Economic Weekly Wrap
15 May 2023 - 19 May 2023
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15 May 2023
Global markets await decision on raising US’ debt ceiling as the deadline approaches closer. Uncertainty around the verdict, along with stubborn CPI print (core) is keeping bond markets on the edge. Latest US Michigan consumer sentiment index shows that consumer confidence is also weakening (57.7 in May’23 versus est.: 63 and 63.5 in Apr’23). Survey also indicates that 1Y inflation outlook remains stubborn (4.5% versus est.: 4.4% and 4.6% in Apr’23) and 5-10Y inflation expectation also remains high (3.2% versus est.: 2.9% and 3% in Apr’23). In UK, data confirmed that GDP rose by 0.1% in Q1, and industrial production in Mar’23 (MoM) rebounded significantly (0.7% versus est.: 0.1% and -0.1% in Feb’23). In India, CPI eased to 4.7% in Apr’23 (in line with expectation), from 5.7% (Mar’23).
Global indices ended mixed led by concerns over US debt ceiling and subdued data print (US consumer sentiment dropped to 6-month low). On the other hand, FTSE ended in green. Sensex too climbed higher and rallied for the 3rd straight week aided by gains in auto and banking stocks. It is trading higher today while other Asian stocks are trading mixed.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
11-05-2023 12-05-2023 % change Dow Jones 33,310 33,301 0 S & P 500 4,131 4,124 (0.2) FTSE 7,731 7,755 0.3 Nikkei 29,127 29,388 0.9 Hang Seng 19,744 19,627 (0.6) Shanghai Comp 3,310 3,272 (1.1) Sensex 61,905 62,028 0.2 Nifty 18,297 18,315 0.1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies ended lower against the dollar. DXY strengthened by 0.6% (over 2-month high) with investors moving towards safe haven after weak US data. Investors are expecting rate cuts might be off the table. INR is trading weaker today while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
11-05-2023 12-05-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0916 1.0849 (0.6) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2511 1.2458 (0.4) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 134.53 135.70 (0.9) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.09 82.17 (0.1) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 6.9489 6.9591 (0.1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except in Asia (yields flat/lower), other global yields ended higher. 10Y yields in US (+8bps) and UK (+7bps) rose the most. Uncertainty around looming debt ceiling deadline in the US impacted investor sentiments. Further, UK’s better than expected industrial production data indicated that economy might not be slowing down as much as anticipated. Supported by drop in oil prices, India’s 10Y yield fell below 7% mark (6.99%), but is trading back at 7% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
11-05-2023 12-05-2023 change in bps US 3.38 3.46 8 UK 3.71 3.78 7 Germany 2.23 2.28 5 Japan 0.40 0.39 (1) China 2.70 2.71 0 India 7.02 6.99 (3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
11-05-2023 12-05-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.91 6.91 0 Tbill-182 days 7.00 6.99 (1) Tbill-364 days 6.98 6.99 1 G-Sec 2Y 6.89 6.89 0 India OIS-2M 6.68 6.66 (2) India OIS-9M 6.63 6.62 (1) SONIA int rate benchmark 4.18 4.43 25 US SOFR 5.06 5.05 (1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 11-05-2023 12-05-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (0.5) (0.5) 0 Reverse repo 0.1 0.1 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
10-05-2023 11-05-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 378.9 244.1 (134.9) Debt 99.1 123.4 24.3 Equity 279.9 120.7 (159.2) Mutual funds (Rs cr) (379.1) 411.0 790.0 Debt (524.3) 24.7 548.9 Equity 145.2 386.3 241.1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Mutual funds data as of 8 May 2023 and 9 May 2023
Crude oil prices dropped for the 3rd week in a row after economic concerns emerged in US and China.
