Weekly Wrap
20th - 24th June, 2022
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20 June 2022
Concerns of global growth slowdown aggravated with US industrial production print remaining weak in May’22. This is in addition to other macro indicators such as retail sales, housing starts also registering significant slowdown currently. Thus, sell off in the equity market was seen, currencies depreciated and demand for sovereign bonds increased. Crude prices also fell to its lowest since 23 May 2022 at US$ 113/bbl, on account of demand concerns. Domestic yield also fell by 7bps.
Global stocks ended mixed. Nikkei dropped the most by 1.8%, as BoJ kept policy rate steady. Dow Jones too slipped by 0.1% as US industrial production rose less than expected in May’22. However, S&P 500 rose by 0.2%. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp rose by 1.1% and 1% respectively. However, Sensex fell by 0.3% dragged down by oil and gas and consumer durables stocks. However, it is trading higher today while other Asian stock are trading mixed.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
16-06-2022 17-06-2022 % change Dow Jones 29,927 29,889 (0.1) S & P 500 3,667 3,675 0.2 FTSE 7,045 7,016 (0.4) Nikkei 26,431 25,963 (1.8) Hang Seng 20,845 21,075 1.1 Shanghai Comp 3,285 3,317 1.0 Sensex 51,496 51,360 (0.3) Nifty 15,361 15,294 (0.4) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies closed lower against the dollar. DXY strengthened by 1% amidst growing concerns over global growth outlook. JPY slipped by 2.1% as BoJ reiterated its ultra-dovish policy stance. EUR depreciated by 0.5% as Euro Area’s CPI rose further. INR depreciated marginally to a fresh historic low of 78.09/$, led by higher oil prices and FPI outflows. However, it is trading higher today, while other Asian currencies are trading lower.
Fig 2 – Currencies
16-06-2022 17-06-2022 % change EUR/USD 1.0549 1.0499 (0.5) GBP/USD 1.2352 1.2241 (0.9) USD/JPY 132.21 135.02 (2.1) USD/INR 78.08 78.08 (0.0) USD/CNY 6.7044 6.7167 (0.2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except US (higher) and China (stable), global yields closed lower. Concerns of global growth slowdown increased appetite for sovereign bonds. Thus, Germany’s 10Y yield fell by 5bps followed by Japan’s 10Y yield (-3bps). However, US 10Y yield rose by 3bps as expectation of future pace of aggressive rate hike remained contained. Elsewhere, even ECB official said that a 50bps rate hike cannot be ruled out in the event of rising inflation. India’s 10Y yield fell by 7bps (7.54%) supported by moderation in oil prices.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
16-06-2022 17-06-2022 change in bps US 3.20 3.23 3 UK 2.52 2.50 (2) Germany 1.71 1.66 (5) Japan 0.26 0.23 (3) China 2.82 2.81 0 India 7.62 7.54 (7) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
16-06-2022 17-06-2022 % change Tbill-91 days 5.1 5.1 4 Tbill-192 days 5.7 5.7 1 Tbill-364 days 6.2 6.2 0 G-Sec 2Y 6.6 6.6 (4) SONIA int rate benchmark 0.9 1.2 25 US SOFR 0.7 1.5 75 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 16-06-2022 17-06-2022 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (2.9) (2.3) 0.6 Reverse repo 1.0 0.3 (0.7) Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
14-06-2022 15-06-2022 change (US$ mn/Rs FII (US$ mn) (416.0) (387.7) cr) 28.4 Debt 14.1 12.2 (1.9) Equity (430.1) (399.9) 30.2 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 2,579.0 897.3 (1,681.7) Debt 276.2 865.0 588.8 Equity 2,302.8 32.3 (2,270.4) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research; Note-mutual fund data pertains to 16 and 17 May 2022
Crude prices fell by 5.6% to its lowest since May’22 at US$ 113/bbl, as demand concerns weighed in. Further news reports suggested that, Russia, expects its oil exports to increase in CY22 despite Western sanctions and a European embargo. Gold prices fell by 1%, due to strengthening dollar.
