Economic Weekly Wrap
10 July 2023 - 14 July 2023
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10 july 2023
Labour market data in the US showed some softening as non-farm payrolls rose by 209K (est.: 230k) in Jun’23. This is the weakest pace since Dec’20. However, wage growth remained sticky (average hourly earnings rose at the same pace of 0.4%, MoM basis). Thus, signalling that Fed fund rates are likely to remain elevated for some time. Elsewhere, in Germany, industrial production fell by 0.2% in May’23 from 0.3% increase in Apr’23. In China, PPI deflation (-5.4% in Jun’23 from -4.6% in May’23, YoY) deepened to its lowest in 7 years and CPI drooped to its 28-month low (0% from 0.2%). Both core PPI and CPI noticed a drop, reflecting weaker demand conditions. Thus, more stimulus on PBOC’s front may be forthcoming. On domestic front, progress of monsoon has picked pace with cumulative rainfall at 2% above LPA (long period average) as of 9 July against a deficit of 8% last week.
Global markets ended in red as investors tracked the key US jobs report. While the pace of job additions softened, wage growth remained robust. Investors now await corporate earnings results and US inflation report to assess the future path of rates. Nikkei declined the most by 1.2%, followed by Hang Seng which shed 0.9%. Sensex too dipped by 0.8%, amidst a fall in power and real estate stocks. However, it is trading higher today, in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
6-07-2023 7-07-2023 % change Dow Jones 33,922 33,735 (0.6) S & P 500 4,412 4,399 (0.3) FTSE 7,281 7,257 (0.3) Nikkei 32,773 32,388 (1.2) Hang Seng 18,533 18,366 (0.9) Shanghai Comp 3,206 3,197 (0.3) Sensex 65,786 65,280 (0.8) Nifty 19,497 19,332 (0.8) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except INR (lower), other global currencies advanced against the dollar. DXY fell by 0.9% following jobs data. JPY gained by 1.3% as wage growth rose at its sharpest pace since 1995. INR depreciated by 0.3% as oil prices inched up. However, it is trading stronger today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
6-07-2023 7-07-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0889 1.0967 0.7 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2740 1.2839 0.8 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 144.07 142.21 1.3 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.51 82.74 (0.3) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.2488 7.2254 0.3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields closed mixed. While UK 10Y yield closed a tad lower by 1bps despite BoE Governor’s reiteration of that fact that abiding to the 2% inflation target is important for policy credibility. US 10Y yield rose by 3bps as wages remained sticky. China’s 10Y yield closed stable eyeing inflation data. India’s 10Y yield closed a tad higher by 1bps. It is trading at the same level today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
6-07-2023 7-07-2023 change in bps US 4.03 4.06 3 UK 4.66 4.65 (1) Germany 2.63 2.64 1 Japan 0.41 0.43 1 China 2.64 2.64 0 India 7.15 7.16 1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
6-07-2023 7-07-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.72 6.73 1 Tbill-182 days 6.82 6.77 (5) Tbill-364 days 6.82 6.85 3 G-Sec 2Y 7.03 7.08 5 India OIS-2M 6.61 6.63 2 India OIS-9M 6.77 6.78 1 SONIA int rate benchmark 4.93 4.93 0 US SOFR 5.06 5.06 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 6-07-2023 7-07-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (2.4) (1.8) 0.6 Reverse repo 1.0 0.1 (0.9) Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
5-07-2023 6-07-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 321.2 431.3 110.1 Debt 42.6 87.8 45.2 Equity 278.7 343.6 64.9 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 878.2 559.6 (318.6) Debt 1,206.2 847.7 (358.6) Equity (328.0) (288.1) 39.9 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Mutual funds data as of 4 Jul and 5 Jul 2023
Oil prices rose led by announcement of output cuts (Saudi Arabia and Russia).
