Economic Weekly Wrap
17 July 2023 - 21 July 2023
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17 July 2023
Labour market data in the US showed some softening as non-farm payrolls rose by 209K (est.: 230k) in Jun’23. This is the weakest pace since Dec’20. However, wage growth remained sticky (average hourly earnings rose at the same pace of 0.4%, MoM basis). Thus, signalling that Fed fund rates are likely to remain elevated for some time. Elsewhere, in Germany, industrial production fell by 0.2% in May’23 from 0.3% increase in Apr’23. In China, PPI deflation (-5.4% in Jun’23 from -4.6% in May’23, YoY) deepened to its lowest in 7 years and CPI drooped to its 28-month low (0% from 0.2%). Both core PPI and CPI noticed a drop, reflecting weaker demand conditions. Thus, more stimulus on PBOC’s front may be forthcoming. On domestic front, progress of monsoon has picked pace with cumulative rainfall at 2% above LPA (long period average) as of 9 July against a deficit of 8% last week.
Most global indices ended higher on the back of the softer than expected inflation print from the US. Both Dow Jones and Hang Seng rose by 0.3% ahead of the release of the earnings report in US. A lot of these gains have emerged from technology stocks with soaring valuations. Sensex rose, led by gains in IT and metal stocks. It is trading further higher today, while other Asian stocks fell.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
13-07-2023 14-07-2023 % change Dow Jones 34,395 34,509 0.3 S & P 500 4,510 4,505 (0.1) FTSE 7,440 7,435 (0.1) Nikkei 32,419 32,391 (0.1) Hang Seng 19,351 19,414 0.3 Shanghai Comp 3,236 3,238 0 Sensex 65,559 66,061 0.8 Nifty 19,414 19,565 0.8 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Barring EUR (flat) and CNY (higher), other global currencies ended lower. DXY index after falling for the last couple of days, corrected and firmed up (0.1%). Fed is expected (95% chance) to hike rates by 25 bps in the next meet. Fed Governor, Waller also reiterated more hikes are expected this year. INR fell by 0.1%. It is trading further lower today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
13-07-2023 14-07-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1226 1.1228 0 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.3136 1.3093 (0.3) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 138.05 138.80 (0.5) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.07 82.17 (0.1) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1493 7.1420 0.1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except China (flat), other global yields closed higher. 10Y yields in US (+7bps) and Germany (+3bps) rose the most. Comments by Fed Governor Waller favouring rate hikes and remaining cautious on inflation, and surprise jump in University Michigan consumer sentiment index, impacted investor sentiments. India’s 10Y rose by 2bps following global cues. It is trading broadly flat today at 7.10%.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
13-07-2023 14-07-2023 change in bps US 3.76 3.83 7 UK 4.42 4.44 2 Germany 2.49 2.51 3 Japan 0.48 0.48 1 China 2.65 2.65 0 India 7.08 7.09 2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
13-07-2023 14-07-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.71 6.71 0 Tbill-182 days 6.84 6.84 0 Tbill-364 days 6.86 6.86 0 G-Sec 2Y 7.00 7.02 1 India OIS-2M 6.59 6.60 1 India OIS-9M 6.75 6.76 1 SONIA int rate benchmark 4.93 4.93 0 US SOFR 5.05 5.06 1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 13-07-2023 14-07-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (2.1) (1.8) 0.3 Reverse repo 0.5 0 (0.5) Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
12-07-2023 13-07-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (89.0) 693.2 782.3 Debt (48.5) 5.1 53.6 Equity (40.6) 688.1 728.7 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 2,907.4 (55.5) (2,962.9) Debt 1,804.0 (416.8) (2,220.9) Equity 1,103.4 361.3 (742.1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Mutual funds data as of 4 Jul and 5 Jul 2023
Crude prices declined by 1.8%, as stronger USD made it more expensive for investors to hold onto oil.