Fig 7 – Commodities
16-06-2022 17-06-2022 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 119.8 113.1 (5.6) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,857.3 1,839.4 (1.0) Copper (US$/ MT) 9,079.8 8,967.0 (1.2) Zinc (US$/MT) 3,630.5 3,576.5 (1.5) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,504.5 2,498.0 (0.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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21 June 2022
Concerns of elevated inflation print predominated with Germany’s producer prices (PPI) rising to yet another record high of 33.6% in May’22. ECB president also reaffirmed its plan to raise policy rates twice between Jul-Sep’22 and also spoke of heightened risks to financial stability. In its recent minutes, RBA also said that its inflation print will peak at 7% by end of CY22. Thus, 25-50bps rate hike is expected in its Jul’22 meeting. Even St Louis Fed President warned that US inflation expectations could ‘become unmoored without credible Fed action’. Market will also await cues from Fed President’s testimony to be held this week. On the domestic front, India’s 10Y yield fell by 12bps as OIS rates fell across all tenors.
Global indices ended mixed. FTSE rose the most by 1.5% supported by gains in financial and energy stocks. Hang Seng too gained by 0.4%. On the other hand, Nikkei fell by 0.7%. Sensex snapped its 6-day losing streak and rose by 0.5%. This was led by gains in technology and consumer durables stocks. It is trading further higher today in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
17-06-2022 20-06-2022 % change Dow Jones 29,927 29,889 (0.1) S & P 500 3,667 3,675 0.2 FTSE 7,016 7,122 1.5 Nikkei 25,963 25,771 (0.7) Hang Seng 21,075 21,164 0.4 Shanghai Comp 3,317 3,315 0 Sensex 51,360 51,598 0.5 Nifty 15,294 15,350 0.4 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except JPY (flat), other major global currencies gained against the dollar. DXY fell by 0.4%. EUR rose by 0.1% as ECB President confirmed a 25bps rate hike in Jul’22. GBP also rose by 0.1% amidst hawkish comments from BoE’s Catherine Mann. INR strengthened by 0.1%. However, it is trading lower today, while other Asian currencies are trading higher.
Fig 2 – Currencies
17-06-2022 20-06-2022 % change EUR/USD 1.0499 1.0511 0.1 GBP/USD 1.2241 1.2253 0.1 USD/JPY 135.02 135.07 0 USD/INR 78.08 77.98 0.1 USD/CNY 6.7167 6.6925 0.4 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except India (lower), global yields closed higher. UK (highest since CY14) and Germany’s 10Y yield rose the most by 11bps and 9bps respectively. This was on account of central bank officials hinting at higher policy rate on the back of heightened inflationary pressure and weakening currencies. India’s 10Y yield on the other hand, fell by 12bps (7.43%) as OIS rates fell for all maturities (1Y:- 5bps,3Y:-13bps, 5Y:-18bps and 10Y:-17bps). It is trading at higher 7.47% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
17-06-2022 20-06-2022 change in bps US 3.20 3.23 3 UK 2.50 2.60 11 Germany 1.66 1.75 9 Japan 0.23 0.24 1 China 2.81 2.83 1 India 7.54 7.43 (12) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
17-06-2022 20-06-2022 % change Tbill-91 days 5.1 5.0 (6) Tbill-192 days 5.7 5.7 (3) Tbill-364 days 6.2 6.2 (8) G-Sec 2Y 6.6 6.5 (6) SONIA int rate benchmark 1.2 1.2 0 US SOFR 0.7 1.5 75 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 17-06-2022 20-06-2022 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (2.3) (2.1) 0.2 Reverse repo 0.3 2.0 1.7 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
16-06-2022 17-06-2022 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (387.7) (974.8) (587.1) Debt 12.2 171.7 159.5 Equity (399.9) (1,146.5) (746.6) Mutual funds (Rs cr) 1,700.1 (475.9) (2,175.9) Debt 576.2 (1,000.0) (1,576.2) Equity 1,123.9 524.1 (599.8) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research; Note-mutual fund data pertains to 16 and 17 May 2022
Crude prices rose by 0.9% to US$ 114/bbl as concerns over tight supply outweighed fears of recession. Gold prices closed flat.