Fig 7 – Commodities
6-07-2023 7-07-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 76.5 78.5 2.5 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,910.9 1,925.1 0.7 Copper (US$/ MT) 8,246.0 8,360.5 1.4 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,356.8 2,352.8 (0.2) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,129.0 2,145.5 0.8 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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11 July 2023
Fed officials namely Michael Barr, Mester and Daly spoke about a steeper Fed fund rate path in an effort to bring down inflation sustainably to the targeted 2% level. The upcoming CPI print of the region is going to shed more light. Estimate suggest 0.3% sequential pick up in both CPI and core CPI print. Elsewhere, in China, further stimulus rolled down in the form of extending loan relief for property developers. Even ex-official of PBOC hinted at more borrowing in an effort to give fiscal push to the economy. In the Eurozone, Sentix investor sentiment index dropped to its lowest since Nov’22. In UK, BoE Governor remained affirmative that the past impact of rate hike would translate into lower inflation prints in the coming months. On domestic front, market keenly awaits CPI (Bo Best.: 4.6%) and IIP (4.5%) data releases.
Barring Nikkei, other global markets ended in green monitoring comments from Fed officials and supported by China’ stimulus measures. Investors also braced for the start of the earnings season. Dow Jones and Hang Seng both rose by 0.6% each. Nikkei declined by 0.6%, led by losses in healthcare stocks. Sensex closed 0.1% higher, supported by gains in metal stocks. It is trading further higher today, in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
7-07-2023 10-07-2023 % change Dow Jones 33,735 33,944 0.6 S & P 500 4,399 4,410 0.2 FTSE 7,257 7,274 0.2 Nikkei 32,388 32,190 (0.6) Hang Seng 18,366 18,480 0.6 Shanghai Comp 3,197 3,204 0.2 Sensex 65,280 65,344 0.1 Nifty 19,332 19,356 0.1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except CNY, other global currencies appreciated against the dollar. DXY fell by 0.3% to a 2-month low as labour market data showed some degree of strain in the economy. JPY rose the most by 0.6%. INR also appreciated by 0.2% tracking global cues and lower oil prices. It is trading further stronger today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
7-07-2023 10-07-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0967 1.1001 0.3 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2839 1.2861 0.2 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 142.21 141.31 0.6 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.74 82.58 0.2 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.2254 7.2260 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields closed mixed. US 10Y yield fell by 7bps as labour market data showed some degree of softening. Japan’s 10Y yield on the other hand rose by 3bps on expectation of adjust in the yield curve control policy. China’s 10Y yield closed stable on the back of stimulus. India’s 10Y yield fell by 2bps, tracking US yield. It is trading lower at 7.12% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
7-07-2023 10-07-2023 change in bps US 4.06 3.99 (7) UK 4.65 4.64 (1) Germany 2.64 2.64 0 Japan 0.43 0.46 3 China 2.64 2.64 0 India 7.16 7.14 (2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
7-07-2023 10-07-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.73 6.72 (1) Tbill-182 days 6.77 6.81 4 Tbill-364 days 6.85 6.86 1 G-Sec 2Y 7.08 7.08 0- India OIS-2M 6.63 6.62 (1) India OIS-9M 6.78 6.79 1 SONIA int rate benchmark 4.93 4.93 0 US SOFR 5.06 5.06 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 7-07-2023 10-07-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (1.8) (1.6) 0.2 Reverse repo 0.1 1.2 0.2 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
6-07-2023 7-07-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 431.3 169.4 (262.0) Debt 87.8 64.0 (23.7) Equity 343.6 105.3 (238.2) Mutual funds (Rs cr) 1,144.8 (929.9) (2,074.7) Debt 1,298.2 (688.2) (1,986.4) Equity (153.4) (241.7) (88.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Mutual funds data as of 4 Jul and 5 Jul 2023
Oil prices fell amidst demand concerns following weak data from US and China.
