Economic Weekly Wrap
06 February 2023 - 10 February 2023
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06 Feb 2023
Global markets reacted to a stronger than expected US jobs report. US non-farm payrolls increased by 517,000 in Jan’23, against est. 185,000 and 260,000 in Dec’22. This has fuelled expectations that the Fed may raise rates to above 5% and will likely keep it there for some time, effectively ruling out rate cuts priced in by the markets in the latter part of 2023. DXY and US 10Y bond yield surged in response. Another key macro data, US ISM services PMI rose sharply to 55.2 in Jan’23 (est. 50.4) from 49.2 in Dec’22. Services activity in Japan, China and Eurozone also signalled improvement. On the other hand, India’s services PMI eased to 57.2 in Jan’23 from 58.5 in Dec’22, but remained in the expansion territory.
Global indices closed mixed. Investors remained cautious monitoring US payroll data which showed that labour market conditions remained considerably tighter and wage growth has been stable. Apart from this, better services PMI reading in US, Germany and China also impacted investor sentiments. Hang Seng and S&P 500 dropped the most, while FTSE and Nikkei inched up. Sensex rose by 1.5% driven by consumer durables and banking stocks. It is trading weaker today, in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
02-02-2023 03-02-2023 % change Dow Jones 34,054 33,926 (0.4) S & P 500 4,180 4,136 (1.0) FTSE 7,820 7,902 1.0 Nikkei 27,402 27,509 0.4 Hang Seng 21,958 21,660 (1.4) Shanghai Comp 3,286 3,263 (0.7) Sensex 59,932 60,842 1.5 Nifty 17,610 17,854 1.4 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except INR, other global currencies ended weaker against the dollar. DXY rose by 1.1% to a ~3-week high as a stronger than expected US jobs report supported views of higher Fed rates. JPY and GBP depreciated the most. INR appreciated by 0.4% supported by lower oil prices and gains in domestic equities. However, it is trading weaker today in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
02-02-2023 03-02-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0910 1.0795 (1.1) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2225 1.2056 (1.4) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 128.68 131.19 (1.9) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.18 81.84 0.4 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 6.7311 6.7980 (1.0) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global 10Y yields closed mixed. US 10Y yield rose the most by 13bps as labour market conditions remained tight. Even Germany’s 10Y yield rose by 11bps as ECB hinted at further rate hikes. Japan and China’s 10Y yield closed stable, in absence of any fresh cues. India’s 10Y yield fell by 2bps (7.28%) tracking fall in overnight indexed swap rates. It is trading higher at 7.32% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
02-02-2023 03-02-2023 change in bps US 3.39 3.52 13 UK 3.01 3.06 5 Germany 2.08 2.19 11 Japan 0.50 0.50 0 China 2.90 2.90 0 India 7.30 7.28 (2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
02-02-2023 03-02-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.54 6.55 1 Tbill-182 days 6.90 6.89 (1) Tbill-364 days 6.91 6.92 1 G-Sec 2Y 6.92 6.88 (4) SONIA int rate benchmark 3.43 3.93 50 US SOFR 4.31 4.56 25 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 02-02-2023 03-02-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (0.5) (0.4) 0.1) Reverse repo 0.4 0.4 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
01-02-2023 02-02-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 660.8 (325.8) (986.6) Debt 350.2 118.1 (232.0) Equity 310.6 (443.9) (754.5) Mutual funds (Rs cr) (2,547.0) 2,446.6 4,993.6 Debt 199.1 (2,166.5) (2,365.6) Equity (2,746.1) 4,613.1 7,359.2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Mutual funds data as of 25 Jan 2023 and 27 Jan 2023
Global oil prices fell by 2.7%, amidst expectation of more rate hikes by Fed after US employment report.