Fig 7 – Commodities
13-07-2023 14-07-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 81.4 79.9 (1.8) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,960.5 1,955.2 (0.3) Copper (US$/ MT) 8,687.0 8,661.8 (0.3) Zinc (US$/MT) 2,460.3 2,418.8 (1.7) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,278.0 2,276.5 (0.1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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18 July 2023
As China’s economy is showing mixed signs of growth (industrial production up; moderation in retail sales and FAI), investors are expecting a global growth slowdown in Q3. In the wake of this, and slowing prices in the US, analysts expect Fed to pause after announcing a final 25bps hike in Jul’23. Some are even betting on a rate cut from Dec’23. On the other hand, it is certain that BoE and ECB will continue hiking rates for some time. RBA in its minutes released today, also reaffirmed that some more tightening maybe needed as inflation is tending to be stickier than anticipated. Domestically, RBI in its bulletin cautioned that the fight against inflation is not over, and highlighted that growth prospects still remain bright.
Global indices ended mixed. US indices climbed up ahead of the Q2 earnings season and the release of key macro data (retail sales and industrial production). Shanghai Comp slipped, weighed down by poor GDP print for Q2. On the other hand, Sensex rose, led by strong gains in banking and oil & gas stocks. It is trading higher today, while other Asian stocks are trading mixed.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
14-07-2023 17-07-2023 % change Dow Jones 34,509 34,585 0.2 S & P 500 4,505 4,523 0.4 FTSE 7,435 7,406 (0.4) Nikkei 32,419 32,391 (0.1) Hang Seng 19,351 19,414 0.3 Shanghai Comp 3,238 3,210 (0.9) Sensex 66,061 66,590 0.8 Nifty 19,565 19,711 0.8 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Barring EUR and INR (higher), other global currencies ended lower. DXY index retreated yet again as it continued to hover for further direction. The attention would move towards upcoming Central Bank decisions scheduled next week Fed is likely to hike rates for the last time in Jul’23. INR appreciated as oil prices slipped. It is trading lower today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
14-07-2023 17-07-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1228 1.1236 0.1 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.3093 1.3073 (0.2) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 138.05 138.80 (0.5) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.17 82.05 0.1 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1420 7.1735 (0.4) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields mostly ended lower, with 10Y yields in US and Germany (-3bps) dropping the most. Cooler than expected inflation print in the US has given hopes that Fed might pause after Jul’23 meeting and some are even expecting a rate cut from Dec’23 onwards. India’s 10Y also declined by 2bps following global cues and dip in oil prices. It is trading broadly flat today at 7.07%.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
14-07-2023 17-07-2023 change in bps US 3.83 3.81 (3) UK 4.44 4.43 (1) Germany 2.51 2.48 (3) Japan 0.48 0.48 1 China 2.65 2.64 (1) India 7.09 7.08 (2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
14-07-2023 17-07-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.71 6.70 (1) Tbill-182 days 6.84 6.84 0 Tbill-364 days 6.86 6.86 0 G-Sec 2Y 7.02 6.99 (3) India OIS-2M 6.60 6.59 (1) India OIS-9M 6.76 6.74 (2) SONIA int rate benchmark 4.93 4.93 0 US SOFR 5.06 5.05 (1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 14-07-2023 17-07-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (1.8) (1.3) 0.5 Reverse repo 0 0.6 0.6 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
13-07-2023 14-07-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 693.2 404.3 (288.9) Debt 5.1 5.0 (0.2) Equity 688.1 399.4 (288.7) Mutual funds (Rs cr) 431.5 497.9 66.3 Debt (326.1) 434.8 760.8 Equity 757.6 63.1 (694.5) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Mutual funds data as of 4 Jul and 5 Jul 2023
Crude prices declined by 1.7%, as weaken than expected China’s macro data (GDP, retail sales, FAI), dented prospects of renewed global demand.