Fig 7 – Commodities
17-06-2022 20-06-2022 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 113.1 114.1 0.9 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,839.4 1,838.7 0 Copper (US$/ MT) 8,967.0 8,989.5 0.3 Zinc (US$/MT) 3,576.5 3,593.8 0.5 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,498.0 2,527.0 1.2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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22 June 2022
Us macro prints showed another round of weakness with existing home sales print dropping to its 2-year low in May’22. Elsewhere in China, Finance Minister spoke of further stimulus to boost the economy from the reeling crisis. Market is eyeing Fed Chair’s testimony for cues on inflation and rates. ECB’s Chief Economist stated that a 50bps rate hike might also be possible in Jul’22. JPY dropped to its lowest since Sep’98 on account of widening yield gap with the US and ultra-loose monetary policy. On the domestic front, yields rose by 5bps as crude prices inched up.
Except Shanghai Comp (lower), other global stocks ended higher led by improvement in global risk appetite. US stocks staged an impressive rebound with both Dow Jones and S&P 500 rising by above 2%. Hang Seng and Nikkei also rose by 1.9% and 1.8% respectively. Sensex rose by 1.8% led by gains in oil&gas, consumer durables and capital goods stocks. However, it is trading lower today, in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
20-06-2022 21-06-2022 % change Dow Jones 29,889 30,530 2.1 S & P 500 3,675 3,765 2.4 FTSE 7,122 7,152 0.4 Nikkei 25,771 26,246 1.8 Hang Seng 21,164 21,560 1.9 Shanghai Comp 3,315 3,307 (0.3) Sensex 51,598 52,532 1.8 Nifty 15,350 15,639 1.9 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies closed mixed. DXY fell by 0.2% as US existing homes sales declined to a 2-year low in May’22. JPY fell by 1.1% to its lowest since Sep’98, amidst widening policy divergence between BoJ and other central banks. On the other hand, EUR gained by 0.2% amidst hawkish comments from ECB’s Chief Economist. INR depreciated by 0.1% as oil prices rose. It is trading at a fresh historic low of 78.18/$ today. Other Asian currencies are also trading lower.
Fig 2 – Currencies
20-06-2022 21-06-2022 % change EUR/USD 1.0511 1.0533 0.2 GBP/USD 1.2253 1.2277 0.2 USD/JPY 135.07 136.57 (1.1) USD/INR 77.98 78.08 (0.1) USD/CNY 6.6925 6.6895 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except Japan and China (stable), global yields closed higher. US and UK’S 10Y yield rose by 5bps each. Investors are eyeing Fed’s testimony for cues on future trajectory of policy rate and inflation. Even Fed Bank of Richmond President hinted at a faster pace of rate hike. Market is also eyeing UK’s CPI print scheduled to be released today. India’s 10Y yield also rose by 5bps (7.48%), tracking rise in crude oil prices. It is trading lower at 7.41% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
20-06-2022 21-06-2022 change in bps US 3.23 3.27 5 UK 2.60 2.65 5 Germany 1.75 1.77 2 Japan 0.24 0.24 0 China 2.83 2.83 0 India 7.43 7.48 5 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
20-06-2022 21-06-2022 % change Tbill-91 days 5.0 5.0 (1) Tbill-192 days 5.7 5.5 (15) Tbill-364 days 6.2 6.2 1 G-Sec 2Y 6.5 6.6 1 SONIA int rate benchmark 1.2 1.2 0 US SOFR 1.5 1.5 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 20-06-2022 21-06-2022 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (2.1) (2.1) 0 Reverse repo 2.0 2.0 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
17-06-2022 20-06-2022 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (974.8) (11.2) 963.6 Debt 171.7 (55.0) (226.7) Equity (1,146.5) 43.8 1,190.3 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 1,700.1 (475.9) (2,175.9) Debt 576.2 (1,000.0) (1,576.2) Equity 1,123.9 524.1 (599.8) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research; Note-mutual fund data pertains to 16 and 17 May 2022
Crude prices rose by 0.5% to US$ 115/bbl on account of drop in US crude and gasoline inventory last week. Gold prices on the other hand, fell by 0.3%.