Fig 7 – Commodities
02-02-2023 03-02-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 82.2 79.9 (2.7) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,912.7 1,865.0 (2.5) Copper (US$/ MT) 9,028.3 8,951.3 (0.9) Zinc (US$/MT) 3,411.5 3,269.5 (4.2) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,617.0 2,569.5 (1.8) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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07 Feb 2023
Following the stellar US jobs report, market expectations of Fed rate path have seen a marked shift. Investors now expect a peak terminal rate above 5%, with two 25bps rate hikes expected in the next two meetings. In response, equity markets worldwide saw a sharp selloff and currencies depreciated. Against this backdrop, Fed Chair’s speech due later in the day, is keenly awaited. Geo-political tensions between US and China also kept investors jittery. Reserve Bank of Australia increased policy rates by another 25bps as inflation continues to remain very high and also hinted at more rate hikes. In UK, BoE’s Catherine Mann also advocated for more rate hikes.
Except Nikkei (higher), global indices closed lower. Investors remained cautious ahead of Powell’s speech to get cues on direction of future Fed fund rate. Atlanta Fed President also spoke of possibility to raise rates more than previously anticipated, to rein in inflation. Hang Seng dropped the most, followed by Shanghai Comp and FTSE. Sensex fell by 0.6% dragged down by metal and power stocks. It is trading weaker today, while other Asian stocks are trading higher.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
03-02-2023 06-02-2023 % change Dow Jones 33,926 33,891 (0.1) S & P 500 4,136 4,111 (0.6) FTSE 7,902 7,837 (0.8) Nikkei 27,509 27,694 0.7 Hang Seng 21,660 21,222 (2.0) Shanghai Comp 3,263 3,239 (0.8) Sensex 60,842 60,507 (0.6) Nifty 17,854 17,765 (0.5) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except CNY (flat), other global currencies ended weaker against the dollar. DXY consolidated its gains, rising by another 0.6% amidst expectations of a higher terminal Fed rate. EUR depreciated by 0.6% even as Germany’s industrial orders surprised positively. JPY and INR depreciated the most by 1.1% each. INR is trading a tad stronger today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
03-02-2023 06-02-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0795 1.0726 (0.6) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2056 1.2019 (0.3) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 131.19 132.66 (1.1) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 81.84 82.74 (1.1) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 6.7980 6.7964 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global 10Y yields closed higher. UK’s 10Y yield rose the most by 19bps following comments from BoE’s official about more rate increases to control inflation. Even US 10Y yield firmed up by 12bps, as tighter labour market data raised possibility of a higher terminal fund rate. India’s 10Y yield rose by 4bps (7.32%) ahead of RBI policy. It is trading at 7.31% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
03-02-2023 06-02-2023 change in bps US 3.52 3.64 12 UK 3.06 3.24 19 Germany 2.19 2.30 10 Japan 0.50 0.51 1 China 2.90 2.91 1 India 7.28 7.32 4 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
03-02-2023 06-02-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.55 6.55 0 Tbill-182 days 6.89 6.83 (6) Tbill-364 days 6.92 6.91 (1) G-Sec 2Y 6.88 6.93 6 SONIA int rate benchmark 3.93 3.93 0 US SOFR 4.56 4.55 (1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 03-02-2023 06-02-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (0.4) (0.4) 0 Reverse repo 0.4 0.4 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
02-02-2023 03-02-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (325.8) 16.1 341.9 Debt 118.1 46.5 (71.6) Equity (443.9) (30.4) 413.5 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 2,446.6 1,729.9 (716.7) Debt (2,166.5) (2,908.2) (741.7) Equity 4,613.1 4,638.1 25.0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Mutual funds data as of 25 Jan 2023 and 27 Jan 2023
International oil prices edged up by 1.3% after IEA stated that oil demand is likely to rise to record high in 2023 amidst increased demand from China.
