Economic Weekly Wrap
03 July 2023 - 07 July 2023
-
03 july 2023
Global central banks are expected to remain data dependent as they continue to battle elevated inflation. Recently released data including the PCE (4.6% versus 4.7%) report concluded that inflation has cooled off in May more than expected pointing to the desired results of the Fed’s rate hike cycle. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are now anticipating 84% likelihood of 25bps rate hike by Fed in the upcoming Jul’23 meet. Global indices ended in green, while Dollar softened as Fed is expected to become less aggressive on rate hike. Crude prices settled higher despite some concerns over dampening demand.
Barring Nikkei and Hang Seng, other global indices closed higher. Strong economic data from the US (GDP) along with US banks passing Fed’s annual stress test, lifted investor sentiments. Europe’s stock indices edged up after Eurozone’s inflation came in lower than anticipated. Sensex too surged, led by gains in IT and auto stocks. It is trading higher today, in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
29-06-2023 30-06-2023 % change Dow Jones 34,122 34,408 0.8 S & P 500 4,396 4,450 1.2 FTSE 7,472 7,532 0.8 Nikkei 33,234 33,189 (0.1) Hang Seng 18,934 18,916 (0.1) Shanghai Comp 3,182 3,202 0.6 Sensex 63,915 64,719 1.3 Nifty 18,972 19,189 1.1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Apart from INR (flat) and CNY (lower), other major currencies ended higher against the dollar. DXY fell by 0.4% as moderation in PCE index has renewed hopes of less aggressive monetary policy stance of Fed. GBP gained the most supported by rise in yield. INR ended flat. However, it is trading higher today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
29-06-2023 30-06-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0865 1.0909 0.4 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2613 1.2703 0.7 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 144.76 144.31 0.3 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.06 82.04 0 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.2475 7.2537 (0.1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields closed mixed. Weaker than expected core PCE print for May’23 has reignited hopes of Fed ending the rate hike cycle after its Jul’23 policy meeting. Yields in UK inched up as market participants are pricing in 70% chance that BoE’s policy rate will push up to 6.25% by the year end. India’s 10Y yield rose sharply by 6bps (to highest since Apr-end), owing to concerns over demand and supply of papers in Q2, as was also visible in the results of weekly auction by RBI. It is trading a tad lower at 7.11% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
29-06-2023 30-06-2023 change in bps US 3.84 3.84 0 UK 4.38 4.39 1 Germany 2.42 2.39 (2) Japan 0.39 0.40 1 China 2.66 2.64 (2) India 7.06 7.12 6 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
29-06-2023 30-06-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.73 6.71 (2) Tbill-182 days 6.86 6.82 (4) Tbill-364 days 6.86 6.87 1 G-Sec 2Y 6.99 7.02 3 India OIS-2M 6.61 6.63 2 India OIS-9M 6.68 6.74 6 SONIA int rate benchmark 4.93 4.93 0 US SOFR 5.06 5.06 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 29-06-2023 30-06-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (0.3) (1.3) (1.0) Reverse repo 0.2 0 (0.2) Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
27-06-2023 28-06-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (3.0) 3,247.4 3,250.5 Debt (226.4) 1,442.4 1,668.7 Equity 223.4 1,805.1 1,581.7 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 596.2 (817.9) (1,414.0) Debt 683.3 (1,359.9) (2,043.3) Equity (87.2) 542.1 629.3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Mutual funds data as of 12th and 13th Jun 2023
Crude prices rose by 0.8% supported by signs of US economy strengthening.