Fig 7 – Commodities
20-06-2022 21-06-2022 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 114.1 114.7 0.5 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,838.7 1,833.0 (0.3) Copper (US$/ MT) 8,989.5 8,995.5 0.1 Zinc (US$/MT) 3,593.8 3,703.0 3.0 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,527.0 2,533.5 0.3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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23 June 2022
Ferrs of elevated inflation and recession again took the centre stage. UK CPI print rose to its 40-year high of 9.1% in May’22, led by escalated food prices. Fed Chair on the other hand in his testimony said that there might be a possibility of ‘hard landing’ in terms of growth. Elsewhere, China’s President also spoke of further measures needed to restore economic stability. US President proposed a 3-month suspension of federal gasoline tax to provide respite to consumers. On the domestic front, MPC minutes flagged inflation as the major cause of worry. India’s CAD narrowed to 1.5% of GDP in Q4FY22 from 2.6% in Q2 led by moderation in trade deficit. For FY22, CAD expanded to 1.2% of GDP versus a surplus of 0.9% in FY21.
Global stocks retreated as recession risks resurfaced. While reiterating the commitment to keep inflation in check, Fed Chair warned of the possibility of recession. Hang Seng fell the most by 2.6%, followed by Sensex which fell by 1.4%. The decline in domestic market was led by metal and real estate stocks. However, it is trading higher today, in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
21-06-2022 22-06-2022 % change Dow Jones 30,530 30,483 (0.2) S & P 500 3,765 3,760 (0.1) FTSE 7,152 7,089 (0.9) Nikkei 26,246 26,150 (0.4) Hang Seng 21,560 21,008 (2.6) Shanghai Comp 3,307 3,267 (1.2) Sensex 52,532 51,823 (1.4) Nifty 15,639 15,413 (1.4) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except EUR and JPY (higher), other global currencies closed lower. DXY fell by 0.2% in line with the decline in US 10Y yield as Fed Chair warned about the possibility of recession. GBP fell by 0.1% as UK’s inflation surged further. EUR rose by 0.3% even as Euro Area’s consumer confidence index declined in Jun’22. INR depreciated by 0.4% to a fresh historic low of 78.39/$ amidst subdued global cues and weakness in other EM currencies. However, it is trading higher today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
21-06-2022 22-06-2022 % change EUR/USD 1.0533 1.0566 0.3 GBP/USD 1.2277 1.2266 (0.1) USD/JPY 136.57 136.26 0.2 USD/INR 78.08 78.39 (0.4) USD/CNY 6.6895 6.7023 (0.2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except Japan (higher) and China (stable), global yields closed lower. UK, Germany and US’ 10Y yield fell the most by 16, 13 and 12bps each. Investors’ appetite for sovereign bonds increased amidst growing fears of recession as flagged by Fed’s Chair in his recent testimony. India’s 10Y yield also fell by 9bps (7.4%) supported by moderation in oil prices. It is trading at 7.39% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
21-06-2022 22-06-2022 change in bps US 3.27 3.16 (12) UK 2.65 2.50 (16) Germany 1.77 1.64 (13) Japan 0.24 0.25 1 China 2.83 2.83 0 India 7.48 7.40 (9) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
21-06-2022 22-06-2022 % change Tbill-91 days 5.0 5.1 6 Tbill-192 days 5.5 5.7 20 Tbill-364 days 6.2 6.3 9 G-Sec 2Y 6.6 6.5 (1) SONIA int rate benchmark 1.2 1.2 0 US SOFR 1.5 1.5 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 21-06-2022 22We06-2022 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (2.1) (2.1) 0 Reverse repo 2.0 2.0 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
20-06-2022 21-06-2022 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (11.2) (118.7) (107.6) Debt (55.0) 32.0 87.0 Equity 43.8 (150.8) (194.6) Mutual funds (Rs cr) 1,700.1 (475.9) (2,175.9) Debt 576.2 (1,000.0) (1,576.2) Equity 1,123.9 524.1 (599.8) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research; Note-mutual fund data pertains to 16 and 17 May 2022
Crude prices fell by 2.5% to US$ 112/bbl, as recession fears loomed. Gold prices on the other hand, rose by 0.3% on safe haven demand.