Fig 7 – Commodities
03-02-2023 06-02-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 79.9 81.0 1.3 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,865.0 1,867.5 0.1 Copper (US$/ MT) 8,951.3 8,838.0 (1.3) Zinc (US$/MT) 3,269.5 3,164.0 (3.2) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,569.5 2,533.5 (1.4) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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08 Feb 2023
Fed Chair in his latest speech stressed that the process of “disinflation” has begun, and he expects significant moderation in inflation this year. However, services inflation remains stubbornly high. He reiterated the need for further rate hikes and said that the Fed action will be contingent on incoming data. Separately, real wage growth in Japan edged up for the first time in 9-months by 0.1% in Dec’22. However, household spending declined more than expected by 1.3% in Dec’22 (est. -0.2%), signalling weak domestic demand. In India, markets await the RBI policy decision today. We expect a 25bps rate hike.
Except Nikkei (flat) and Indian markets (lower), global indices closed higher. Risk-on sentiments increased as Fed Chair’s speech highlighted that disinflation has begun. S&P 500 and Dow rose the most by 1.3% and 0.8% respectively. Asian shares got support from technology stocks and news reports of falling odds of US recession. Sensex fell by 0.4% dragged down by metal and auto stocks. However, it is trading higher today, while Asian stocks are trading mixed.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
06-02-2023 07-02-2023 % change Dow Jones 33,891 34,157 0.8 S & P 500 4,111 4,164 1.3 FTSE 7,837 7,865 0.4 Nikkei 27,694 27,685 0 Hang Seng 21,222 21,299 0.4 Shanghai Comp 3,239 3,248 0.3 Sensex 60,507 60,286 (0.4) Nifty 17,765 17,722 (0.2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Barring EUR and INR (flat), other global currencies gained as DXY retreated. After gaining for 3-straight sessions, DXY fell by 0.2% following comments from Fed Chair. JPY appreciated the most by 1.2%. EUR ended flat as Germany’s industrial production fell more than expected in Dec’22. INR is trading stronger today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
06-02-2023 07-02-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0726 1.0726 0 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2019 1.2048 0.2 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 132.66 131.07 1.2 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.74 82.70 0 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 6.7964 6.7846 0.2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global 10Y yields closed mixed. Fed Chair’s speech despite highlighting disinflation, remained cautious on tighter labour market conditions. Even Minneapolis Fed President spoke of the possibility to raise interest rate to 5.4%. These mixed signals impacted bond market sentiments. UK 10Y yield rose the most (+7bps), followed by Germany (+5bps) and US (+3bps). India’s 10Y yield fell by 1bps (7.31%), ahead of RBI policy, where a 25bps rate hike is expected.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
06-02-2023 07-02-2023 change in bps US 3.64 3.67 3 UK 3.24 3.32 7 Germany 2.30 2.35 5 Japan 0.51 0.50 0 China 2.91 2.90 (1) India 7.32 7.31 (1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
06-02-2023 07-02-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.55 6.56 1 Tbill-182 days 6.83 6.90 7 Tbill-364 days 6.91 6.92 1 G-Sec 2Y 6.93 6.94 1 SONIA int rate benchmark 3.93 3.93 0 US SOFR 4.55 4.55 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 06-02-2023 07-02-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (0.4) (0.3) (0.1) Reverse repo 0.4 0.4 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
03-02-2023 06-02-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 16.1 (174.3) (190.4) Debt 46.5 (48.3) (94.8) Equity (30.4) (126.0) (95.6) Mutual funds (Rs cr) 1,246.9 2,946.4 1,699.5 Debt (2,637.2) 1,748.4 4,385.5 Equity 3,884.0 1,198.0 (2,686.0) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Mutual funds data as of 25 Jan 2023 and 27 Jan 2023
Global oil price rose further by 3.3%, after US crude stocks fell unexpectedly. Supply concerns on account of earthquake in Turkey and softer dollar also supported prices.
