Weekly Wrap
9th - 13th May, 2022

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  • 9 May 2022

    Global markets remained jittery amidst rising risks to global growth. High inflation, policy tightening, Russia-Ukraine war, China’s lockdown and European sanction on Russian energy imports threaten to derail economic recovery. As a result, global stocks and currencies declined. Investors await US inflation data due late in the week. In India, concerns over inflation and fiscal deficit has put pressure on treasury yields and INR. While India’s 10Y yield is currently trading near a 3-year high, INR opened at a record low today. Equity markets too are witnessing a sharp sell-off.


    Except Nikkei, other global equities declined. Market sentiments were muted as investors assessed the impact of policy tightening on growth. Shanghai Comp fell by 2.2% as China continued with stringent lockdown measures to curb the spread of Covid-19 outbreak. FTSE fell by 1.5% amidst concerns over recession risks outlined by BoE. Sensex fell sharply by 1.6% dragged lower by real estate and metal stocks. It is trading further lower today, in line with other Asian stocks.

    Fig 1 – Stock markets

      05-05-2022 06-05-2022 % change
    Dow Jones 32,998 32,899 (0.3)
    S & P 500 4,147 4,123 (0.6)
    FTSE 7,503 7,388 (1.5)
    Nikkei 26,819 27,004 0.7
    Hang Seng 20,793 20,002 (3.8)
    Shanghai Comp 3,068 3,002 (2.2)
    Sensex 55,702 54,836 (1.6)
    Nifty 16,683 16,411 (1.6)

    Barring EUR (higher), other global currencies closed lower. DXY index fell marginally by 0.1% even as US payroll additions rose more than expected. EUR rose by 0.1% supported by hawkish comments from ECB officials. INR depreciated by 0.9% as oil prices increased. It is trading above its historic low at 77/$ today. Other Asian currencies are also trading lower.

    Fig 2 – Currencies

      05-05-2022 06-05-2022 % change
    EUR/USD 1.0542 1.0551 0.1
    GBP/USD 1.2362 1.2348 (0.1)
    USD/JPY 130.20 130.56 (0.3)
    USD/INR 76.26 76.93 (0.9)
    USD/CNY 6.6558 6.6668 (0.2)

    Except China (stable), global yields closed higher. US 10Y yield rose by 9bps as non-farm payroll additions rose more than expected in Apr’22. Even Germany’s 10Y yield rose by 9bps on expectation that ECB may start its rate hike cycle in Jul’22 amidst persisting level of record high inflation. India’s 10Y yield rose by 5bps despite favourable auction results. It is trading higher at 7.48% today.

    Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

      05-05-2022 06-05-2022 change in bps
    US 3.04 3.13 9
    UK 1.96 2.00 3
    Germany 1.04 1.13 0
    Japan 0.23 0.24 1
    China 2.83 2.83 0
    India 7.40 7.45 5

    India’s short term yields rose sharply, with 182-days TBill rising by 58bps. This is on expectation of a faster pace of rate hikes by RBI in its upcoming policies.


    Fig 4 – Short term rates

      04-05-2022 05-05-2022 % change
    Tbill-91 days 4.03 4.51 48
    Tbill-182 days 4.51 5.09 58
    Tbill-364 days 5.18 5.42 24
    G-Sec 2Y 5.59 6.15 56
    SONIA int rate benchmark 0.69 0.94 25
    US SOFR 0.30 0.79 49

    Fig 5 – Liquidity

    Rs tn 05-05-2022 06-05-2022 Change (Rs tn)
    Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (5.5) (4.7) 0.8
    Reverse repo 5.0 0.5 (4.5)
    Repo 0 0 0

    Fig 6 – Capital market flows

      04-05-2022 05-05-2022 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr)
    FII (US$ mn) (382.4) (189.4) 193
    Debt (7.5) 15.7 23.2
    Equity (374.9) (205.1) 169.8
    Mutual funds (Rs cr) 1,232.5 (1,152.8) (2,385.4)
    Debt (329.0) (1,459.9) (1,130.9)
    Equity 1,561.5 307.1 (1,254.4)

    Crude prices rose by 1.3% to US$ 112/bbl as EU is planning to phase out import of Russian refined products by end of CY22. Gold prices rose by 0.4% as recession concerns flagged by BoE boosted safe haven demand.

