ended lower. Yields in UK (-30bps) and Germany (-20bps) fell the most. More than expected dovish statement by BoE and ECB’s indication that inflation might have peaked in Europe, signalled that central banks may begin slowing down the pace of rate hikes soon. In India, 10Y yield rose by 2bps ahead of the weekly RBI auction today. However, it is trading a tad lower at 7.29% today
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
1-02-2023 2-02-2023 change in bps US 3.42 3.39 (2) UK 3.31 3.01 (30) Germany 2.28 2.08 (20) Japan 0.49 0.50 1 China 2.91 2.90 (2) India 7.28 7.30 2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
1-02-2023 2-02-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.53 6.54 1 Tbill-182 days 6.90 6.90 0 Tbill-364 days 6.93 6.91 (2) G-Sec 2Y 6.92 6.92 1 SONIA int rate benchmark 3.43 3.43 0 US SOFR 4.31 4.31 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 31-01-2023 1-02-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) 0 (0.5) (0.5) Reverse repo 0.3 0.3 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
31-01-2023 1-02-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (365.8) 660.8 1,026.6 Debt 204.1 350.2 146.1 Equity (569.9) 310.6 880.5 Mutual funds (Rs cr) (997.5) (2,547.0) (1,549.5) Debt (1,753.3) 199.1 1,952.4 Equity 755.7 (2,746.1) (3,501.9) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research│Note: Mutual funds data is of 4 Jan 2023 and 5 Jan 2023
Global oil prices fell by 0.8%, as investors fear weak global demand, as China is also showing mixed signs of recovery.
Fig 7 – Commodities
1-02-2023 2-02-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 82.8 82.2 (0.8) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,950.5 1,912.7 (1.9) Copper (US$/ MT) 9,060.5 9,028.3 (0.4) Zinc (US$/MT) 3,375.3 3,411.5 1.1 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,631.5 2,617.0 (0.6) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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