Economic Weekly Wrap
24 July 2023 - 28 July 2023
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24 July 2023
Market focus remains on major central bank meetings as the Fed, Bank of Japan (BoJ) and European Central Bank (ECB) meet later in the week. While both Fed and ECB are expected to hike rates by 25bps, reports suggest that BoJ is likely to maintain its ultra-dovish policy stance, despite accelerating inflation. Economic outcomes remained divergent across the globe. China rolled out further stimulus measures to boost growth by offering incentives on purchase of electronics and automobiles. Steps were also announced to attract private investment in sectors such as transport, renewable energy etc. In UK, retail sales rose by 0.7% (MoM) in Jun’23 (est. 0.2%), even as consumer confidence fell sharply to -30 in Jul’23. In India, monsoon has picked up pace with rainfall now at 5% above LPA (as of 23 Jul 2023) and area under kharif sowing higher by 1.2% over the last year.
Global indices ended mixed. Markets in US ended flat as investors await Fed policy and upcoming corporate earnings result. FTSE rose by 0.2% supported by a higher than expected increase is UK’s retail sales. Barring Hang Seng, stocks in Asia were mostly lower. Sensex dipped by 1.3% from its record-high. Tech stocks fell the most amidst disappointing results from IT firms. It is trading further lower today, in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
20-07-2023 21-07-2023 % change Dow Jones 35,225 35,228 0 S & P 500 4,535 4,536 0 FTSE 7,646 7,664 0.2 Nikkei 32,491 32,304 (0.6) Hang Seng 18,928 19,075 0.8 Shanghai Comp 3,170 3,168 (0.1) Sensex 67,572 66,684 (1.3) Nifty 19,979 19,745 (1.2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies ended broadly lower. DXY rose by 0.2% ahead of Fed meet. JPY depreciated by 1.2% as BoJ is widely expected to maintain its policy stance in the upcoming meet. INR closed flat supported by FPI inflows, despite higher oil prices. It is trading stronger today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
20-07-2023 21-07-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1130 1.1124 (0.1) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2868 1.2854 (0.1) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 140.07 141.73 (1.2) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 81.99 81.96 0 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1796 7.1876 (0.1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except UK and India (flat), other major global yields ended lower. 10Y yields in US, Germany and Japan fell by 2bps each, awaiting policy decisions of respective central banks. Both Fed and ECB are expected to raise policy rates by 25bps, while BoJ is expected to keep policy unchanged. India’s 10Y closed flat, even as oil prices edged up. It is trading flat even today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
20-07-2023 21-07-2023 change in bps US 3.85 3.83 (2) UK 4.28 4.28 0 Germany 2.49 2.47 (2) Japan 0.47 0.45 (2) China 2.62 2.62 (1) India 7.08 7.08 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
20-07-2023 21-07-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.69 6.71 2 Tbill-182 days 6.84 6.83 (1) Tbill-364 days 6.87 6.86 (1) G-Sec 2Y 6.98 7.00 2 India OIS-2M 6.61 6.61 0 India OIS-9M 6.76 6.78 2 SONIA int rate benchmark 4.93 4.93 0 US SOFR 5.05 5.06 1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 20-07-2023 21-07-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (1.1) (1.1) 0 Reverse repo 0.6 0.6 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
19-07-2023 20-07-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 245.8 694.2 448.4 Debt (21.4) 128.8 150.2 Equity 267.2 565.4 298.2 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 431.5 497.9 66.3 Debt (326.1) 434.8 760.8 Equity 757.6 63.1 (694.5) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Mutual funds data as of 4 Jul and 5 Jul 2023
Crude prices rose further amidst expectations of lower supply.