Fig 7 – Commodities
06-02-2023 07-02-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 81.0 83.7 3.3 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,867.5 1,873.1 0.3 Copper (US$/ MT) 8,838.0 8,893.0 0.6 Zinc (US$/MT) 3,164.0 3,169.8 0.2 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,533.5 2,524.5 (0.4) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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09 Feb 2023
Following comments from the Fed Chair, several Fed officials expressed the need for higher rates. While New York Fed President suggested that a range of 5%- 5.25%, Minneapolis Fed President pegged the terminal Fed fund rate at above 5.4%. Fed Governors Lisa Cook and Christopher Waller also noted that more rate hikes will be needed to keep inflation in check. Similar comments were also echoed by two key ECB members, signalling more rate hikes may be forthcoming. In India, RBI delivered a 25bps rate hike as expected, but kept the stance unchanged, keeping room open for more rate hike based on the evolving inflation picture.
Except UK and India (higher), stock indices elsewhere closed lower. Markets are looking for direction on trajectory of Fed fund rate. Another Fed official (New York Fed President) spoke of a policy rate between 5-5.25% and his comments remained broadly hawkish. S&P 500 fell the most, followed by Dow. FTSE, on the other hand, rose by 0.3% as fears of recession have eased in UK. Sensex rose by 0.6%, supported by gains in technology and metal stocks. However, it is trading lower today, while Asian stocks are trading mixed.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
07-02-2023 08-02-2023 % change Dow Jones 34,157 33,949 (0.6) S & P 500 4,164 4,118 (1.1) FTSE 7,865 7,885 0.3 Nikkei 27,685 27,606 (0.3) Hang Seng 21,299 21,284 (0.1) Shanghai Comp 3,248 3,232 (0.5) Sensex 60,286 60,664 0.6 Nifty 17,722 17,872 0.8 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies ended mixed against the dollar. DXY ended flat as investors assessed Fed’s future rate path after hawkish comments from several Fed officials. EUR depreciated by 0.1% even as two key ECB members stressed on the need for more rate hikes. On the other hand, INR appreciated by 0.3% supported by gains in domestic equities. However, it is trading weaker today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
07-02-2023 08-02-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0726 1.0712 (0.1) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2048 1.2072 0.2 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 131.07 131.40 (0.3) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.70 82.49 0.3 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 6.7846 6.7921 (0.1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global 10Y yields closed mixed. Varied signals on future trajectory of Fed fund rate kept investors cautious. US 10Y yield fell the most by 6bps. UK, Japan and China’s 10Y yield remained stable in absence of any fresh cues. India’s 10Y yield rose by 3bps (7.34%), as inflation forecast for FY24 remained above 4% for all quarters. It is trading at 7.35% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
07-02-2023 08-02-2023 change in bps US 3.67 3.61 (6) UK 3.32 3.31 0 Germany 2.35 2.36 1 Japan 0.50 0.50 0 China 2.90 2.90 0 India 7.31 7.34 3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
07-02-2023 08-02-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.56 6.65 9 Tbill-182 days 6.90 6.98 8 Tbill-364 days 6.92 7.03 11 G-Sec 2Y 6.94 7.02 8 SONIA int rate benchmark 3.93 3.93 0 US SOFR 4.55 4.55 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 07-02-2023 08-02-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (0.4) 0.1 0.5 Reverse repo 0.4 0.4 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
06-02-2023 07-02-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (174.3) (366.5) (192.2) Debt (48.3) (99.6) (51.3) Equity (126.0) (266.9) (140.9) Mutual funds (Rs cr) 2,946.4 857.4 (2,089.0) Debt 1,748.4 (343.1) (2,091.5) Equity 1,198.0 1,200.5 2.5 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Mutual funds data as of 25 Jan 2023 and 27 Jan 2023
Global oil prices rose by 1.7% amidst supply disruptions due to earthquake in Turkey. Hopes of demand revival from China also buoyed prices.