Fig 7 – Commodities
7-07-2023 10-07-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 78.5 77.7 (1.0) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,925.1 1,925.4 0.0 Copper (US$/ MT) 8,360.5 8,356.5 0 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,352.8 2,335.0 (0.8) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,145.5 2,147.0 0.1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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12 July 2023
Global macro data remained mixed. US small business optimism index rose to its 7- month high in Jun’23. In UK, demand conditions and labour market remained buoyant. The BRC sales data rose by 4.2% in Jun’23 compared to 3.7% in May’23, on YoY basis. The weekly earnings excluding bonus matched its record high increase in Jun’23 (7.3%). This raised hopes of a faster pace of rate hike by BoE. In Germany, CPI rose by 0.3%, on MoM basis, matching expectations. However, Zew survey data reflected dented economic sentiments. In Japan, PPI softened by 0.2% in Jun’23, on MoM basis. Even core machine orders fell at a sharper pace by 7.6% in May’23 against 5.5% increase in Apr’23. On domestic front, capex by CPSEs have reached 32% of their target, higher than same period of previous year.
Except Nikkei (flat), other global indices ended higher. Investors await US CPI report and earnings reports. US markets edged up led by gains in financial stocks. Stocks in China and Hong Kong advanced as government announced more stimulus measures. Sensex inched up by 0.4%, supported by gains in capital goods and consumer durables stocks. It is trading further higher today, in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
10-07-2023
11-07-2023
% change
Dow Jones
33,944
34,261
0.9
S & P 500
4,410
4,439
0.7
FTSE
7,274
7,283
0.1
Nikkei
32,190
32,204
0
Hang Seng
18,480
18,660
1.0
Shanghai Comp
3,204
3,221
0.6
Sensex
65,344
65,618
0.4
Nifty
19,356
19,439
0.4
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies continued their advance against the dollar. DXY fell for the 4th straight session as investors await US CPI data for further cues on Fed’s future rate action. GBP rose by 0.6% as UK’s wage growth was higher than expected, raising the possibility of further rate hikes by BoE. INR appreciated by 0.3%. It is trading further stronger today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
10-07-2023
11-07-2023
% change
EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD)
1.1001
1.1009
0.1
GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD)
1.2861
1.2933
0.6
USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD)
141.31
140.36
0.7
USD/INR (INR / 1 USD)
82.58
82.37
0.3
USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD)
7.2260
7.2098
0.2
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields closed mixed. US 10Y yield fell by 2bps as some softening on CPI front is expected. UK’s 10Y yield on the other hand rose by 2bps eyeing labour market data. Japan and China’s 10Y yield closed stable. India’s 10Y yield fell by 4bps,on comfortable liquidity conditions. It is trading at the same level today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
10-07-2023
11-07-2023
change in bps
US
3.99
3.97
(2)
UK
4.64
4.66
2
Germany
2.64
2.65
1
Japan
0.46
0.46
0
China
2.64
2.64
0
India
7.14
7.09
(4)
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
10-07-2023
11-07-2023
change in bps
Tbill-91 days
6.72
6.71
(1)
Tbill-182 days
6.81
6.78
(3)
Tbill-364 days
6.86
6.85
(1)
G-Sec 2Y
7.08
7.08
-
India OIS-2M
6.62
6.59
(3)
India OIS-9M
6.79
6.76
(3)
SONIA int rate benchmark
4.93
4.93
0
US SOFR
5.06
5.06
0
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn
10-07-2023
11-07-2023
change (Rs tn)
Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit)
(1.6)
(1.4)
0.2
Reverse repo
1.2
0.1
(1.1)
Repo
0
0
0
Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
7-07-2023
10-07-2023
change (US$ mn/Rs
cr)
FII (US$ mn)
169.4
10.2
(159.2)
Debt
64.0
(118.0)
(182.1)
Equity
105.3
128.2
22.9
Mutual funds (Rs cr)
(1,642.3)
1,165.1
2,807.4
Debt
(1,125.9)
(16.7)
1,109.3
Equity
(516.4)
1,181.7
1,698.2
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Mutual funds data as of 4 Jul and 5 Jul 2023
Oil prices rose by 2% amidst forecast of higher demand by both IEA and OPEC.