Fig 7 – Commodities
14-07-2023 17-07-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 79.9 78.5 (1.7) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,955.2 1,955.0 0 Copper (US$/ MT) 8,661.8 8,468.0 (2.2) Zinc (US$/MT) 2,418.8 2,392.3 (1.1) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,276.5 2,255.0 (0.9) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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19 July 2023
US industrial production (MoM) in Jun’23 fell again by (-) 0.5% (est.: 0%), at an unchanged rate from May’23. However, manufacturing output fell faster by (-0.3%) in Jun’23, compared with (-) 0.2% in May’23. Contraction in output of mining and utilities also accelerated. Retail sales (MoM) slowed from 0.5% in May’23 to 0.2% (est.: 0.5%) in Jun’23. Retail sales (ex-automobiles & gasoline) also eased to 0.3% from 0.5%. Weaker than anticipated macro data has raised hopes of Fed pausing after Jul’23. ECB officials also believe that inflation may cool down faster, giving wind to expectations of rate cut from Sep’23 onwards. Canada’s inflation (2.8% in Jun’23 versus 3.4%) has also fallen within BoC’s targeted range (a first time Mar’21).
Barring Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp, other global indices ended higher. Dow Jones climbed up by 1.1% on the back of strong earnings report, offsetting any negative commentary (weaker than anticipated retail sales). Rally in the domestic market was led by IT and power stocks that drove the Sensex to an all-time high. It is further trading higher today in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
17-07-2023 18-07-2023 % change Dow Jones 34,585 34,952 1.1 S & P 500 4,523 4,555 0.7 FTSE 7,406 7,454 0.6 Nikkei 32,391 32,494 0.3 Hang Seng 19,414 19,016 (2.1) Shanghai Comp 3,210 3,198 (0.4) Sensex 66,590 66,795 0.3 Nifty 19,711 19,749 0.2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies ended mixed. DXY gained by 0.1%. Euro is expected to be lower amidst dovish commentary by ECB officials. GBP ended lower ahead of the release of the CPI data. INR appreciated despite gains in oil prices. It is trading lower today while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
17-07-2023 18-07-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1228 1.1229 0 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.3093 1.3036 (0.4) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 138.80 138.83 0 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.17 82.03 0.2 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1420 7.1864 (0.6) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except Japan (flat), other major global yields ended lower, with 10Y yields in UK and Germany falling the most. ECB official’s remark that inflation might fall more quickly than anticipated and that rate cuts can be a possibility from Sep’23 onwards, drove the investor sentiments. Weaker than expected US industrial output and retail sales also gave hope that Fed will end its rate hike cycle. India’s 10Y fell by 2bps following global cues. It is trading flat today at 7.07%.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
17-07-2023 18-07-2023 change in bps US 3.81 3.79 (2) UK 4.43 4.33 (10) Germany 2.48 2.39 (9) Japan 0.48 0.48 0 China 2.64 2.63 (1) India 7.08 7.06 (2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
17-07-2023 18-07-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.70 6.70 0 Tbill-182 days 6.84 6.83 (1) Tbill-364 days 6.86 6.85 (1) G-Sec 2Y 6.99 6.98 (1) India OIS-2M 6.59 6.58 (1) India OIS-9M 6.74 6.73 (1) SONIA int rate benchmark 4.93 4.93 0 US SOFR 5.06 5.05 (1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 17-07-2023 18-07-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (1.4) (1.3) 0.1 Reverse repo 0.6 0.6 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
14-07-2023 17-07-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 404.3 85.3 (319.1) Debt 5.0 23.8 18.9 Equity 399.4 61.4 (337.9) Mutual funds (Rs cr) 431.5 497.9 66.3 Debt (326.1) 434.8 760.8 Equity 757.6 63.1 (694.5) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Mutual funds data as of 4 Jul and 5 Jul 2023
Crude prices rose by 1.4%, as major central banks signalled cooling inflation, which in turn can help boost global demand.
