Weekly Wrap
13th - 17th June, 2022
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13 June 2022
As a surprise to the markets, US CPI in May’22 rose to 8.6% (est.: 8.3%) from 8.3% in Apr’22, thus reaching the highest mark since Dec’81. While analysts have predicted inflation to have peaked, this rise now opens doors for even more aggressive rate hike by US Fed in the coming months (est: +75bps in Jul’22 versus 50bps expected earlier). Recently, ECB has also indicated to begin rate hike cycle from Jul’22. Continuously elevated inflation also signals that consumers might cut back on demand, thus lending supports to fears of global economic slowdown.
Barring Shanghai Comp, other global indices ended in red as investor monitored policy decision by ECB and much higher than anticipated inflation print in the US. S&P 500 (2.9%) dropped the most amongst other global indices. European indices too ended lower. Following subdued global cues, Sensex (1.8%) ended in red and was pulled lower by losses in oil and gas and IT stocks. It is trading further lower today in line with other Asian indices.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
10-06-2022 % change Dow Jones 31,393 (2.7) S & P 500 3,901 (2.9) FTSE 7,318 (2.1) Nikkei 27,824 (1.5) Hang Seng 21,806 (0.3) Shanghai Comp 3,285 1.4 Sensex 54,303 (1.8) Nifty 16,202 (1.7) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except JPY, other global currencies closed lower. DXY rose by 0.9% (highest since-17 May 2022) tracking higher US 10Y yield and much higher than anticipated inflation print. This raises expectations of more hawkish tone by Fed in its upcoming policy (later this week). INR fell by 0.1% amidst FPI outflows. It is trading further lower today while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
09-06-2022 10-06-2022 % change EUR/USD 1.0617 1.0519 (0.9) GBP/USD 1.2493 1.2315 (1.4) USD/JPY 134.36 134.41 0 USD/INR 77.77 77.84 (0.1) USD/CNY 6.6925 6.7091 (0.2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Barring China and Japan (flat), other major global yields inched up. UK (12bps) and US’ (11bps) 10Y yields rose most sharply, following the release of higher than expected US CPI print. Investor sentiment was also impacted by ECB’s upward revision to its inflation forecasts and indication of imminent rate hike in Jul’22. India’s 10Y yield rose by 2bps to 7.52%, following the auction results.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
09-06-2022 10-06-2022 change in bps US 3.04 3.16 11 UK 2.32 2.45 12 Germany 1.43 1.52 9 Japan 0.25 0.25 0 China 2.80 2.79 0 India 7.50 7.52 2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
09-06-2022 10-06-2022 % change Tbill-91 days 5.0 5.0 (1) Tbill-192 days 5.5 5.6 3 Tbill-364 days 6.1 6.1 (2) G-Sec 2Y 6.5 6.5 0 SONIA int rate benchmark 0.9 0.9 0 US SOFR 0.8 0.8 (1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 09-06-2022 10-06-2022 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (3.2) (3.5) (0.3) Reverse repo 1.0 1.0 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
08-06-2022 09-06-2022 change (US$ mn/Rs FII (US$ mn) (296.1) (180.7) cr) 115.4 Debt 13.7 (0.6) (14.3) Equity (309.8) (180.1) 129.7 Mutual funds (Rs cr) (1,011.0) 495.3 1,506.4 Debt (1,508.0) (457.9) 1,050.2 Equity 497.0 953.2 456.2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research; Note-mutual fund data pertains to 16 and 17 May 2022
Brent crude prices fell by 0.9% to US$ 122/bbl, following surge in US CPI print and re-imposition of partial lockdown in China. Analysts high prices to dent consumer demand. Gold prices rose by 1.3% led by fears economic slowdown.
