Economic Weekly Wrap
22 May 2023 - 26 May 2023
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22 May 2023
Chairman highlighted that future policy decisions will be on a “meeting to meeting” basis. Impact of lagged transmission of previous rate hikes and the effect of banking stress on credit will be key. The remarks were perceived as dovish by the markets and as a result, the probability of a rate hike in Jun’23 diminished post the remarks. Also supporting this, talks over US debt ceiling paused, raising worries of a possible default which will further dent economic prospects. Elsewhere, UK’s GfK consumer confidence index showed marked improvement. In Japan, core CPI accelerated further to 3.4% in Apr’23 from 3.1% in Mar’23. In India, RBI’s more than expected surplus transfer of Rs 87,416 should comfort domestic yields.
Global indices closed mixed. Investors tracked Fed Chair’s comments, hinting at a pause to judge the impact of lagged transmission. Apart from this, uneven recovery in China and US debt ceiling talks, also impacted sentiments. Hang Seng fell the most by 1.4%, while Nikkei rose by 0.8%. Sensex rose by 0.5%, led by technology stocks. It is trading higher today, in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
18-05-2023 19-05-2023 % change Dow Jones 33,536 33,427 (0.3) S & P 500 4,198 4,192 (0.1) FTSE 7,742 7,757 0.2 Nikkei 30,574 30,808 0.8 Hang Seng 19,727 19,451 (1.4) Shanghai Comp 3,297 3,284 (0.4) Sensex 61,432 61,730 0.5 Nifty 18,130 18,203 0.4 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except INR, other global currencies ended stronger. DXY fell by 0.3% as the Fed Chair hinted at a pause in Jun’23 policy meet. Asian currencies such as JPY and CNY, gained the most. However, INR continued to depreciate. It is trading weaker today, while other Asian currencies are trading mostly stronger.
Fig 2 – Currencies
18-05-2023 19-05-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0770 1.0805 0.3 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2409 1.2445 0.3 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 138.71 137.98 0.5 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.59 82.67 (0.1) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.0375 7.0120 0.4 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields closed mixed. UK’s 10Y yield rose by 4bps as GfK consumer confidence index showed improvement in May’23. Germany’s 10Y yield fell by 2bps as PPI moderated on YoY basis. India’s 10Y yield rose by 2bps, eyeing auction results. It is trading at 6.98% today, following RBI’s decision to transfer a surplus of Rs 87,416 crore to the government.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
18-05-2023 19-05-2023 change in bps US 3.65 3.67 3 UK 3.96 4.00 4 Germany 2.45 2.43 (2) Japan 0.38 0.40 2 China 2.72 2.72 0 India 6.99 7.01 2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
18-05-2023 19-05-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.80 6.75 (5) Tbill-182 days 6.94 6.91 (3) Tbill-364 days 6.93 6.90 (3) G-Sec 2Y 6.85 6.83 (2) India OIS-2M 6.60 6.57 (3) India OIS-9M 6.57 6.57 0 SONIA int rate benchmark 4.43 4.43 0 US SOFR 5.05 5.05 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 18-05-2023 19-05-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (0.9) (0.5) 0.4 Reverse repo 0.1 0 (0.1) Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
17-05-2023 18-05-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 280.4 198.2 (82.2) Debt 182.5 (20.6) (203.2) Equity 97.8 218.8 121.0 Mutual funds (Rs cr) (147.1) (1,645.4) (1,498.3) Debt (771.1) (1,032.6) (261.4) Equity 624.0 (612.8) (1,236.9) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Mutual funds data as of 8 May 2023 and 9 May 2023
Crude prices fell by 0.4% amidst increasing risks of a default as US debt ceiling talks stalled.