Fig 7 – Commodities
20-07-2023 21-07-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 79.6 81.1 1.8 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,969.5 1,961.9 (0.4) Copper (US$/ MT) 8,460.8 8,422.5 (0.5) Zinc (US$/MT) 2,369.8 2,356.0 (0.6) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,201.0 2,204.5 0.2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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25 July 2023
Ahead of key central bank meetings, flash PMIs of major economies showed signs of increased stress. While, services activity decelerated across the board, manufacturing PMI too deteriorated further. In UK and Eurozone, manufacturing activity fell deeper into the contractionary zone with PMIs at 38-month low. In US manufacturing PMI remained below 50, but improved to 49 from 46.3 in Jun’23. Government in China signalled further support for the economy through measures aimed at boosting domestic demand, support for the property sector as well as management of government debt. GDP growth in South Korea beat estimates to rise by 0.6% in Q2CY23 (est. 0.5%), versus 0.3% in Q1.
Global stocks ended mixed. Markets in US and UK ended higher. Investors await policy decisions of major central banks for further policy guidance. While most Asian stocks ended lower, Nikkei bucked the trend and rose by 1.2% led by gains in technology and iron and steel stocks. Sensex declined by 0.4% as metal and oil and gas stocks dipped. However, it is trading higher today, in line with other Asian stocks as hopes of more stimulus from China lifted sentiments.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
21-07-2023 24-07-2023 % change Dow Jones 35,228 35,411 0.5 S & P 500 4,536 4,555 0.4 FTSE 7,664 7,679 0.2 Nikkei 32,304 32,701 1.2 Hang Seng 19,075 18,668 (2.1) Shanghai Comp 3,168 3,164 (0.1) Sensex 66,684 66,385 (0.4) Nifty 19,745 19,672 (0.4) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies ended mixed. DXY rose by 0.3% awaiting guidance on future rate trajectory of the Fed. EUR depreciated the most by 0.5% as Eurozone’s flash composite PMI fell to an 8-month low in Jul’23. INR appreciated by 0.2% to a ~3-month high, supported by FPI inflows. It is trading stronger today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
21-07-2023 24-07-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1124 1.1064 (0.5) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2854 1.2829 (0.2) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 141.73 141.48 0.2 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 81.96 81.83 0.2 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1876 7.1874 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields closed mixed. US 10Y yield rose by 2bps as investors await the Fed policy decision. 10Y yield in Germany fell sharply by 7bps as Germany’s flash composite PMI slipped into the contractionary zone at 48.3 in Jul’23 (8- month low). Even in UK, 10Y yield fell by 2bps as economic momentum lost pace. India’s 10Y fell by 1bps, but is trading higher at 7.09% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
21-07-2023 24-07-2023 change in bps US 3.85 3.87 2 UK 4.28 4.26 (2) Germany 2.49 2.43 (7) Japan 0.47 0.46 0 China 2.62 2.63 0 India 7.08 7.07 (1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
21-07-2023 24-07-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.69 6.70 1 Tbill-182 days 6.84 6.84 0 Tbill-364 days 6.87 6.86 (1) G-Sec 2Y 6.98 6.99 1 India OIS-2M 6.61 6.60 (1) India OIS-9M 6.76 6.77 0 SONIA int rate benchmark 4.93 4.93 0 US SOFR 5.06 5.05 (1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 21-07-2023 24-07-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (1.1) (1.1) 0 Reverse repo 0.6 0.6 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
20-07-2023 21-07-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 694.2 (143.8) (838.0) Debt 128.8 27.5 (101.3) Equity 565.4 (171.3) (736.7) Mutual funds (Rs cr) 431.5 497.9 66.3 Debt (326.1) 434.8 760.8 Equity 757.6 63.1 (694.5) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Mutual funds data as of 4 Jul and 5 Jul 2023
Oil prices rose as stimulus measures in China are expected to boost demand.