Fig 7 – Commodities
09-06-2022 10-06-2022 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 123.1 122.0 (0.9) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,848.0 1,871.6 1.3 Copper (US$/ MT) 9,620.1 9,447.3 (1.8) Zinc (US$/MT) 3,777.3 3,706.8 (1.9) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,761.0 2,680.0 (2.9) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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14 June 2022
Global stock markets ended in red and 10Y yields inched up, as investors fear more aggressive rate hike by US Fed to tame the inflation. Tight liquidity conditions and elevated price pressures may dent demand, thus increasing the possibility of economic recession. Latest print from UK shows that the monthly GDP rose by 0.2% (est.: 0.4%) in Apr’22, slowing from 0.8% in Mar’22. Industrial production contracted by 0.6% (est.: 0.3% increase) with manufacturing output declining by 1%. Both shortage of supplies and increasing input costs have impacted the output.
Global indices continued to slide as investors turned their focus towards upcoming Fed policy meet. S&P500 tumbled by 3.9%, signalling the entry into bear market and aggravating fears of recession. Hang Seng and Nikkei ended lower by 3.4% and 3% respectively. Sensex (2.7%) too ended in deep red led by sharp losses in IT and metal stocks. It is trading lower today in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
10-06-2022 13-06-2022 % change Dow Jones 31,393 30,517 (2.8) S & P 500 3,901 3,750 (3.9) FTSE 7,318 7,206 (1.5) Nikkei 27,824 26,987 (3.0) Hang Seng 21,806 21,068 (3.4) Shanghai Comp 3,285 3,256 (0.9) Sensex 54,303 52,847 (2.7) Nifty 16,202 15,774 (2.6) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Barring JPY, other global currencies ended lower against the dollar. DXY climbed to 20-year high ahead of the much-anticipated hawkish Fed policy. GBP was under pressure and fell by 1.5% amidst disappointing GDP print. INR depreciated by 0.3% and hit a record low at 78/US$. However, it is trading higher today while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
10-06-2022 13-06-2022 % change EUR/USD 1.0519 1.0409 (1.0) GBP/USD 1.2315 1.2134 (1.5) USD/JPY 134.41 134.42 0 USD/INR 77.84 78.04 (0.3) USD/CNY 6.7091 6.7546 (0.7) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Barring Japan (flat), other major global yields rose sharply. US (20bps), Germany (12bps) and UK’s (8bps) 10Y yields rose the most. Investor sentiments were dented by US’ red hot inflation print raising fears of aggressive rate hikes by Fed, thus tipping the economy into recession. Following global cues, India’s 10Y yield too rose by 8bps to 7.6%.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
10-06-2022 13-06-2022 change in bps US 3.16 3.36 20 UK 2.45 2.53 8 Germany 1.52 1.63 12 Japan 0.25 0.26 0 China 2.79 2.81 1 India 7.52 7.60 8 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
10-06-2022 13-06-2022 % change Tbill-91 days 5.0 5.0 (1) Tbill-192 days 5.6 5.6 4 Tbill-364 days 6.1 6.1 3 G-Sec 2Y 6.5 6.6 6 SONIA int rate benchmark 0.9 0.9 0 US SOFR 0.8 0.8 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 10-06-2022 13-06-2022 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (3.5) (3.6) (0.1) Reverse repo 1.0 1.0 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
09-06-2022 10-06-2022 change (US$ mn/Rs FII (US$ mn) (180.7) (624.6) cr) (443.9) Debt (0.6) (215.9) (215.3) Equity (180.1) (408.7) (228.6) Mutual funds (Rs cr) (1,011.0) 495.3 1,506.4 Debt (1,508.0) (457.9) 1,050.2 Equity 497.0 953.2 456.2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research; Note-mutual fund data pertains to 16 and 17 May 2022
Brent crude prices rose by 0.2%. Prices were impacted by tight supply owing to drop in exports from Libya and possibility of dented consumer demand. Gold prices fell by 2.8% as US$ strengthened.
Fig 7 – Commodities
10-06-2022 13-06-2022 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 122.0 122.3 0.2 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,871.6 1,819.3 (2.8) Copper (US$/ MT) 9,447.3 9,285.5 (1.7) Zinc (US$/MT) 3,706.8 3,627.8 (2.1) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,680.0 2,628.0 (1.9) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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15 June 2022
Global investors remain cautious as elevated inflation prints increase the risk of aggressive rate hikes by central banks. Input prices still remain a concern in the US with PPI rising by 0.8% in May’22 versus 0.4% in Apr’22. CPI in Germany too was confirmed at 7.9% in May’22 versus 7.4% in Apr’22. Tight monetary conditions also increase the risk of global growth slowdown. On the brighter side, China’s industrial output rebounded in May’22 posting 0.7% increase (est.: -0.7%) versus (-) 2.9% in Apr’22. Retails sales contracted less (-6.7%) than expected (-7.1%) in May’22.