Fig 7 – Commodities
18-05-2023 19-05-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 75.9 75.6 (0.4) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,957.6 1,977.8 1.0 Copper (US$/ MT) 8,128.5 8,201.0 0.9 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,450.0 2,476.5 1.1 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,283.5 2,283.5 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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23 May 2023
Comments from Fed officials have raised the possibility of higher US rates. FOMC members including Minneapolis Fed President and St. Louis Fed President batted for more rate hikes, with the former suggesting rate to go “north of 6%”. On the other hand, San Francisco Fed President suggested that the Jun’23 policy decision would be based on incoming data. While markets assess the future direction of rates, US debt ceiling talks also remain in focus. Elsewhere, PBOC kept its 1Y and 5Y LPR unchanged. In Japan, flash manufacturing PMI rose to 50.8 in May’23, entering the expansionary zone for the first time in 7-months (49.5 in Apr’23). Services PMI too improved to 56.3 from 55.4 in Apr’23.
Except US, global indices ended higher. Investors monitored the debt talks which ended without a deal. Apart from this, elections in Greece and US President hinting at improving relations with Beijing supported market sentiments. Hang Seng rose the most, supported by tech stocks. Sensex rose by 0.4%, led by tech and oil and gas stocks. It is trading further higher today, while Asian stocks are trading mixed.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
19-05-2023 22-05-2023 % change Dow Jones 33,427 33,287 (0.4) S & P 500 4,192 4,193 0 FTSE 7,757 7,771 0.2 Nikkei 30,808 31,087 0.9 Hang Seng 19,451 19,678 1.2 Shanghai Comp 3,284 3,296 0.4 Sensex 61,730 61,964 0.4 Nifty 18,203 18,314 0.6 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except EUR, other global currencies declined. Investors assessed Fed’s future rate trajectory amidst comments from Fed officials. Debt ceiling talks also kept investors on edge. CNY depreciated despite PBOC’s comments to curb fluctuation in the exchange rate. INR depreciated to a near 3 month low. It is trading flat today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
19-05-2023 22-05-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0805 1.0813 0.1 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2445 1.2437 (0.1) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 137.98 138.60 (0.4) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.67 82.83 (0.2) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.0120 7.0320 (0.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields closed mixed. UK’s 10Y yield rose the most by 7bps as house prices firmed up signalling improving demand. Even US 10Y yield rose by 4bps amidst hawkish comments from two Fed officials (St Louis and Minneapolis Fed President). India’s 10Y yield fell by 2bps as the decision to withdraw Rs 2,000 notes is expected to gradually boost liquidity. It is trading at 7% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
19-05-2023 22-05-2023 change in bps US 3.67 3.71 4 UK 4.00 4.06 7 Germany 2.43 2.46 3 Japan 0.40 0.39 (1) China 2.72 2.71 (1) India 7.01 6.99 (2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
19-05-2023 22-05-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.80 6.75 (5) Tbill-182 days 6.94 6.91 (3) Tbill-364 days 6.93 6.90 (3) G-Sec 2Y 6.85 6.83 (2) India OIS-2M 6.60 6.57 (3) India OIS-9M 6.57 6.57 0 SONIA int rate benchmark 4.43 4.43 0 US SOFR 5.05 5.05 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 19-05-2023 22-05-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (0.5) (0.5) 0 Reverse repo 0 0.5 0.5 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
18-05-2023 19-05-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 198.2 54.1 (144.1) Debt (20.6) (36.9) (16.3) Equity 218.8 91.0 (127.8) Mutual funds (Rs cr) (147.1) (1,645.4) (1,498.3) Debt (771.1) (1,032.6) (261.4) Equity 624.0 (612.8) (1,236.9) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Mutual funds data as of 11 May 2023 and 12 May 2023
Global oil prices inched up amidst expectation of a demand recovery in H2.