Fig 7 – Commodities
07-02-2023 08-02-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 83.7 85.1 1.7 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,873.1 1,875.5 0.1 Copper (US$/ MT) 8,893.0 8,863.8 (0.3) Zinc (US$/MT) 3,169.8 3,167.0 (0.1) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,524.5 2,481.0 (1.7) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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10 Feb 2023
Global markets reacted to increase in US initial jobless claims for the week ending 4 Feb 2023 by 13k to 196k, from 183k in the previous week. While this could signal a slowdown in the economy, investors still await data on US inflation (due next week), to gauge Fed’s future trajectory. So far, Fed officials have maintained their stance that rates will be kept elevated to bring inflation substantially down. Separately, in China, CPI inched up (2.1% in Jan’23 versus 1.8% in Dec’22), owing to seasonal factors (Lunar New Year pushed prices up for sir tickets, and recreational activities). However PPI continues to decline (-0.8% versus -0.7%), indicating that domestic demand is yet to gain momentum.
Barring markets in US and Japan (lower), other global indices ended higher. S&P 500 fell the most followed by Dow Jones. Investor sentiments were impacted by layoff report from some more tech giants and rise in initial jobless claims. Markets in Europe were lifted by positive earnings reports. Sensex also climbed higher driven by gains in tech and capital goods stocks. However, it is trading lower today while other Asian stocks are trading mixed.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
8-02-2023 9-02-2023 % change Dow Jones 33,949 33,700 (0.7) S & P 500 4,118 4,082 (0.9) FTSE 7,885 7,911 0.3 Nikkei 27,606 27,584 (0.1) Hang Seng 21,284 21,624 1.6 Shanghai Comp 3,232 3,270 1.2 Sensex 60,664 60,806 0.2 Nifty 17,872 17,893 0.1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Barring INR and JPY, other global currencies are trading higher. DXY declined by 0.2% ahead of the inflation data due next week and concerns around growth slowdown. US jobless claims rose and added to the concerns. JPY weakened amidst reports of Japanese government’s plans of announcing new BoJ governor nominee. INR ended flat. It is trading weaker today while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
8-02-2023 9-02-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0712 1.0740 0.3 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2072 1.2121 0.4 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 131.40 131.59 (0.1) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.49 82.52 0 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 6.7921 6.7864 0.1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields ended mixed. Uncertainty over the trajectory of Fed rate hike path kept the investors on the edge. Inverted yield curve steepened and added to the concerns. US 10Y yields climbed higher by 5bps. On the other hand, Germany's 10Y yield slipped by 6bps after inflation data came in cooler than anticipated (9.2% against est.:10%). India's 10Y yield ended flat and is trading a tad higher at 7.35% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
8-02-2023 9-02-2023 change in bps US 3.61 3.66 5 UK 3.31 3.29 (2) Germany 2.36 2.30 (6) Japan 0.50 0.50 0 China 2.90 2.90 0 India 7.34 7.34 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
8-02-2023 9-02-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.65 6.66 1 Tbill-182 days 6.98 6.99 1 Tbill-364 days 7.03 7.03 0 G-Sec 2Y 7.02 7.06 4 SONIA int rate benchmark 3.93 3.93 0 US SOFR 4.55 4.55 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 8-02-2023 9-02-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) 0.1 0.1 0 Reverse repo 0.4 0.3 (0.1) Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
7-08-2023 8-02-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (366.5) (206.1) 160.4 Debt (99.6) (150.9) (51.2) Equity (266.9) (55.2) 211.7 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 2,946.4 857.4 (2,089.0) Debt 1,748.4 (343.1) (2,091.5) Equity 1,198.0 1,200.5 2.5 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Mutual funds data as of 25 Jan 2023 and 27 Jan 2023
Global oil prices fell by 0.7%, as US inventories swell and there emerge risks of global slowdown (US jobless claims, layoffs by tech giants).
Fig 7 – Commodities
8-02-2023 9-02-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 85.1 84.5 (0.7) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,875.5 1,861.8 (0.7) Copper (US$/ MT) 8,863.8 8,952.2 1.0 Zinc (US$/MT) 3,167.0 3,152.0 (0.5) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,481.0 2,499.0 0.7 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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