Fig 7 – Commodities
10-07-2023
11-07-2023
% change
Brent crude (US$/bbl)
77.7
79.4
2.2
Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce)
1,925.4
1,932.2
0.4
Copper (US$/ MT)
8,356.5
8,305.0
(0.6)
Zinc (US$/MT)
2,335.0
2,340.9
0.3
Aluminium (US$/MT)
2,147.0
2,168.5
1.0
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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13 July 2023
Inflation data prints in the US and India were the primary market movers. In the US, inflation rose less than expected by 0.2% (est. 0.3%) in Jun’23, on MoM basis. The YoY print of 3% was the lowest since Mar’21. Even core CPI moderated to 0.2% (MoM) and 4.8% (YoY). This has raised hopes that Fed may be soon nearing its end of rate hike cycle. Elsewhere in India, CPI rose more than expected by 4.8%. Thus the gap between India and US inflation rate has widened to 1.8% in Jun’23 from 0.3% in May’23. However, RBI’s decision would be contingent on the evolution of domestic growth and inflation dynamics. In China, signs of slowdown were reflected in the weak export performance, which fell by 12.8% in Jun’23, on YoY basis. Notably, export growth of the region remained weak in 4 out of 6 months of CY23.
US stocks rejoiced as softening inflation print has led to expectations of a possible end to the Fed’s rate hike cycle. Both S&P 500 and Dow Jones ended higher. Amongst other indices, FTSE rose the most by 1.8%, led by gains in banking and mining stocks. Asian indices ended mixed. Sensex declined 0.3%, as technology shares retreated. However, it is trading higher today, in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
11-07-2023 12-07-2023 % change Dow Jones 34,261 34,347 0.3 S & P 500 4,439 4,472 0.7 FTSE 7,283 7,416 1.8 Nikkei 32,204 31,944 (0.8) Hang Seng 18,660 18,861 1.1 Shanghai Comp 3,221 3,196 (0.8) Sensex 65,618 65,394 (0.3) Nifty 19,439 19,384 (0.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Following a weaker than expected inflation report from the US, DXY dropped to a more than 1 year low, falling by 1.2%. Other currencies advanced. JPY and EUR gained the most, rising by 1.3% and 1.1% respectively. Gains in INR were capped at 0.1%, amidst higher oil prices. It is trading stronger today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
11-07-2023 12-07-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1009 1.1129 1.1 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2933 1.2988 0.4 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 140.36 138.50 1.3 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.37 82.25 0.1 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.2098 7.1655 0.6 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields closed mixed. UK and US’ 10Y yield fell by15bps and 11bps respectively. A moderation in CPI data again raised the possibility of an end in rate hike cycle. Even Germany’s 10Y yield fell by 7bps ahead of ECB minutes. China’s 10Y yield closed stable. India’s 10Y yield rose by 2bps. It is trading lower at 7.08% today, as market has already priced in the increase in CPI.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
11-07-2023 12-07-2023 change in bps US 3.97 3.86 (11) UK 4.66 4.51 (15) Germany 2.65 2.58 (7) Japan 0.46 0.47 2 China 2.64 2.64 0 India 7.09 7.12 2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
11-07-2023 12-07-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.71 6.73 2 Tbill-182 days 6.78 6.85 7 Tbill-364 days 6.85 6.86 1 G-Sec 2Y 7.08 7.07 (1) India OIS-2M 6.59 6.61 2 India OIS-9M 6.76 6.80 4 SONIA int rate benchmark 4.93 4.93 0 US SOFR 5.06 5.06 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 11-07-2023 12-07-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (1.4) (1.8) (0.4) Reverse repo 0.1 0.5 0.4 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
10-07-2023 11-07-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 10.2 217.5 207.3 Debt (118.0) 39.1 157.1 Equity 128.2 178.4 50.2 Mutual funds (Rs cr) (1,642.3) 1,165.1 2,807.4 Debt (1,125.9) (16.7) 1,109.3 Equity (516.4) 1,181.7 1,698.2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Mutual funds data as of 4 Jul and 5 Jul 2023
Oil prices rose as expectations of fewer rate hikes boosted demand outlook.