Fig 7 – Commodities
19-05-2023 22-05-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 75.6 76.0 0.5 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,977.8 1,971.9 (0.3) Copper (US$/ MT) 8,201.0 8,061.5 (1.7) Zinc (US$/MT) 2,476.5 2,426.0 (2.0) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,283.5 2,263.5 (0.9) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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24 May 2023
US macro data pointed to continued resilience in the economy. US new home sales rose by 4.1% to a 13-month high, pointing to continued revival in the housing sector. Flash US composite PMI for May’23 rose to more than 1-year high at 54.5 from 53.4 in Apr’23, led by the services sector. Manufacturing activity however, remained muted. However, with insufficient progress in US debt ceiling talks, investor sentiment remained jittery. Elsewhere, flash composite PMIs in both the Eurozone (3-month low at 53.3 vs. 54.1) and UK (2-month low at 53.9 vs. 54.9) signalled a slowdown in economic activity. Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised policy rates by another 25bps to a 14-year high of 5.5%, and signalled that rates are likely to remain elevated till 2024.
Except India, global indices closed lower. Investors remained cautious tracking comments from former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke and his cautionary call towards inflation. Apart from this, impasse in debt talks, moderation in flash PMI reading in Germany and UK, also impacted sentiments. Shanghai Comp fell the most, followed by Hang Seng and US stocks. Sensex rose by 0.2%, led by oil and gas stocks. It is trading lower today, in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
22-05-2023 23-05-2023 % change Dow Jones 33,287 33,056 (0.7) S & P 500 4,193 4,146 (1.1) FTSE 7,771 7,763 (0.1) Nikkei 31,087 30,958 (0.4) Hang Seng 19,678 19,431 (1.3) Shanghai Comp 3,296 3,246 (1.5) Sensex 61,964 61,982 0 Nifty 18,314 18,348 0.2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except EUR, other global currencies declined. Investors assessed Fed’s future rate trajectory amidst comments from Fed officials. Debt ceiling talks also kept investors on edge. CNY depreciated despite PBOC’s comments to curb fluctuation in the exchange rate. INR depreciated to a near 3 month low. It is trading flat today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
22-05-2023 23-05-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0813 1.0770 (0.4) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2437 1.2413 (0.2) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 138.60 138.59 0 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.83 82.81 0 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.0320 7.0560 (0.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields closed mixed. US 10Y yield fell by 2bps as manufacturing data showed laggard economic activity. On the other hand, UK’s 10Y yield rose by 9bps as public sector borrowing rose in Apr’23 on account of social security and interest payments. India’s 10Y yield rose by 3bps, tracking rise in OIS rates. It is trading at 7.02% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
22-05-2023 23-05-2023 change in bps US 3.71 3.69 (2) UK 4.06 4.16 9 Germany 2.46 2.47 1 Japan 0.39 0.40 1 China 2.71 2.70 (1) India 6.99 7.01 3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
22-05-2023 23-05-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.67 6.70 3 Tbill-182 days 6.82 6.85 3 Tbill-364 days 6.83 6.86 3 G-Sec 2Y 6.83 6.78 (6) India OIS-2M 6.53 6.54 1 India OIS-9M 6.53 6.57 4 SONIA int rate benchmark 4.43 4.43 0 US SOFR 5.05 5.05 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 22-05-2023 23-05-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (0.5) (0.4) 0.1 Reverse repo 0.5 0.5 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
19-05-2023 22-05-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 54.1 188.0 133.9 Debt (36.9) 32.2 69.2 Equity 91.0 155.8 64.7 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 1,718.3 1,562.6 (155.7) Debt 938.6 1,393.8 455.2 Equity 779.8 168.9 (610.9) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Mutual funds data as of 11 May 2023 and 12 May 2023
Global oil prices rose by 1.1%, tracking rise in US gasoline futures.