Fig 7 – Commodities
21-07-2023 24-07-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 81.1 82.7 2.1 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,961.9 1,954.7 (0.4) Copper (US$/ MT) 8,422.5 8,487.8 0.8 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,356.0 2,405.0 2.1 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,204.5 2,209.0 0.2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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26 July 2023
IMF has upgraded the global growth forecast to 3% in CY23 from 2.8% estimated earlier amidst a slowdown in inflation, resolution of US debt ceiling and reduced stress in the banking sector. Within advanced economies (AEs), growth projections for UK was revised up to 0.4% (+0.7pp) and US to 1.8% (+0.2pp). For India, growth forecast for FY24 was revised to 6.1% from 5.9% estimated earlier. Global inflation is expected to moderate to 6.8% in CY23 from 8.7% in CY22. Core inflation, however, is estimated to decline more gradually. Separately in US, the Conference Board consumer confidence index rose to a 2-year high at 117 in Jul’23 (est. 111.8) from 110.1 in Jun’23 amidst slowing inflation and tight labour market. In stark contrast, Ifo’s business climate index in Germany slipped to 87.3 (est. 88) from 88.6 in Jun’23. All eyes remain on the Fed. While a 25bps rate hike is expected, investors keenly await guidance on future rate path.
Barring Nikkei and Sensex, other global indices ended higher. Stocks in Hong Kong and China rose sharply, following new stimulus measures by China. Technology stocks advanced the most. In US, more than expected increase in US consumer confidence index buoyed market sentiments. Sensex ended flat. However, it is trading higher today, while other Asian stocks are trading mixed.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
24-07-2023 25-07-2023 % change Dow Jones 35,411 35,438 0.1 S & P 500 4,555 4,567 0.3 FTSE 7,679 7,692 0.2 Nikkei 32,701 32,683 (0.1) Hang Seng 18,668 19,434 4.1 Shanghai Comp 3,164 3,232 2.1 Sensex 66,385 66,356 0 Nifty 19,672 19,681 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies ended mixed. DXY rose by 0.3% awaiting guidance on future rate trajectory of the Fed. EUR depreciated the most by 0.5% as Eurozone’s flash composite PMI fell to an 8-month low in Jul’23. INR appreciated by 0.2% to a ~3-month high, supported by FPI inflows. It is trading stronger today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
24-07-2023 25-07-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1064 1.1055 (0.1) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2829 1.2902 0.6 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 141.48 140.90 0.4 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 81.83 81.87 (0.1) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1874 7.1363 0.7 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except Germany and Japan (flat), other global yields edged up. Investors await key central bank policy decisions and future rate guidance. 10Y yield in China rose the most by 5bps supported by announcement of more stimulus measures by the government. India’s 10Y yield rose by 3bps to 7.10% amidst concerns over the inflation trajectory. It is trading flat today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
24-07-2023 25-07-2023 change in bps US 3.87 3.88 1 UK 4.26 4.27 1 Germany 2.43 2.43 0 Japan 0.46 0.47 0 China 2.63 2.67 5 India 7.07 7.10 3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
24-07-2023 25-07-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.70 6.70 0 Tbill-182 days 6.84 6.80 (4) Tbill-364 days 6.86 6.86 0 G-Sec 2Y 6.99 7.03 3 India OIS-2M 6.60 6.61 1 India OIS-9M 6.77 6.80 3 SONIA int rate benchmark 4.93 4.93 0 US SOFR 5.05 5.05 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 24-07-2023 25-07-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (1.1) (1.4) (0.3) Reverse repo 0.6 0.6 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
21-07-2023 24-07-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (143.8) 48.1 191.9 Debt 27.5 20.0 (7.5) Equity (171.3) 28.1 199.4 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 431.5 497.9 66.3 Debt (326.1) 434.8 760.8 Equity 757.6 63.1 (694.5) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Mutual funds data as of 4 Jul and 5 Jul 2023
Oil prices rose amidst expectations of a supply crunch and improved demand.