    Fig 7 – Commodities

      05-05-2022 06-05-2022 % change
    Brent crude (US$/bbl) 110.9 112.4 1.3
    Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,877.2 1,883.8 0.4
    Copper (US$/ MT) 9,512.5 9,411.0 (1.1)
    Zinc (US$/MT) 3,924.3 3,787.8 (3.5)
    Aluminum (US$/MT) 2,916.0 2,842.0 (2.5)

  • 10 May 2022

    Concerns over global growth drove global markets. China tightened lockdown restrictions in Shanghai, raising concerns over supply chain issues and demand slowdown. In addition, investors also remain wary of persistently high inflation, Russia-Ukraine war and monetary tightening by global central banks. As a result, the sell-off in global stocks intensified and bond yields slipped. Even in India, inflationary concerns and persistent FPI outflows drove INR to a historic low. Bond yields too continue to remain elevated, though there has been some moderation today.


    Global markets extended the sell-off led by concerns around global growth, tighter monetary policy and fears of further spike in inflation. S&P 500 (3.2%) ended at a 1-year low. Sensex (0.7%) too fell led by subdued global cues and was dragged down by sharp losses in consumer durable and power stocks. However, it is trading higher today, while other Asian stocks are trading lower.

    Fig 1 – Stock markets

      06-05-2022 09-05-2022 % change
    Dow Jones 32,899 32,246 (2.0)
    S & P 500 4,123 3,991 (3.2)
    FTSE 7,388 7,217 (2.3)
    Nikkei 27,004 26,319 (2.5)
    Hang Seng 20,793 20,002 (3.8)
    Shanghai Comp 3,002 3,004 0.1
    Sensex 54,836 54,471 (0.7)
    Nifty 16,411 16,302 (0.7)

    Global currencies closed mixed. JPY edged up amidst concerns over global growth. DXY closed flat. CNY fell sharply by 1% to its lowest since Oct’20 as China tightened lockdown restrictions in Shanghai. INR too depreciated sharply by 0.7% to a record-low amidst concerns over inflation, persistent FPI outflows and dollar strength. It is trading lower today but continues to remain above the 77/$ mark. Other Asian currencies are also trading higher today.

    Fig 2 – Currencies

      06-05-2022 09-05-2022 % change
    EUR/USD 1.0551 1.0561 0.1
    GBP/USD 1.2348 1.2332 (0.1)
    USD/JPY 130.56 130.29 0.2
    USD/INR 76.93 77.46 (0.7)
    USD/CNY 6.6668 6.7308 (1.0)

    Except Japan (stable) and India (higher), other global yields closed lower. US 10Y yield fell by 9bps ahead of key US CPI data. 10Y yields in Germany and UK also edged down by 4bps each. India’s 10Y yield rose by 2bps to 7.47%. Investors await CPI data for Apr’22. We expect CPI inflation at 7.2%. However, it is trading lower at 7.37% today.

    Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

      06-05-2022 09-05-2022 change in bps
    US 3.13 3.03 (9)
    UK 2.00 1.96 (4)
    Germany 1.13 1.10 (4)
    Japan 0.24 0.25 0
    China 2.83 2.82 (1)
    India 7.45 7.47 2


    Fig 4 – Short term rates

      06-05-2022 09-05-2022 % change
    Tbill-91 days 4.51 4.51 0
    Tbill-182 days 5.09 5.13 4
    Tbill-364 days 5.42 5.43 1
    SONIA int rate benchmark 0.94 0.94 0
    US SOFR 0.79 0.78 (1)