Barring Hang Seng (flat) and Shanghai Comp (higher), other global indices ended lower amidst surge in global inflation print and escalated fears of recession, ahead of the US Fed policy meet. Nikkei (1.3%) dropped the most. Sensex (0.3%) also ended in red led by losses in oil and gas stocks. It is further trading lower today, while other Asian indices are trading higher.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
13-06-2022 14-06-2022 % change Dow Jones 30,517 30,365 (0.5) S & P 500 3,750 3,735 (0.4) FTSE 7,206 7,187 (0.3) Nikkei 26,987 26,630 (1.3) Hang Seng 21,068 21,068 0 Shanghai Comp 3,256 3,289 1.0 Sensex 52,847 52,694 (0.3) Nifty 15,774 15,732 (0.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies ended mixed. DXY rose by 0.4% and continued to rally upwards as it scaled towards a two-decade high, ahead of the Fed policy outcome. GBP slid by 1.1% amidst weaker data print (wages falling at fastest pace in over 20-years and higher unemployment rate). INR ended flat after touching a record low at 78/US$. It is trading lower today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
13-06-2022 14-06-2022 % change EUR/USD 1.0409 1.0416 0.1 GBP/USD 1.2134 1.1997 (1.1) USD/JPY 134.42 135.47 (0.8) USD/INR 78.04 78.01 0 USD/CNY 6.7546 6.7410 0.2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Barring Japan and India (lower), other major global yields rose further. Germany (13bps), US (11bps) and UK’s (6bps) 10Y yields rose the most. Yields have been increasing in response to rising probability of aggressive rate hikes by central banks and growing fears of economic recession. US PPI rose by 0.8% in May’22, up from 0.4% in Apr’22. India’s 10Y yield fell by 2bps to 7.58% as oil prices eased.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
13-06-2022 14-06-2022 change in bps US 3.36 3.47 11 UK 2.53 2.59 6 Germany 1.63 1.76 13 Japan 0.26 0.25 (1) China 2.81 2.81 1 India 7.60 7.58 (2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
13-06-2022 14-06-2022 % change Tbill-91 days 5.0 5.0 1 Tbill-192 days 5.6 5.6 (1) Tbill-364 days 6.1 6.1 0 G-Sec 2Y 6.6 6.6 0 SONIA int rate benchmark 0.9 0.9 0 US SOFR 0.8 0.7 (2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 13-06-2022 14-06-2022 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (3.6) (3.6) 0 Reverse repo 1.0 0.6 (0.4) Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
10-06-2022 13-06-2022 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (624.6) (498.6) 126.0 Debt (215.9) (42.2) 173.7 Equity (408.7) (456.4) (47.6) Mutual funds (Rs cr) (1,011.0) 495.3 1,506.4 Debt (1,508.0) (457.9) 1,050.2 Equity 497.0 953.2 456.2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research; Note-mutual fund data pertains to 16 and 17 May 2022
Brent crude prices fell by 0.9% as investors remain cautious against re- imposition of lockdown restrictions in China and growing worries around global recession. Gold prices too fell by 0.6% as US$ strengthened further.