Fig 7 – Commodities
17-07-2023 18-07-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 78.5 79.6 1.4 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,955.0 1,978.7 1.2 Copper (US$/ MT) 8,468.0 8,445.0 (0.3) Zinc (US$/MT) 2,392.3 2,377.3 (0.6) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,255.0 2,203.5 (2.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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20 July 2023
UK’s retail inflation print for Jun’23 came in lower than expected (8.2%) at 7.9%, down from 8.7% in May’23. Core inflation also eased, but remains elevated at 6.9% (7.1% in May’23). Dip in fuel prices helped bring headline number down. This has increased hopes of BoE hiking rates less aggressively, and there are less chances of policy rate crossing 6% mark (currently at 5%). In US, single-family housing starts fell by 7% in Jun’23, following 18.7% jump in May’23 and multi-family starts were down by 11.6%. In case of building permits (proxy for future construction activity), they rose for single-family homes but declined for multi-family homes. China has kept its lending rates unchanged, despite current weakness in economy.
Barring Hang Seng (lower) and Shanghai Comp (flat), other global indices ended higher. Stocks in the UK rallied after inflation cooled off, thus easing pressure on BoE. US stocks continued to advance, supported by earnings report. Sensex too ended in green with gains in power and consumer durable stocks. It is trading lower today while other Asian indices are trading mixed.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
18-07-2023 19-07-2023 % change Dow Jones 34,952 35,061 0.3 S & P 500 4,555 4,566 0.2 FTSE 7,454 7,588 1.8 Nikkei 32,494 32,896 1.2 Hang Seng 19,016 18,952 (0.3) Shanghai Comp 3,198 3,199 0 Sensex 66,795 67,097 0.5 Nifty 19,749 19,833 0.4 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies ended lower. Dollar index climbed up by 0.3%. Pound slid after UK's inflation eased and is expected to challenge BoE's hawkish stance. CNY fell by 0.5%, but some pressure is expected to be mitigated with the announcement of relaxing cross-border financing rule. INR depreciated by 0.1% and is trading stronger today. Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
18-07-2023 19-07-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1229 1.1201 (0.2) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.3036 1.2940 (0.7) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 138.83 139.65 (0.6) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.03 82.10 (0.1) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1864 7.2232 (0.5) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields ended mixed, with 10Y yields in UK (-12bps) and US (-4bps) falling the most, while it picked up in Germany (+5bps). Lower than expected inflation in UK, reduced the possibility of BoE’s peak policy rate cross 6% mark. Weak housing start data from the US also dampened possibility of aggressive rate stance by Fed. In Eurozone, sticky core inflation still remains a concern. India’s 10Y rose by 2bps. It is trading flat today at 7.08%.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
18-07-2023 19-07-2023 change in bps US 3.79 3.75 (4) UK 4.33 4.22 (12) Germany 2.39 2.44 5 Japan 0.48 0.47 (1) China 2.63 2.63 0 India 7.06 7.08 2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
18-07-2023 19-07-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.70 6.70 0 Tbill-182 days 6.83 6.85 2 Tbill-364 days 6.85 6.87 2 G-Sec 2Y 6.99 6.98 (1) India OIS-2M 6.58 6.60 2 India OIS-9M 6.73 6.75 2 SONIA int rate benchmark 4.93 4.93 0 US SOFR 5.06 5.06 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 18-07-2023 19-07-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (1.3) (1.1) 0.2 Reverse repo 0.6 0.6 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
17-07-2023 18-07-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 85.3 361.5 276.3 Debt 23.8 53.5 29.7 Equity 61.4 308.1 246.6 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 431.5 497.9 66.3 Debt (326.1) 434.8 760.8 Equity 757.6 63.1 (694.5) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Mutual funds data as of 4 Jul and 5 Jul 2023
Crude prices fell by 0.2%, as US$ strengthened and slowdown in global economy dampened hopes of improved demand.