Fig 7 – Commodities
11-05-2023 12-05-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 75.0 74.2 (1.1) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 2,015.1 2,010.8 (0.2) Copper (US$/ MT) 8,133.2 8,222.8 1.1 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,532.3 2,533.0 0 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,211.0 2,231.5 0.9 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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16 May 2023
As global markets await decision on raising debt ceiling by the US government to avoid default, risks of Fed hiking rates again in Jun’23 have also increased. Consumer sentiment survey for Apr’23 showed increase in inflation expectations. Elsewhere in Asia, China’s macro data shows slower pace of acceleration in growth. Industrial output in Apr’23 rose by 5.6% (est.: 10.7%) from 3.9% in Mar’23, while retail sales were up by 18.4% (est.: 22%) from 10.6%. FAI growth moderated on CYTD basis (Jan-Apr) to 4.7% (est.: 5.7%) from 5.1% in Q1. On MoM basis, retail sales and industrial output seem to have improved, signalling strength in economy.
Global indices ended in green. US indices closed higher shunning away concerns of slowdown in US economy with regional bank making most gains. Amongst other indices, Hang Seng rose the most followed by Shanghai Comp. Sensex followed global cues and closed higher with strong gains in real estate sector (+4.3%). Though, it is trading lower today while other Asian stocks are trading mixed.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
12-05-2023 15-05-2023 % change Dow Jones 33,301 33,349 0.1 S & P 500 4,124 4,136 0.3 FTSE 7,755 7,778 0.3 Nikkei 29,388 29,626 0.8 Hang Seng 19,627 19,971 1.8 Shanghai Comp 3,272 3,311 1.2 Sensex 62,028 62,346 0.5 Nifty 18,315 18,399 0.5 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Barring JPY and INR, other global currencies ended higher. After reaching an almost 3-month high, DXY retreated by 0.2% as investors slowly started moving away from the safe haven. GBP on the other hand, rallied and rose by 0.6%. INR depreciated amidst rise in oil prices. It is trading stronger today while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
12-05-2023 15-05-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0849 1.0874 0.2 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2458 1.2529 0.6 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 135.70 136.12 (0.3) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.17 82.30 (0.2) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 6.9591 6.9517 0.1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields ended higher. 10Y yields in US and UK (+4bps each) rose the most, followed by Germany. Increased risk of default by the US government and surprise uptick in inflation expectations in the US has revived fears of Fed rate hike in Jun’23. Following global cues, India’s 10Y too rose by 1bps to 7.01%, but is trading tad lower at 6.99% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
12-05-2023 15-05-2023 change in bps US 3.46 3.50 4 UK 3.78 3.82 4 Germany 2.28 2.31 3 Japan 0.39 0.41 2 China 2.71 2.72 2 India 6.99 7.01 1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
12-05-2023 15-05-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.91 6.87 (4) Tbill-182 days 6.99 6.96 (3) Tbill-364 days 6.99 6.98 (1) G-Sec 2Y 6.89 6.88 (1) India OIS-2M 6.66 6.66 0 India OIS-9M 6.62 6.60 (2) SONIA int rate benchmark 4.43 4.43 0 US SOFR 5.05 5.05 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 12-05-2023 15-05-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (0.5) (0.5) 0 Reverse repo 0.1 0.1 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
11-05-2023 12-05-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 244.07 52.99 (191) Debt 123.36 -140.21 (264) Equity 120.71 193.20 72 Mutual funds (Rs cr) (379.1) 411.0 790.0 Debt (524.3) 24.7 548.9 Equity 145.2 386.3 241.1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Mutual funds data as of 8 May 2023 and 9 May 2023
Crude oil prices rose by 1.4% to US$ 75/bbl, over concerns of tightening supplies (Wildfire in Canada), and expectation of output cuts by OPEC+ in H2.