Fig 7 – Commodities
22-05-2023 23-05-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 76.0 76.8 1.1 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,971.9 1,975.2 0.2 Copper (US$/ MT) 8,061.5 8,035.7 (0.3) Zinc (US$/MT) 2,426.0 2,367.5 (2.4) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,263.5 2,227.0 (1.6) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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25 May 2023
FOMC minutes reflected that members were split on further course of policy. While a number of members believed that further rate increases may not be needed, some believed that persistently high inflation may require further policy tightening. Members generally agreed that risks to inflation remained tilted to the upside. On the other hand, tightening credit conditions due to bank failures remained a key risk to growth. Impasse over US debt ceiling talks continued, which weighed on investor sentiments. Elsewhere, CPI inflation in UK moderated less than expected to 8.7% (est. 8.2%) from 10.1% in Mar’23, as core inflation rose to a 31-year high. In Germany, Ifo’s business climate index dipped to 91.7 in May’23 from 93.0 in Apr’23, led by a decline in future expectations.
Global indices closed lower. Investors remained cautious tracking Fed minutes which had an uncertain tone. Governor Waller in his recent statement also cautioned against inflation. Elsewhere, Fitch’s concern about progress in debt talks in the US and its impact on country’s rating, also influenced sentiments. FTSE and Hang Seng fell the most. Sensex fell by 0.3%, led by a fall in metal stocks. It is trading further lower today, while Asian stocks are trading mixed.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
23-05-2023 24-05-2023 % change Dow Jones 33,056 32,800 (0.8) S & P 500 4,146 4,115 (0.7) FTSE 7,763 7,627 (1.7) Nikkei 30,958 30,683 (0.9) Hang Seng 19,431 19,116 (1.6) Shanghai Comp 3,246 3,205 (1.3) Sensex 61,982 61,774 (0.3) Nifty 18,348 18,285 (0.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except INR, other global currencies fell against the dollar. DXY rose further by 0.4% to a near 2-month high, amidst diminishing hopes of a rate cut by Fed. Safe-haven demand also pushed dollar higher. GBP slipped by 0.4% even as inflation in UK was higher than expected. INR appreciated by 0.2%. It is trading weaker today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
23-05-2023 24-05-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0770 1.0750 (0.2) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2413 1.2365 (0.4) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 138.59 139.47 (0.6) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.81 82.67 0.2 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.0560 7.0609 (0.1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except Germany (stable) and India (lower), global yields closed higher. UK’s 10Y yield rose by 6bps as CPI reading firmed up in Apr’23. US 10Y yield also rose by 5bps amidst risks of debt default. India’s 10Y yield fell by 2bps on news reports of corporate buying. It is trading at 7.0% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
23-05-2023 24-05-2023 change in bps US 3.69 3.74 5 UK 4.16 4.21 6 Germany 2.47 2.47 0 Japan 0.40 0.41 1 China 2.70 2.71 1 India 7.01 6.99 (2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
23-05-2023 24-05-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.70 6.74 4 Tbill-182 days 6.85 6.89 4 Tbill-364 days 6.86 6.87 1 G-Sec 2Y 6.83 6.78 (6) India OIS-2M 6.54 6.55 1 India OIS-9M 6.57 6.56 (1) SONIA int rate benchmark 4.43 4.43 0 US SOFR 5.05 5.05 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 23-05-2023 24-05-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (0.4) (0.5) (0.1) Reverse repo 0.5 0.5 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
22-05-2023 23-05-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 188.0 54.1 (133.9) Debt 32.2 15.5 (16.7) Equity 155.8 38.6 (117.2) Mutual funds (Rs cr) 1,718.3 1,562.6 (155.7) Debt 938.6 1,393.8 455.2 Equity 779.8 168.9 (610.9) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Mutual funds data as of 11 May 2023 and 12 May 2023
Global oil prices rose by 2% as US stockpiles fell unexpectedly.