Fig 7 – Commodities
11-07-2023 12-07-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 79.4 80.1 0.9 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,932.2 1,957.4 1.3 Copper (US$/ MT) 8,305.0 8,488.8 2.2 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,340.9 2,411.0 3.0 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,168.5 2,236.0 3.1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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14 July 2023
In the US, PPI data also showed some degree of softening in prices as both on MoM and YoY basis (0.1% each) it moderated more than expected. On YoY basis, it was the smallest increase since CY20. Elsewhere, Fed official Mary Daly also expressed comfort on inflation print in Jun’23. Thus market is pricing in the peak of interest rate hike cycle to come soon. The labour market data surprised as jobless claims rose more than expected to 237K (est.: 250K). In the UK, monthly GDP contracted by 0.1%, which is less than expectation of -0.3%. ECB minutes reflected restrictive policy to continue. Even BoJ ex-official signalled some degree of adjustment in the yield curve control policy. PBOC’s Deputy Governor on the other hand spoke of more stimulus.
Global markets ended higher as a slowing US inflation has raised the likelihood that the Fed may pause after a final rate hike in Jul’23. Markets in Asia rose sharply, brushing off weakness in China’s trade data. Hang Seng rose the most, followed by Nikkei. Gains in Sensex were more modest at 0.3%, and were led by technology and real estate stocks. It is trading further higher today, in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
12-07-2023 13-07-2023 % change Dow Jones 34,347 34,395 0.1 S & P 500 4,472 4,510 0.8 FTSE 7,416 7,440 0.3 Nikkei 31,944 32,419 1.5 Hang Seng 18,861 19,351 2.6 Shanghai Comp 3,196 3,236 1.3 Sensex 65,394 65,559 0.3 Nifty 19,384 19,414 0.2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
DXY continued to struggle as US PPI inflation softened, suggesting an end to Fed’s rate hike cycle. It fell by 0.7%, to a 15-month low. GBP rose by 1.1% as UK’s GDP growth surprised positively. INR appreciated by 0.2%, even as oil prices rose. It is trading further stronger today, in line with its Asian peers.
Fig 2 – Currencies
12-07-2023 13-07-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1129 1.1226 0.9 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2988 1.3136 1.1 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 138.50 138.05 0.3 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.25 82.07 0.2 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1655 7.1493 0.2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except Japan and China (stable), global yields broadly closed lower. All US, UK and Germany’s 10Y yield fell by 9bps each. Softening CPI and PPI print in the US provided comfort to investors that rate hike cycle in the US will end soon. India’s 10Y yield fell by 4bps, taking global cues. It is trading lower at 7.07% today ahead of auction results.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
12-07-2023 13-07-2023 change in bps US 3.86 3.76 (9) UK 4.51 4.42 (9) Germany 2.58 2.49 (9) Japan 0.47 0.48 0 China 2.64 2.65 0 India 7.12 7.08 (4) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
12-07-2023 13-07-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.73 6.71 (2) Tbill-182 days 6.85 6.84 (1) Tbill-364 days 6.86 6.86 - G-Sec 2Y 7.07 7.00 (6) India OIS-2M 6.61 6.59 (2) India OIS-9M 6.80 6.75 (4) SONIA int rate benchmark 4.93 4.93 (0) US SOFR 5.06 5.05 (1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 12-07-2023 13-07-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (1.8) (2.1) 0.3 Reverse repo 0.5 0.5 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
11-07-2023 12-07-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 217.5 (89.0) (306.5) Debt 39.1 (48.5) (87.5) Equity 178.4 (40.6) (219.0) Mutual funds (Rs cr) (1,642.3) 1,165.1 2,807.4 Debt (1,125.9) (16.7) 1,109.3 Equity (516.4) 1,181.7 1,698.2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Mutual funds data as of 4 Jul and 5 Jul 2023
Oil prices rose further amidst upbeat demand outlook and a weaker dollar.
Fig 7 – Commodities
12-07-2023 13-07-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 80.1 81.4 1.6 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,957.4 1,960.5 0.2 Copper (US$/ MT) 8,488.8 8,687.0 2.3 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,411.0 2,460.3 2.0 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,236.0 2,278.0 1.9 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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