Fig 7 – Commodities
12-05-2023 15-05-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 74.2 75.2 1.4 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 2,010.8 2,016.5 0.3 Copper (US$/ MT) 8,222.8 8,218.3 (0.1) Zinc (US$/MT) 2,533.0 2,517.5 (0.6) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,231.5 2,259.5 1.3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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17 May 2023
Latest data from the US shows that consumer demand still remains steady as retail sales rose by 0.4% (MoM) in Apr’23, up from (-) 0.7% in Mar’23. Excluding auto and gasoline, sales were up by 0.6%, higher than consensus estimate of 0.4%. Credit card spending data also shows steady increase. This has revived fears of elevated Fed policy rates. Separately, in Europe, economic activity seems to be losing momentum, with surprise uptick seen in UK’s jobless claims and 3rd consecutive decline seen in Germany’s ZEW economic sentiment index. On the contrary, IEA has forecasted 200k bpd increase in oil demand in CY23 to 102mn bpd. However, investors remain wary of these forecasts against China’s latest macro data.
Barring Nikkei (higher) and Hang Seng (flat), other global indices ended lower. US indices ended in red as debt ceiling stalemate impacted investor sentiments. Shanghai Comp was down owing to subdued data. FTSE slipped and was dragged down by mining stocks. Sensex was down owing to dip in auto and banking stocks. It is trading lower today while Asian stocks are trading mixed.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
15-05-2023 16-05-2023 % change Dow Jones 33,349 33,012 (1.0) S & P 500 4,136 4,110 (0.6) FTSE 7,778 7,751 (0.3) Nikkei 29,626 29,843 0.7 Hang Seng 19,971 19,978 0 Shanghai Comp 3,311 3,291 (0.6) Sensex 62,346 61,932 (0.7) Nifty 18,399 18,287 (0.6) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except INR, other global currencies ended lower. Dollar rebounded amidst retail sales data undershooting forecast but the underlying trend remained firm. Fed officials have given mixed signals in their commentary since last week over the direction of interest rates. INR appreciated supported by lower oil prices. It is trading weaker today while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
15-05-2023 16-05-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0874 1.0862 (0.1) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2529 1.2488 (0.3) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 136.12 136.39 (0.2) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.30 82.22 0.1 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 6.9517 6.9773 (0.4) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields ended mixed. 10Y yields in Germany (4bps) and US (3bps) rose the most, while they fell in Asia. US retail sales ticked up, albeit less than expected, indicating steadiness in domestic demand. In UK, jobless claims surprised on the upside, thus reducing inflation worries. India’s 10Y fell by 4bps supported by softer inflation print.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
15-05-2023 16-05-2023 change in bps US 3.50 3.53 3 UK 3.82 3.82 0 Germany 2.31 2.35 4 Japan 0.41 0.40 (1) China 2.72 2.71 (1) India 7.01 6.96 (4) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
15-05-2023 16-05-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.87 6.86 (1) Tbill-182 days 6.96 6.95 (1) Tbill-364 days 6.98 6.97 (1) G-Sec 2Y 6.88 6.88 0 India OIS-2M 6.66 6.62 (4) India OIS-9M 6.60 6.56 (4) SONIA int rate benchmark 4.43 4.43 0 US SOFR 5.05 5.06 1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 15-05-2023 16-05-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (0.5) (0.6) (0.1) Reverse repo 0.1 0.1 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
12-05-2023 15-05-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 53.0 185.3 132.3 Debt (140.2) (43.2) 97.1 Equity 193.2 228.5 35.3 Mutual funds (Rs cr) (147.1) (1,645.4) (1,498.3) Debt (771.1) (1,032.6) (261.4) Equity 624.0 (612.8) (1,236.9) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Mutual funds data as of 8 May 2023 and 9 May 2023
Crude oil prices fell by 0.4%, as weaker than expected macro data from China dented hopes of robust oil demand.