Fig 7 – Commodities
18-07-2023 19-07-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 79.6 79.5 (0.2) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,978.7 1,976.6 (0.1) Copper (US$/ MT) 8,445.0 8,401.8 (0.5) Zinc (US$/MT) 2,377.3 2,344.5 (1.4) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,203.5 2,190.5 (0.6) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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21 July 2023
Labour market data for US shows that it continues to strengthen, as initial jobless claims for the week ending 15 Jul’23 fell by 9k to 228k (est.: 241k). The 4-week moving average also saw a dip of 9.2k. On the other hand, after registering a dip in new home sales, existing home sales data also showed a decline in Jun’23 (-3.3% MoM), following 0.2% increase in May’23. In Japan also, some signs of slowdown are visible with export growth in Jun’23 rebounding less (+1.5% YoY) than estimated (+2.6%), compared with last month (+0.6%). Further, data shows that CPI again rose in Jun’23 (3.3%) from 3.2% in May’23. Core CPI (ex-fresh food) also advanced. While no immediate change in BoJ policy (due next week) is expected, but it might push the central bank to begin tightening eventually.
Global indices ended mixed. Dow Jones continued its upward momentum, however S&P500 took a breather and ended lower led by disappointing results from tech firms. Cooler than anticipated inflation data in UK, pushed FTSE higher. Sensex advanced further led by gains in banking and oil & gas stocks. However, it is trading lower today in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
19-07-2023 20-07-2023 % change Dow Jones 35,061 35,225 0.5 S & P 500 4,566 4,535 (0.7) FTSE 7,588 7,646 0.8 Nikkei 32,896 32,491 (1.2) Hang Seng 18,952 18,928 (0.1) Shanghai Comp 3,199 3,170 (0.9) Sensex 67,097 67,572 0.7 Nifty 19,833 19,979 0.7 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Barring INR and CNY, other global currencies ended lower. Dollar index firmed up (0.6%) amidst news of labour market tightness. Euro retreated even as inflation eased and focus shifted towards upcoming ECB meet next week. INR appreciated by 0.1%.It is trading weaker today while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
19-07-2023 20-07-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1201 1.1130 (0.6) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2940 1.2868 (0.6) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 139.65 140.07 (0.3) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.10 81.99 0.1 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.2232 7.1796 0.6 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except Japan and China (flat), other major global yields ended higher. 10Y yields in US, UK and Germany rose significantly. Latest US labour market data has revived fears that interest rates may remain elevated for longer than previously anticipated and thus diminished hopes of rate cuts this year. India’s 10Y rose by 1bps, following global cues. It is trading higher at 7.10% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
19-07-2023 20-07-2023 change in bps US 3.75 3.85 10 UK 4.22 4.28 6 Germany 2.44 2.49 5 Japan 0.47 0.47 0 China 2.63 2.62 0 India 7.08 7.08 1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
19-07-2023 20-07-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.70 6.69 (1) Tbill-182 days 6.85 6.84 (1) Tbill-364 days 6.87 6.87 0 G-Sec 2Y 6.98 6.98 0 India OIS-2M 6.60 6.61 1 India OIS-9M 6.75 6.76 1 SONIA int rate benchmark 4.93 4.93 0 US SOFR 5.06 5.05 (1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 19-07-2023 20-07-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (1.1) (1.1) 0 Reverse repo 0.6 0.6 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
18-07-2023 19-07-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 361.5 245.8 (115.8) Debt 53.5 (21.4) (74.9) Equity 308.1 267.2 (40.8) Mutual funds (Rs cr) 431.5 497.9 66.3 Debt (326.1) 434.8 760.8 Equity 757.6 63.1 (694.5) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Mutual funds data as of 4 Jul and 5 Jul 2023
Crude prices rose by 0.2%, following drop in US crude inventories.
Fig 7 – Commodities
19-07-2023 20-07-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 79.5 79.6 0.2 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,976.6 1,969.5 (0.4) Copper (US$/ MT) 8,401.8 8,460.8 0.7 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,344.5 2,369.8 1.1 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,190.5 2,201.0 0.5 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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