Fig 7 – Commodities
24-07-2023 25-07-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 82.7 83.6 1.1 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,954.7 1,965.0 0.5 Copper (US$/ MT) 8,487.8 8,641.3 1.8 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,405.0 2,479.5 3.1 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,209.0 2,240.0 1.4 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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27 July 2023
In line with expectations, Fed raised its policy rates by 25bps to 5.25%-5.50%-a 22 year high. Fed Chair left room open for further rate hikes and reiterated that the decision will be contingent on incoming data. However, rate cuts in CY23 were ruled out. High inflation, particularly on the services side, as well as tight labour market remain key risks for the Fed. Hopes of a ‘soft landing’ remain intact, with the economy showing strength. Separately, US new home sales declined for the first time in 3-months by 2.5% to 697,000 (est. 725,000) from 715,000 in May’23. Industrial profits in China declined at a slower pace of 16.8% in Jan-Jun’23, compared with 18.8% in Jan-May’23. Industrial profits have continued to decline in double-digits amidst a sharp moderation in domestic demand.
Global markets ended mixed. Stocks in US traded in narrow range tracking Fed’s policy decision and mixed earnings report from major companies. FTSE fell by 0.2% led by losses in mining stocks. Stocks in China and Hong Kong fell by 0.3% and 0.4% respectively. Sensex rose by 0.5% supported by gains in capital goods and real estate stocks. It is trading further higher today, in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
25-07-2023 26-07-2023 % change Dow Jones 35,438 35,520 0.2 S & P 500 4,567 4,567 0 FTSE 7,692 7,677 (0.2) Nikkei 32,683 32,668 0 Hang Seng 19,434 19,365 (0.4) Shanghai Comp 3,232 3,223 (0.3) Sensex 66,356 66,707 0.5 Nifty 19,681 19,778 0.5 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except INR and CNY (lower), other global currencies advanced against the dollar. DXY fell by 0.5% as investors expect a pause in Fed’s rate hike cycle. JPY strengthened by 0.5% ahead of BoJ’s policy meet. INR depreciated by 0.1%. However, it is trading stronger today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
25-07-2023 26-07-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1055 1.1086 0.3 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2902 1.2941 0.3 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 140.90 140.24 0.5 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 81.87 82.00 (0.1) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1363 7.1431 (0.1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except UK and Germany (higher), other global yields dipped. US 10Y yield fell by 2bps as traders weighed comments from Fed Chair and assessed the future rate trajectory. Germany’s 10Y yield rose by 6bps ahead of ECB’s policy decision. India’s 10Y yield fell by 1bps supported by a drop in oil prices. It is trading further lower at 7.09% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
25-07-2023 26-07-2023 change in bps US 3.88 3.87 (2) UK 4.27 4.28 1 Germany 2.43 2.49 6 Japan 0.47 0.46 (1) China 2.67 2.65 (3) India 7.10 7.10 (1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
25-07-2023 26-07-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.70 6.71 1 Tbill-182 days 6.80 6.86 6 Tbill-364 days 6.86 6.88 2 G-Sec 2Y 7.03 7.00 (3) India OIS-2M 6.61 6.61 0 India OIS-9M 6.80 6.79 0 SONIA int rate benchmark 4.93 4.93 0 US SOFR 5.05 5.06 1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 25-07-2023 26-07-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (1.4) (1.4) 0 Reverse repo 0.6 0.6 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
24-07-2023 25-07-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 48.1 353.7 305.7 Debt 20.0 4.8 (15.2) Equity 28.1 349.0 320.8 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 431.5 497.9 66.3 Debt (326.1) 434.8 760.8 Equity 757.6 63.1 (694.5) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Mutual funds data as of 4 Jul and 5 Jul 2023
Oil prices fell by 0.9% as US crude inventories fell less than expected.