Fig 7 – Commodities
29-06-2023 30-06-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 74.3 74.9 0.8 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,908.2 1,919.4 0.6 Copper (US$/ MT) 8,177.0 8,322.1 1.8 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,336.0 2,382.3 2.0 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,160.0 2,151.5 (0.4) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
-
04 July 2023
Fears of slowdown in US economy were back yet again after ISM manufacturing PMI (46 from 46.9 in May’23) reading came in at the same level as was last seen during Covid-19 wave. Thus, further adding to the risk of recession. India’s manufacturing PMI eased marginally to 57.8 in Jun’23 form 58.7 in May’23, though it remained in the expansionary mode. Led by strong domestic and international demand, new orders and output rose sharply. Furthermore, future business activity which climbed to its highest level added to the optimism. Separately, Japanese Yen currently has been under intervention alert with Japan’s Finance Minister warning against any excessive selling. Investors will track upcoming Fed minutes and June payrolls report scheduled later this week.
Barring Dow Jones (flat) and FTSE (lower), other global indices closed higher. Investors remained uncertain over the next move by global Central Banks. Fed minutes scheduled to release later this week might offer some clarity on the same. Hang Seng surged the most followed by Nikkei. Sensex too climbed up, led by strong gains in oil & gas and metal stocks. It is trading further higher today, while other Asian stocks are trading lower.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
30-06-2023 03-07-2023 % change Dow Jones 34,408 34,418 0 S & P 500 4,450 4,456 0.1 FTSE 7,532 7,527 (0.1) Nikkei 33,189 33,753 1.7 Hang Seng 18,916 19,307 2.1 Shanghai Comp 3,202 3,244 1.3 Sensex 64,719 65,205 0.8 Nifty 19,189 19,323 0.7 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies closed mixed. While EUR ended flat, GBP and JPY fell, and INR and CNY rose. DXY was up by 0.1% as ISM data showed that prices weakened more than anticipated in Jun’23. JPY fell by 0.3% as government intervened to prevent any steeper declines. Today, INR is trading higher today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
30-06-2023 03-07-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0909 1.0912 0 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2703 1.2693 (0.1) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 144.31 144.68 (0.3) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.04 81.96 0.1 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.2537 7.2468 0.1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields in Asia closed flat, while they inched up in US and Europe. UK’s 2 yield rose more than 10Y, as investors are expecting continued rate hikes by BoE to reach peak rate of 6% and decreased probability of rate cuts this year. The yield curve remains inverted since May’23. India’s 10Y yield closed unchanged at 7.12%, and is trading flat even today, awaiting fresh global cues.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
30-06-2023 03-07-2023 change in bps US 3.84 3.85 2 UK 4.39 4.44 5 Germany 2.39 2.44 4 Japan 0.40 0.41 0 China 2.64 2.65 0 India 7.12 7.12 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
30-06-2023 03-07-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.71 6.69 (2) Tbill-182 days 6.82 6.81 (1) Tbill-364 days 6.87 6.82 (5) G-Sec 2Y 7.02 7.02 0 India OIS-2M 6.63 6.61 (2) India OIS-9M 6.74 6.74 0 SONIA int rate benchmark 4.93 4.93 0 US SOFR 5.06 5.09 3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 30-06-2023 03-07-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (1.3) (2.2) (0.9) Reverse repo 0.2 0.1 0.1 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
28-06-2023 30-06-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 3,247.4 1,550.4 (1,697.0) Debt 1,442.4 106.1 (1,336.3) Equity 1,805.1 1,444.3 (360.8) Mutual funds (Rs cr) 596.2 (817.9) (1,414.0) Debt 683.3 (1,359.9) (2,043.3) Equity (87.2) 542.1 629.3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Mutual funds data as of 23 Jun and 26 Jun 2023
Crude prices slipped by 0.3% amidst concerns around subdued demand.
Fig 7 – Commodities
30-06-2023 03-07-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 74.9 74.7 (0.3) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,919.4 1,921.6 0.1 Copper (US$/ MT) 8,322.1 8,397.0 0.9 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,382.3 2,355.3 (1.1) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,151.5 2,157.5 0.3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
-
05 July 2023
Mrkets will await Fed’s minutes scheduled to release later today for more clarity on future path of rate hike. According to CME FEDWATCH, there is a 90% likelihood of a rate hike (25bps) to 5.5% in the Jul’23 meet. On global growth, Japan’s services PMI remained in the expansion zone, despite tad moderation (54 vs 55.9 in May’23) highlighting strong demand conditions. Furthermore, China’s CAIXIN services activity (53.9 vs 57.1 in May) in line with official PMI, softened on the back of weakened demand, with both new business activity and new orders expanding at a much slower pace in Jun’23. Separately, Australia’s Central Bank (RBA) maintained status quo, though they warned, more tightening might be required.