Fig 7 – Commodities
21-06-2022 22-06-2022 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 114.7 111.7 (2.5) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,833.0 1,837.7 0.3 Copper (US$/ MT) 8,995.5 8,773.5 (2.5) Zinc (US$/MT) 3,703.0 3,696.5 (0.2) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,533.5 2,479.5 (2.1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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24 June 2022
Flash PMI readings of major economies reignited concerns surrounding global growth slowdown. In the US, flash composite PMI print hit a 5-month low in Jun’22. In the Eurozone, the composite print was at its 16-month low and in the UK, the manufacturing PMI print fell to its 23-month low. Fed Chair reiterated his commitment to bring down price increases ‘unconditionally’. Even Fed Governor Michelle Bowman spoke of another 75bps rate hike in Jul’22. Elsewhere, Central bank of Mexico delivered record rate hike of 75bps in its latest meeting, amidst inflation running at its 21-year high.
Except FTSE (lower), other global stocks ended higher. Shanghai Comp rose the most by 1.6% amidst hopes of further stimulus to support growth. Hang Send too gained 1.3%. US stocks edged higher amidst a decline in US 10Y yield. Sensex rose by 0.9% led by gains in auto and technology stocks. It is trading further higher today, in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
22-06-2022 23-06-2022 % change Dow Jones 30,483 30,677 0.6 S & P 500 3,760 3,796 1.0 FTSE 7,089 7,020 (1.0) Nikkei 26,150 26,171 0.1 Hang Seng 21,008 21,274 1.3 Shanghai Comp 3,267 3,320 1.6 Sensex 51,823 52,266 0.9 Nifty 15,413 15,557 0.9 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies closed mixed. Flash manufacturing and services PMI indicated weakness in economic activity in major economies, fuelling concerns over recession. Safe-haven JPY and DXY rose, while EUR dropped by 0.4%. INR appreciated a tad by 0.1% as oil prices eased. It is trading further higher today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
22-06-2022 23-06-2022 % change EUR/USD 1.0566 1.0523 (0.4) GBP/USD 1.2266 1.2260 0 USD/JPY 136.26 134.95 1.0 USD/INR 78.39 78.31 0.1 USD/CNY 6.7023 6.6990 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except China (stable) and India (higher), global yields closed lower. Germany’s 10Y yield fell the most by 21bps followed by UK (-18bps) and US (-7bps). This was on account of mounting recession fears which prompted demand for sovereign yields. India’s 10Y yield rose by 2bps (7.42%) as investors remained cautious ahead of the Rs 330bn weekly auction scheduled today. It is trading at 7.43% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
22-06-2022 23-06-2022 change in bps US 3.16 3.09 (7) UK 2.50 2.32 (18) Germany 1.64 1.43 (21) Japan 0.25 0.24 (1) China 2.83 2.83 0 India 7.40 7.42 2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
22-06-2022 23-06-2022 % change Tbill-91 days 5.1 5.1 (1) Tbill-192 days 5.7 5.7 (5) Tbill-364 days 6.3 6.2 (2) G-Sec 2Y 6.5 6.5 (1) SONIA int rate benchmark 1.2 1.2 0 US SOFR 1.5 1.5 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 22-06-2022 23-06-2022 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (2.1) (2.0) 0.1 Reverse repo 2.0 2.0 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
21-06-2022 22-06-2022 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (118.7) (21.1) 97.7 Debt 32.0 313.0 281.0 Equity (150.8) (334.1) (183.3) Mutual funds (Rs cr) 1,700.1 (475.9) (2,175.9) Debt 576.2 (1,000.0) (1,576.2) Equity 1,123.9 524.1 (599.8) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research; Note-mutual fund data pertains to 16 and 17 May 2022
Crude prices fell by 1.5% to US$ 110/bbl, amidst worries over muted demand outlook. Gold prices also fell by 0.8% as dollar strengthened.
Fig 7 – Commodities
22-06-2022 23-06-2022 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 111.7 110.1 (1.5) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,837.7 1,822.8 (0.8) Copper (US$/ MT) 8,773.5 8,397.0 (4.3) Zinc (US$/MT) 3,696.5 3,709.5 0.4 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,479.5 2,477.5 (0.1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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