Fig 7 – Commodities
25-07-2023 26-07-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 83.6 82.9 (0.9) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,965.0 1,972.1 0.4 Copper (US$/ MT) 8,641.3 8,577.3 (0.7) Zinc (US$/MT) 2,479.5 2,464.1 (0.6) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,240.0 2,213.0 (1.2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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28 July 2023
Bank of Japan in a surprise move, tweaked its yield control curve (YCC) to allow for “greater flexibility”, while keeping policy rate unchanged. It will allow 10Y yield to trade in the range of +/- 50bps from its target. It also pledged to purchase 10Y bonds at 1% everyday through fixed rate purchase operations. This comes on the heels of data which showed CPI inflation in Tokyo rose by 3.2% in Jul’23 (est. 2.8%) from 3.1% in Jun’23. Separately, ECB hiked its policy rate by 25bps to a 23-year high. However, the ECB Chief stated that further rate decisions will be data dependent. Markets have now pared back expectations of future rate hikes by ECB, as growth in the region continues to show signs of strain. On the other hand, US economy continues to power through, with Q2CY23 GDP beating market expectations to rise by 2.4% (est. 1.8%) from 2% in Q1. Jobless claims fell by 7,000 to 221,000 (est. 235,000), indicating continued strength in the labour market.
Stocks in US ended in red, as strong macro data has raised the likelihood of more rate hikes by Fed. Dow Jones and S&P 500 fell by 0.7% and 0.6% respectively. On the other hand, Hang Seng rose by 1.4% led by technology stocks. Sensex fell by 0.7% led by losses in auto and oil and gas stocks. It is trading further lower today, while other Asian stocks are trading mixed.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
26-07-2023 27-07-2023 % change Dow Jones 35,520 35,283 (0.7) S & P 500 4,567 4,537 (0.6) FTSE 7,677 7,693 0.2 Nikkei 32,668 32,891 0.7 Hang Seng 19,365 19,639 1.4 Shanghai Comp 3,223 3,217 (0.2) Sensex 66,707 66,267 (0.7) Nifty 19,778 19,660 (0.6) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except INR and JPY, other global currencies depreciated against the dollar. DXY fell by 0.9% as US GDP rose more than expected in Q2. EUR fell by 1% as investors perceived ECB Chief’s comments as dovish. INR gained 0.1%. However, it is trading weaker today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
26-07-2023 27-07-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1086 1.0979 (1.0) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2941 1.2796 (1.1) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 140.24 139.48 0.5 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.00 81.94 0.1 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1431 7.1675 (0.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except Germany and Japan (lower), other global yields edged up. US 10Y yield rose sharply by 13bps amidst better than expected macro data from the US (GDP and jobless claims). 10Y yields in UK also edged up by 3bps. India’s 10Y yield rose by 2bps as inflation concerns weighed. It is trading further higher at 7.16% today ahead of auction results.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
26-07-2023 27-07-2023 change in bps US 3.87 4.00 13 UK 4.28 4.31 3 Germany 2.49 2.47 (1) Japan 0.46 0.45 (1) China 2.65 2.65 0 India 7.10 7.12 2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
26-07-2023 27-07-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.71 6.69 (2) Tbill-182 days 6.86 6.79 (7) Tbill-364 days 6.88 6.87 (1) G-Sec 2Y 7.00 7.03 3 India OIS-2M 6.61 6.59 (1) India OIS-9M 6.79 6.80 1 SONIA int rate benchmark 4.93 4.93 0 US SOFR 5.06 5.06 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 26-07-2023 27-07-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (1.4) (1.5) (0.1) Reverse repo 0.6 0.6 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
25-07-2023 26-07-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 353.7 140.6 (213.2) Debt 4.8 2.6 (2.1) Equity 349.0 137.9 (211.0) Mutual funds (Rs cr) 431.5 497.9 66.3 Debt (326.1) 434.8 760.8 Equity 757.6 63.1 (694.5) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Mutual funds data as of 4 Jul and 5 Jul 2023
Oil prices rose by 1.6%, amidst anticipation of a supply crunch.
Fig 7 – Commodities
26-07-2023 27-07-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 82.9 84.2 1.6 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,972.1 1,946.0 (1.3) Copper (US$/ MT) 8,577.3 8,528.0 (0.6) Zinc (US$/MT) 2,464.1 2,456.5 (0.3) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,213.0 2,205.0 (0.4) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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