Fig 7 – Commodities
15-05-2023 16-05-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 75.2 74.9 (0.4) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 2,016.5 1,989.2 (1.4) Copper (US$/ MT) 8,218.3 8,074.2 (1.8) Zinc (US$/MT) 2,517.5 2,479.5 (1.5) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,259.5 2,259.5 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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18 May 2023
Us housing data indicates that real estate sector is showing some signs of improvement. While single-family (major contributor) housing starts rose by 1.6% (MoM) in line with market’s expectation of 1.4mn units, single-family permits were up by 3.1%. Overall housing starts rose by 2.2%. What also weighed on investor sentiments were hawkish comments by some Fed officials, signalling that rate cuts might be far and rates may have to remain elevated for long to bring inflation substantially down. In Asia, positive news came from Japan, as its Q1CY23 GDP growth came in at 1.6%, up from est.: 0.7% and (-) 0.1% decline in Q4CY22. Major support came from increase in private consumption (0.6% versus est.: 0.4%), and capex (0.9% versus est.: 0.4%). Oil prices got support from hopes of easing deadlock over US debt ceiling.
Global indices ended mixed. Investors continued to monitor developments around US debt ceiling. Gains in regional banks’ stocks pushed US indices higher. Nikkei zoomed past 30,000 mark for 1st time in over 20-months, boosted by strong Q1GDP data. Sensex slipped (0.6%) led by sharp losses in real estate and metal stocks. However, it is trading higher today in line with Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
16-05-2023 17-05-2023 % change Dow Jones 33,012 33,421 1.2 S & P 500 4,110 4,159 1.2 FTSE 7,751 7,723 (0.4) Nikkei 29,843 30,094 0.8 Hang Seng 19,978 19,561 (2.1) Shanghai Comp 3,291 3,284 (0.2) Sensex 61,932 61,561 (0.6) Nifty 18,287 18,182 (0.6) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Barring GBP (flat), other global currencies ended lower. Optimism around US debt ceiling pushed DXY higher (0.3%). Despite upbeat Q1GDP data, JPY slipped. CNY weakened as early signs of recovery post Covid-19 began to fade. INR depreciated by 0.2% amidst rise in oil prices. It is trading stronger today while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
16-05-2023 17-05-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0862 1.0840 (0.2) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2488 1.2487 0 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 136.39 137.68 (0.9) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.22 82.39 (0.2) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 6.9773 6.9965 (0.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields ended mixed. 10Y yields in US (3bps) and UK (2bps) rose the most, while they fell in Germany and Japan. Hawkish comments from some Fed officials stating that its premature to discuss rate cuts/further rate hikes, pushed yields up. India’s 10Y ended flat ahead of the weekly auction and awaiting RBI’s dividend announcement. It is trading flat even today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
16-05-2023 17-05-2023 change in bps US 3.53 3.56 3 UK 3.82 3.84 2 Germany 2.35 2.34 (2) Japan 0.40 0.37 (3) China 2.71 2.72 1 India 6.96 6.97 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
16-05-2023 17-05-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.86 6.84 (2) Tbill-182 days 6.95 6.94 (1) Tbill-364 days 6.97 6.95 (2) G-Sec 2Y 6.88 6.84 (4) India OIS-2M 6.62 6.61 (1) India OIS-9M 6.56 6.55 (1) SONIA int rate benchmark 4.43 4.43 0 US SOFR 5.06 5.05 (1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 16-05-2023 17-05-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (0.6) (0.8) (0.2) Reverse repo 0.1 0.1 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
15-05-2023 16-05-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 185.3 349.8 164.5 Debt (43.2) 141.3 184.4 Equity 228.5 208.6 (19.9) Mutual funds (Rs cr) (147.1) (1,645.4) (1,498.3) Debt (771.1) (1,032.6) (261.4) Equity 624.0 (612.8) (1,236.9) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Mutual funds data as of 8 May 2023 and 9 May 2023
Growing hopes around US debt ceiling pushed crude oil prices higher (2.7%).