Fig 7 – Commodities
13-06-2022 14-06-2022 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 122.3 121.2 (0.9) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,819.3 1,808.5 (0.6) Copper (US$/ MT) 9,285.5 9,218.8 (0.7) Zinc (US$/MT) 3,627.8 3,629.8 0.1 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,628.0 2,570.0 (2.2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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16 June 2022
US Fed in its latest meeting has raised the policy rates by 75bps, as inflation continues to soar. Cause of inflation has been attributed to ongoing war and Covid- 19 related lockdowns in China, leading to demand-supply mismatch. Policy rate is projected to increase to 3.4% by end of CY22 (1.9% projected in Mar’22), 3.8% by end of CY23 and back to 3.4% by the end of CY24. Growth outlook has been downgraded to 1.7% (CY22) from 2.8% estimated earlier in Mar’22. Inflation is estimated at 5.2% this year versus 4.3% earlier. Showing the impact of elevated prices, retail sales in US fell by -0.3% in May’22 (est.: 0.1%) versus 0.7% in Apr’22
Barring Nikkei and Sensex, other global indices rebounded and ended higher. S&P 500 surged by 1.5% as Fed delivered 75bps rate hike in order to tame inflation. FTSE and Hang Seng ended higher by 1.2% and 1.1% each. On the other hand, Sensex (0.3%) ended in red led by losses in power and oil and gas stocks. However, it is trading higher today in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
14-06-2022 15-06-2022 % change Dow Jones 30,365 30,669 1.0 S & P 500 3,735 3,790 1.5 FTSE 7,187 7,273 1.2 Nikkei 26,630 26,326 (1.1) Hang Seng 21,068 21,308 1.1 Shanghai Comp 3,289 3,305 0.5 Sensex 52,694 52,541 (0.3) Nifty 15,732 15,692 (0.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except INR, other global currencies ended higher against the dollar. DXY retreated by 0.3% post Fed rate hike. Euro rose by 0.3% ahead of emergency meeting called by ECB council. GBP was up by 1.5% awaiting at least 25bps rate hike in the upcoming BoE policy meet. INR depreciated further. However, it is trading higher today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
14-06-2022 15-06-2022 % change EUR/USD 1.0416 1.0444 0.3 GBP/USD 1.1997 1.2180 1.5 USD/JPY 135.47 133.84 1.2 USD/INR 78.01 78.07 (0.1) USD/CNY 6.7410 6.7149 0.4 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields closed mixed with yields in developed markets declining significantly. US 10Y yield fell the most (19bps) as Fed indicated that policy rates will come in CY24 as inflation comes down. UK (12bps) and Germany (11bps) too declined. India’s 10Y yield rose a tad by 1bps to 7.59%, awaiting cues from global markets.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
13-06-2022 14-06-2022 change in bps US 3.36 3.47 11 UK 2.53 2.59 6 Germany 1.63 1.76 13 Japan 0.26 0.25 (1) China 2.81 2.81 1 India 7.60 7.58 (2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
14-06-2022 15-06-2022 % change Tbill-91 days 5.0 5.0 8 Tbill-192 days 5.6 5.7 10 Tbill-364 days 6.1 6.3 17 G-Sec 2Y 6.6 6.6 1 SONIA int rate benchmark 0.9 0.9 0 US SOFR 0.7 0.7 (4) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 14-06-2022 15-06-2022 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (3.6) (3.5) 0.1 Reverse repo 1.0 1.0 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
13-06-2022 14-06-2022 change (US$ mn/Rs FII (US$ mn) (498.6) (565.6) cr) (67.0) Debt (42.2) (12.7) 29.6 Equity (456.4) (552.9) (96.6) Mutual funds (Rs cr) (1,011.0) 495.3 1,506.4 Debt (1,508.0) (457.9) 1,050.2 Equity 497.0 953.2 456.2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research; Note-mutual fund data pertains to 16 and 17 May 2022
Brent crude prices fell by 2.2% over fears of dent in consumer demand (US retail sales contracted) and resurgence in Covid-19 cases in China. On the other hand, gold prices rose by 1.4% as US$ retreated following Fed’s decision.
Fig 7 – Commodities
14-06-2022 15-06-2022 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 121.2 118.5 (2.2) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,808.5 1,833.8 1.4 Copper (US$/ MT) 9,218.8 9,224.5 0.1 Zinc (US$/MT) 3,629.8 3,698.5 1.9 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,570.0 2,592.5 0.9 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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17 June 2022
Rate hike spree of global central banks continued, with Bank of Japan (BoJ) still remaining an exception. Swiss National Bank (SNB) for the first time in past 15 years raised policy rate by 50bps. Bank of England (BoE) also went for 5th straight rate hike of 25bps, highest level in past 13 years, on account of inflation reigning at its 40-year high. BoJ however, continued with its ultra-dovish monetary response to support growth. Post policy, yen has further weakened by 1.2%.