Global indices ended mixed amidst thin trading and ongoing uncertainty around interest rate decisions byglobal central Banks. Investors will turn their focus towards Fed minutes and US payrolls report for further guidance. Hang Seng gained the most. The gains in Sensexwere supported by rally in IT and banking stocks. It opened flat today, while other Asian stocks are trading lower.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
03-07-2023 04-07-2023 % change Dow Jones 34,408 34,418 0 S & P 500 4,450 4,456 0.1 FTSE 7,527 7,520 (0.1) Nikkei 33,753 33,423 (1.0) Hang Seng 19,307 19,416 0.6 Shanghai Comp 3,244 3,245 0 Sensex 65,205 65,479 0.4 Nifty 19,323 19,389 0.3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Barring EUR and INR (lower), other global currencies closed higher. CNYand GBP gained the most. Investors await Fed minutes for guidance on future rate trajectory. Currently there are 90% chances of a 25bps hike in Jul’23. INR fell by 0.1% as oil prices inched up. It is trading further weaker today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
03-07-2023 04-07-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0912 1.0879 (0.3) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2693 1.2713 0.2 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 144.68 144.47 0.1 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 81.96 82.02 (0.1) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.2468 7.2162 0.4 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields closed mixed. While 10Y yields in UK and Japan fell, in Germany it inched up. ECB officials have maintained their stance on tight monetary policy conditions. In UK, weakening macro data has revived fears of recession risks. India’s 10Y yield closed unchanged at 7.12%, and is trading a tad lower at 7.11% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
03-07-2023 04-07-2023 change in bps US 3.84 3.85 2 UK 4.44 4.42 (2) Germany 2.44 2.45 2 Japan 0.41 0.39 (2) China 2.65 2.65 0 India 7.12 7.12 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
03-07-2023 04-07-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 day s 6.69 6.68 (1) Tbill-182 day s 6.81 6.80 (1) Tbill-364 day s 6.82 6.82 0 G-Sec 2Y 7.02 7.04 2 India OIS-2M 6.61 6.60 (1) India OIS-9M 6.74 6.74 0 SONIA int rate benchmark 4.93 4.93 0 US SOFR 5.06 5.09 3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 03-07-2023 04-07-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (2.2) (2.3) (0.1) Rev erse repo 0.1 0.8 0.7 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
30-06-2023 03-07-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 1,550.4 246.2 (1,304.2) Debt 106.1 (53.8) (159.9) Equity 1,444.3 300.1 (1,144.3) Mutual funds (Rs cr) (1,948.4) 5,322.2 7,270.6 Debt (3,395.6) 4,673.3 8,068.9 Equity 1,447.3 649.0 (798.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Mutual funds data as of 23 Jun and 26 Jun 2023
Crude prices rose by 2.1%, as major oil producers (Saudi Arabia and Russia) will begin their voluntary production cuts from Aug’23.
Fig 7 – Commodities
03-07-2023 04-07-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 74.7 76.3 2.1 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,921.6 1,925.5 0.2 Copper (US$/ MT) 8,397.0 8,346.0 (0.6) Zinc (US$/MT) 2,355.3 2,403.0 2.0 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,157.5 2,167.5 0.5 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
-
06 July 2023
Fed in the minutes reiterated more rate hikes are in the offing as it continues to remain data dependent. They also noted the economy might ‘avoid downturn most likely’ and they see odds improving of soft landing. According to recently released macro data, there have been fears of economic slowdown, with new orders from US rising at much slower pace. Additionally, China’s services activity also disappointed. Focus will now shift towards US jobs report, offering more clarity on labour market. News of China possibly restricting exports on chips, widely used in semiconductor industry added to geo-political tensions between US and China.