Fig 7 – Commodities
23-05-2023 24-05-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 76.8 78.4 2.0 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,975.2 1,957.2 (0.9) Copper (US$/ MT) 8,035.7 7,851.8 (2.3) Zinc (US$/MT) 2,367.5 2,305.3 (2.6) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,227.0 2,205.0 (1.0) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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26 May 2023
Robust data from US has lent support to still nascent probability of a rate hike in Jun’23. Jobless claims rose by only 4,000 to 229,000 (est. 245,000), suggesting that labour market strength remains intact. GDP growth for Q1CY23 was revised upwards to 1.3% vs. 1.1% estimated earlier. Reports also suggested possible progress in US debt talks, with hopes that a deal might be reached soon. However, with the deadline approaching fast, investor sentiments remain jittery. In Germany, GDP growth declined by 0.3% in Q1 (earlier estimate 0%), following a drop of 0.5% in Q4CY22, thus pushing it into a technical recession. In Asia, inflation in Tokyo (proxy for Japan) eased but remained above BoJ’s target of 2%.
Global indices closed mixed. Investors monitored progress on debt talks. Apart from this, relatively buoyant macro print in the US (GDP and lower jobless claims) also impacted sentiments. In Germany, the final estimate of Q1GDP showed negative growth, while in UK retail sales number disappointed. Hang Seng fell the most, while S&P 500 inched up. Sensex rose by 0.2%, led by real estate stocks. It is trading higher today, while Asian stocks are trading mixed.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
24-05-2023 25-05-2023 % change Dow Jones 32,800 32,765 (0.1) S & P 500 4,115 4,151 0.9 FTSE 7,627 7,571 (0.7) Nikkei 30,683 30,801 0.4 Hang Seng 19,116 18,747 (1.9) Shanghai Comp 3,205 3,201 (0.1) Sensex 61,774 61,873 0.2 Nifty 18,285 18,321 0.2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies declined as safe-haven demand and strong macro data from the US (less than expected increase in jobless claims and upward revision in Q1CY23 GDP), pushed DXY higher. EUR fell by 0.2% as German economy slipped into recession. INR depreciated by 0.1%, following global cues. However, it is trading stronger today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
24-05-2023 25-05-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0750 1.0725 (0.2) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2365 1.2321 (0.4) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 139.47 140.06 (0.4) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.67 82.74 (0.1) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.0609 7.0792 (0.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except China (stable), global yields closed higher. UK’s 10Y yield rose the most by 16bps as BoE’s official Jonathan Haskel spoke of sticky inflation and hinted that further increase in policy rate cannot be ruled out. US 10Y yield also rose by 5bps supported by better macro print. India’s 10Y yield rose by 2bps. It is trading at 7.02% today, ahead of auction results.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
24-05-2023 25-05-2023 change in bps US 3.74 3.82 8 UK 4.21 4.37 16 Germany 2.47 2.52 5 Japan 0.41 0.43 1 China 2.71 2.71 0 India 6.99 7.01 2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
24-05-2023 25-05-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.74 6.74 0 Tbill-182 days 6.89 6.85 (4) Tbill-364 days 6.87 6.88 1 G-Sec 2Y 6.83 6.78 (6) India OIS-2M 6.55 6.55 0 India OIS-9M 6.56 6.57 1 SONIA int rate benchmark 4.43 4.43 0 US SOFR 5.05 5.05 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 24-05-2023 25-05-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (0.5) (0.8) (0.3) Reverse repo 0.5 0.5 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
23-05-2023 24-05-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 54.1 215.6 161.5 Debt 15.5 34.5 19.0 Equity 38.6 181.1 142.5 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 1,718.3 1,562.6 (155.7) Debt 938.6 1,393.8 455.2 Equity 779.8 168.9 (610.9) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Mutual funds data as of 11 May 2023 and 12 May 2023
Oil prices fell amidst conflicting signals from OPEC+ and Russia on output cut.
Fig 7 – Commodities
24-05-2023 25-05-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 78.4 76.3 (2.7) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,957.2 1,941.4 (0.8) Copper (US$/ MT) 7,851.8 7,914.8 0.8 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,305.3 2,259.0 (2.0) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,205.0 2,231.0 1.2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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