Fig 7 – Commodities
16-05-2023 17-05-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 74.9 77.0 2.7 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,989.2 1,981.8 (0.4) Copper (US$/ MT) 8,074.2 8,262.8 2.3 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,479.5 2,518.8 1.6 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,259.5 2,296.5 1.6 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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19 May 2023
Us labour market data shows that initial jobless claims for the week ending 13 May, fell by 22k from the previous week to 242k (est.: 252k).This is the steepest decline since 20 Nov’21. Tight labour market has once again revived fears of rate hike in Jun’23, probability of which has now increased to 30%, versus 20% probability of rate cut which was being considered until last month. This has led to rise in yields and DXY. Possibility of reaching a deal over US debt ceiling, as indicated by US President and Speaker of the house, also supported markets. Elsewhere, global demand (led by China) continues to remain a key issue. Japan’s exports in Apr’23 have hit a 2-year low as they rose by 2.6% (est.: 3%) from 4.3% in Mar’23.
Barring Sensex, other global indices ended higher lifted by hopes riding over US debt ceiling deal. Nikkei continued to rally and surged by 1.6% registering a record high (highest level since 1990) as G-7 summit kicked off. Hang Seng and S&P 500 (9-month high) both rose by 0.9% each. Sensex continued to fall for the 3rd straight session with deep losses in power and real estate stocks. However, it is trading higher today in line with other Asian indices.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
17-05-2023 18-05-2023 % change Dow Jones 33,421 33,536 0.3 S & P 500 4,159 4,198 0.9 FTSE 7,723 7,742 0.2 Nikkei 30,094 30,574 1.6 Hang Seng 19,561 19,727 0.9 Shanghai Comp 3,284 3,297 0.4 Sensex 61,561 61,432 (0.2) Nifty 18,182 18,130 (0.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies ended lower. Dollar continued to strengthen (+0.7%) riding on the optimism wave around US debt ceiling. US yields climbed up, supporting demand for dollar. INR depreciated with more pain in the offering with rising DXY and with market pricing in 30% chance of rate hike in June. It is trading weaker today while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
17-05-2023 18-05-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0840 1.0770 (0.6) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2487 1.2409 (0.6) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 137.68 138.71 (0.7) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.39 82.59 (0.2) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 6.9965 7.0375 (0.6) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Barring China (flat), global yields ended higher. 10Y yields in UK, Germany and US rose the most. Commentary from Fed officials (Dallas Fed President) suggests that economic data point doesn’t warrant for a pause as yet. Probability of rate hike inJun’23 is now at 30%. Following global cues, India’s 10Y rose by 2bps to 6.99%, but is trading flat today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
17-05-2023 18-05-2023 change in bps US 3.56 3.65 8 UK 3.84 3.96 12 Germany 2.34 2.45 11 Japan 0.37 0.38 1 China 2.72 2.72 0 India 6.97 6.99 2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
17-05-2023 18-05-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.84 6.80 (4) Tbill-182 days 6.94 6.94 0 Tbill-364 days 6.95 6.93 (2) G-Sec 2Y 6.84 6.85 1 India OIS-2M 6.61 6.60 (1) India OIS-9M 6.55 6.57 2 SONIA int rate benchmark 4.43 4.43 0 US SOFR 5.05 5.05 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 17-05-2023 18-05-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (0.8) (0.9) (0.1) Reverse repo 0.1 0.1 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
16-05-2023 17-05-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 349.8 280.4 (69.5) Debt 141.3 182.5 41.3 Equity 208.6 97.8 (110.7) Mutual funds (Rs cr) (147.1) (1,645.4) (1,498.3) Debt (771.1) (1,032.6) (261.4) Equity 624.0 (612.8) (1,236.9) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Mutual funds data as of 8 May 2023 and 9 May 2023
Crude prices fell (1.4%), amidst stronger dollar and greater chances of rate hike.
Fig 7 – Commodities
17-05-2023 18-05-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 77.0 75.9 (1.4) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,981.8 1,957.6 (1.2) Copper (US$/ MT) 8,262.8 8,128.5 (1.6) Zinc (US$/MT) 2,518.8 2,450.0 (2.7) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,296.5 2,283.5 (0.6) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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