Global indices largely ended lower. Investors monitored Fed minutes which highlighted they will continue with rate hike, albeit at a much slower pace. Asian indices ended lower with China’s services activity (private) expanded at the slowest pace in over 5-months. Sensex too ended in red, led by subdued global cues and losses in banking stocks. However, it is trading higher today, while other Asian stocks are trading lower.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
04-07-2023 05-07-2023 % change Dow Jones 34,418 34,289 (0.4) S & P 500 4,456 4,447 (0.2) FTSE 7,520 7,442 (1.0) Nikkei 33,423 33,339 (0.3) Hang Seng 19,416 19,110 (1.6) Shanghai Comp 3,245 3,223 (0.7) Sensex 65,479 65,446 (0.1) Nifty 19,389 19,399 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Major global currencies closed lower. DXY rose by 0.3%, as Fed minutes suggest that more rate hikes are in the offing. 16 out of 18 FOMC members are of the view that at least 1 more hike is necessary and 12 are of the view 2 or more hikes might be needed. INR fell by 0.2%, as oil prices continued to inch up. It is trading further weaker today, in line with other Asian currencies
Fig 2 – Currencies
04-07-2023 05-07-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0879 1.0854 (0.2) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2713 1.2704 (0.1) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 144.47 144.66 (0.1) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.02 82.22 (0.2) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.2162 7.2505 (0.5) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except India and China (lower), other global yields closed higher. US and UK 10Y yields rose the most (+8bps each). Fed’s intent to maintain a tight vigil on inflation and its resolve to increase rates to cool down the economy, pushed yields up. India’s 10Y was down by 1bps to 7.11%. However, following global cues, it is trading higher today at 7.13%.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
04-07-2023 05-07-2023 change in bps US 3.85 3.93 8 UK 4.42 4.49 8 Germany 2.45 2.48 3 Japan 0.39 0.39 1 China 2.65 2.64 (1) India 7.12 7.11 (1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
04-07-2023 05-07-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.68 6.73 5 Tbill-182 days 6.80 6.81 1 Tbill-364 days 6.82 6.82 0 G-Sec 2Y 7.04 7.03 (1) India OIS-2M 6.60 6.60 0 India OIS-9M 6.74 6.74 0 SONIA int rate benchmark 4.93 4.93 0 US SOFR 5.09 5.06 (3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 04-07-2023 05-07-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (2.3) (2.4) (0.1) Reverse repo 0.8 0.8 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
03-07-2023 04-07-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 246.2 313.5 67.3 Debt (53.8) 6.6 60.5 Equity 300.1 306.9 6.8 Mutual funds (Rs cr) (1,948.4) 5,322.2 7,270.6 Debt (3,395.6) 4,673.3 8,068.9 Equity 1,447.3 649.0 (798.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Mutual funds data as of 23 Jun and 26 Jun 2023
Crude prices rose further by 0.5%, supported by extension of voluntary production cuts by OPEC+ members, and awaiting data on US crude stockpiles.
Fig 7 – Commodities
04-07-2023 05-07-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 76.3 76.7 0.5 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,925.5 1,915.3 (0.5) Copper (US$/ MT) 8,346.0 8,304.0 (0.5) Zinc (US$/MT) 2,403.0 2,351.0 (2.2) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,167.5 2,142.5 (1.2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
-
07 July 2023
Following the release of Fed minutes, recent macro data (Private payrolls, ISM services PMI at 53.9 from 50.3) brought back the likelihood of more rate hikes. The private payrolls climbed much higher than anticipated to 497K from 267K in May. Fed’s Dallas President commented ‘more restrictive policy’ will continue, given the strong labour market and inflation outlook remaining above target. Amidst the rate hike fears, global indices ended in red, while 10Y yields climbed higher as the focus would return towards battling elevated inflation. This comes ahead of the US non- farm payrolls data which is expected to surprise positively.