Global stock rout intensified as rate hikes by BoE and SNB exacerbated concerns over global growth. Barring Nikkei, other equity indices ended sharply lower. S&P 500 and FTSE dropped the most by 3.3% and 3.1% respectively. Sensex too declined by 2%, amidst weak global cues. Metal and real estate stocks fell the most. It is trading further lower today in line with its Asian peers.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
15-06-2022 16-06-2022 % change Dow Jones 30,669 29,927 (2.4) S & P 500 3,790 3,667 (3.3) FTSE 7,273 7,045 (3.1) Nikkei 26,326 26,431 0.4 Hang Seng 21,308 20,845 (2.2) Shanghai Comp 3,305 3,285 (0.6) Sensex 52,541 51,496 (2.0) Nifty 15,692 15,361 (2.1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies ended broadly higher. DXY fell sharply by 1.5% as US Fed lowered its growth projections for CY22. GBP gained the most by 1.4% as BoE raised policy rate by 25bps. EUR was up by 1% amidst a spike in German 10Y bond yield. INR depreciated a tad to a fresh historic low of 78.08/$, weighed down by higher oil prices and weakness in domestic equity markets. However, it is trading higher today, while other Asian currencies are trading lower.
Fig 2 – Currencies
15-06-2022 16-06-2022 % change EUR/USD 1.0444 1.0549 1.0 GBP/USD 1.2180 1.2352 1.4 USD/JPY 133.84 132.21 1.2 USD/INR 78.07 78.08 0 USD/CNY 6.7149 6.7044 0.2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields closed mixed. Japan’s 10Y yield closed stable awaiting BoJ’s decision. Today, post ultra-loose policy, it is trading lower. US 10Y yield fell by 9bps as macro prints remained weaker (jobless claims fell less than expected and housing starts print was at its 13-month low). Germany’s 10Y yield on the other hand, rose by 7bps on expectation of faster pace of rate hike from ECB. Notably, in its adhoc meeting, ECB created new tool to address fragmentation risk and temper bond rout. India’s 10Y yield rose by 3bps (7.62%) tracking 5- year OIS rates (which rose by 8bps to 7.34%). It is trading at 7.6% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
15-06-2022 16-06-2022 change in bps US 3.28 3.20 (9) UK 2.47 2.52 5 Germany 1.64 1.71 7 Japan 0.26 0.26 0 China 2.82 2.82 (1) India 7.59 7.62 3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
15-06-2022 16-06-2022 % change Tbill-91 days 5.0 5.1 1 Tbill-192 days 5.7 5.7 (1) Tbill-364 days 6.3 6.2 (1) G-Sec 2Y 6.6 6.6 8 SONIA int rate benchmark 0.9 0.9 0 US SOFR 0.7 0.7 1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 14-06-2022 15-06-2022 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (3.5) (2.9) 0.6 Reverse repo 1.0 1.0 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
14-06-2022 15-06-2022 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (565.6) (416.0) 149.6 Debt (12.7) 14.1 26.7 Equity (552.9) (430.1) 122.8 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 2,579.0 897.3 (1,681.7) Debt 276.2 865.0 588.8 Equity 2,302.8 32.3 (2,270.4) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research; Note-mutual fund data pertains to 16 and 17 May 2022
Crude prices rose by 1.1% to US$ 120/bbl, as US announced new sanctions on Iran which aggravated supply concerns. Further, IEA said it expects demand to rise further in CY23. Gold prices rose by 1.3%, amidst safe haven demand due to fear of growth slowdown.
Fig 7 – Commodities
15-06-2022 16-06-2022 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 118.5 119.8 1.1 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,833.8 1,857.3 1.3 Copper (US$/ MT) 9,224.5 9,079.8 (1.6) Zinc (US$/MT) 3,698.5 3,630.5 (1.8) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,592.5 2,504.5 (3.4) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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