Except Sensex, other global indices largely ended lower. Sharp sell-off in the market was triggered by early signs of strong labour market (surge in private payroll data), which stoked fears of aggressive rate tightening by Fed. Amongst other indices, Hang Seng (3%) declined the most followed by FTSE (2.2%). On the other hand, Sensex ended in green, led by strong gains in real estate and oil & gas stocks. However, it is trading lower today, in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
05-07-2023
06-07-2023
% change
Dow Jones
34,289
33,922
(1.1)
S & P 500
4,447
4,412
(0.8)
FTSE
7,442
7,281
(2.2)
Nikkei
33,339
32,773
(1.7)
Hang Seng
19,110
18,533
(3.0)
Shanghai Comp
3,223
3,206
(0.5)
Sensex
65,446
65,786
0.5
Nifty
19,399
19,497
0.5
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Apart from INR (lower) and CNY (flat), other global currencies closed higher against the dollar. DXY fell by 0.2%, despite macro data supporting Fed’s hawkish stance. ECB President’s speech reaffirming need for tighter monetary policy, lifted EUR. INR fell by 0.3%, even as oil prices dipped. It is trading further lower today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
05-07-2023
06-07-2023
% change
EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD)
1.0854
1.0889
0.3
GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD)
1.2704
1.2740
0.3
USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD)
144.66
144.07
0.4
USD/INR (INR / 1 USD)
82.22
82.51
(0.3)
USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD)
7.2505
7.2488
0
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Barring China (flat), other global yields closed higher. 10Y yields in UK (+17bps), Germany (+15bps) and US (+10bps) rose sharply. Stronger than anticipated macro data from the US (ADP employment, ISM services PMI), has increased bets on the possibility of 2nd rate hike by Fed. BoE is also expected to aggressively hike rates to peak at 6.5% (earlier 6.25%). India’s 10Y rose by 4bps to 7.15%, following global cues. It is trading further higher today at 7.16%.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
05-07-2023
06-07-2023
change in bps
US
3.93
4.03
10
UK
4.49
4.66
17
Germany
2.48
2.63
15
Japan
0.39
0.41
2
China
2.64
2.64
0
India
7.11
7.15
4
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
05-07-2023
06-07-2023
change in bps
Tbill-91 days
6.73
6.72
(1)
Tbill-182 days
6.81
6.82
1
Tbill-364 days
6.82
6.82
0
G-Sec 2Y
7.04
7.03
(1)
India OIS-2M
6.60
6.61
1
India OIS-9M
6.74
6.77
3
SONIA int rate benchmark
4.93
4.93
0
US SOFR
5.06
5.06
0
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn
05-07-2023
06-07-2023
change (Rs tn)
Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit)
(2.4)
(2.4)
0
Reverse repo
0.8
1.0
0.2
Repo
0
0
0
Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
04-07-2023
05-07-2023
change (US$ mn/Rs
cr)
FII (US$ mn)
313.5
321.2
7.7
Debt
6.6
42.6
35.9
Equity
306.9
278.7
(28.2)
Mutual funds (Rs cr)
5,322.2
878.2
(4,444.0)
Debt
4,673.3
1,206.2
(3,467.0)
Equity
649.0
(328.0)
(977.0)
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Mutual funds data as of 23 Jun and 26 Jun 2023
Crude prices declined by 0.2%, as rate hike concerns could dampen demand.
Fig 7 – Commodities
05-07-2023
06-07-2023
% change
Brent crude (US$/bbl)
76.7
76.5
(0.2)
Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce)
1,915.3
1,910.9
(0.2)
Copper (US$/ MT)
8,304.0
8,246.0
(0.7)
Zinc (US$/MT)
2,351.0
2,356.8
0.2
Aluminium (US$/MT)
2,142.5
2,129.0
(0.6)
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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