    Fig 5 – Liquidity

    Rs tn 06-05-2022 09-05-2022 Change (Rs tn)
    Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (4.7) (4.8) (0.1)
    Reverse repo 0.5 3.9 3.4
    Repo 0 0 0

    Fig 6 – Capital market flows

      05-05-2022 06-05-2022 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr)
    FII (US$ mn) (189.4) (817.5) (628.1)
    Debt 15.7 (215.8) (231.5)
    Equity (205.1) (601.7) (396.7)
    Mutual funds (Rs cr) 1,232.5 (1,152.8) (2,385.4)
    Debt (329.0) (1,459.9) (1,130.9)
    Equity 1,561.5 307.1 (1,254.4)

    Crude oil prices fell by 6% to US$ 106/bbl as Covid-19 restrictions in China cast a shadow on demand outlook. Other global commodities too ended lower. Gold prices retreated to its lowest level since Jul'21.

    Fig 7 – Commodities

      06-05-2022 09-05-2022 % change
    Brent crude (US$/bbl) 112.4 105.9 (5.7)
    Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,883.8 1,854.2 (1.6)
    Copper (US$/ MT) 9,411.0 9,240.4 (1.8)
    Zinc (US$/MT) 3,787.8 3,624.0 (4.3)
    Aluminum (US$/MT) 2,842.0 2,755.0 (3.1)

  • 11 May 2022

    Global markets await US CPI print (est. 8.5% YoY) to gauge Fed’ future policy decisions. Several Fed officials reiterated the need for 50bps rate hikes to tame surging inflation. Thus, DXY index strengthened further to hover around a 20-year high. In China, while CPI inflation inched up, PPI inflation eased to 8% (8.3% in Mar’22) thus leaving room for PBOC to step up support for the economy. In Germany, investor sentiment index improved.


     Global equities ended mixed. Investors keenly await US CPI data. While Dow Jones fell by 0.3%, S&P 500 rose by 0.2%. In Asia, while Hang Seng and Nikkei fell by 1.8% and 0.6% respectively, Shanghai Comp rose by 1.1%. Sensex declined by 0.2% led by losses in metal, power and real estate stocks. However, it is trading higher today, in line with other Asian stocks.

    Fig 1 – Stock markets

      09-05-2022 10-05-2022 % change
    Dow Jones 32,246 32,161 (0.3)
    S & P 500 3,991 4,001 0.2
    FTSE 7,217 7,243 0.4
    Nikkei 26,319 26,167 (0.6)
    Hang Seng 20,002 19,634 (1.8)
    Shanghai Comp 3,004 3,036 1.1
    Sensex 54,471 54,365 (0.2)
    Nifty 16,302 16,240 (0.4)

    Except INR, other global currencies depreciated against the dollar. DXY rose by 0.2% to hover around a 20-year high ahead of US CPI data. EUR depreciated by 0.3% on growth concerns, even as ZEW’s economic sentiment index for Germany showed improvement in May’22. GBP, JPY and CNY fell by 0.1% each. On the other hand, INR strengthened by 0.2% as oil prices

    Fig 2 – Currencies

      09-05-2022 10-05-2022 % change
    EUR/USD 1.0561 1.0529 (0.3)
    GBP/USD 1.2332 1.2316 (0.1)
    USD/JPY 130.29 130.45 (0.1)
    USD/INR 77.46 77.32 0.2
    USD/CNY 6.7308 6.7347 (0.1)

    Except Japan (stable), global yields closed lower amidst growing concerns over recessionary risks. UK’s 10Y yield fell by 11bps, followed by Germany (-10bps) and US (-4bps). Elsewhere, Cleveland Fed President commented on 50bps hike being feasible in the upcoming policies. Even Bundesbank Chief said ECB should raise rates in Jul’22. India’s 10Y yield fell by 17bps (7.30%) amidst expectation of OMO purchase announcement by RBI and conduct of switch operations by the government. It is trading at 7.31% today.

    Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield


      09-05-2022 10-05-2022 change in bps
    US 3.03 2.99 (4)
    UK 1.96 1.85 (11)
    Germany 1.10 1.00 (10)
    Japan 0.25 0.25 0
    China 2.82 2.81 (1)
    India 7.47 7.30 (17)

    India’s short term yields rose sharply. Markets await Rs 330bn auction today

    Fig 4 – Short term rates

      09-05-2022 10-05-2022 % change
    Tbill-91 days 4.51 4.51 4.51
    Tbill-182 days 5.13 5.13 15
    Tbill-364 days 5.43 5.43 10
    G-Sec 2Y 6.31 6.15 (3)
    SONIA int rate benchmark 0.94 0.94 0
    US SOFR 0.78 0.78 0

    Fig 5 – Liquidity

    Rs tn 09-05-2022 10-05-2022 Change (Rs tn)
    Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (4.8) (5.0) (0.2)
    Reverse repo 3.9 3.9 0
    Repo 0 0 0

    Fig 6 – Capital market flows

      09-05-2022 10-05-2022 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr)
    FII (US$ mn) (817.5) (338.4) 479.1
    Debt (215.8) 35.3 251.1
    Equity (601.7) (373.7) 228.0
    Mutual funds (Rs cr) 1,232.5 (1,152.8) (2,385.4)
    Debt (329.0) (1,459.9) (1,130.9)
    Equity 1,561.5 307.1 (1,254.4)

    Crude prices rose by 1.3% to US$ 112/bbl as EU is planning to phase out import of Russian refined products by end of CY22. Gold prices rose by 0.4% as recession concerns flagged by BoE boosted safe haven demand.

    Fig 7 – Commodities

      09-05-2022 10-05-2022 % change
    Brent crude (US$/bbl) 105.9 102.5 (3.3)
    Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,854.2 1,838.3 (0.9)
    Copper (US$/ MT) 9,240.4 9,235.8 (0.1)
    Zinc (US$/MT) 3,624.0 3,608.5 (0.4)
    Aluminum (US$/MT) 2,755.0 2,753.5 (0.1)

  • 12 May 2022

    Global markets reacted to US CPI print which came in at 8.3% for Apr’22 (est.: 8.1%), lower than previous month’s 8.5%, suggesting inflation might have peaked. As a result, global yields fell and dollar retreated (thus lending support to gold). Markets are now not expecting Fed to follow a more aggressive rate hike path. On the domestic front, T-bill rates jumped sharply at the RBI auction, as investors await CPI data (due for release today) for guidance on policy direction.


    Barring US and Indian markets, other global indices ended higher. FTSE (1.4%) gained the most led by a gains in mining and energy sector owing to strong earnings report. Positive developments around Covid-19 situation in China boosted investor sentiments. On the other hand, Sensex (0.5%) ended in red and was dragged down by technology stocks. It is trading further lower today, while other Asian stocks are trading higher.

    Fig 1 – Stock markets

      10-05-2022 11-05-2022 % change
    Dow Jones 32,161 31,834 (1.0)
    S & P 500 4,001 3,935 (1.6)
    FTSE 7,243 7,348 1.4
    Nikkei 26,167 26,214 0.2
    Hang Seng 19,634 19,825 1.0
    Shanghai Comp 3,036 3,059 0.8
    Sensex 54,365 54,088 (0.5)
    Nifty 16,240 16,167 (0.4)

    Apart from GBP and EUR, other global currencies appreciated against the dollar. DXY retreated by 0.1% after climbing to a 20-year high as US CPI print rose at a slower pace; signalling inflationary pressure may have possibly peaked. GBP fell by 0.5% amidst fears of slowdown in UK economy. INR rose by 0.1%. It is trading lower today while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.

    Fig 2 – Currencies

      10-05-2022 11-05-2022 % change
    EUR/USD 1.0529 1.0513 (0.2)
    GBP/USD 1.2316 129.97 0.4
    USD/JPY 130.45 129.97 0.4
    USD/INR 77.32 77.24 0.1
    USD/CNY 6.7347 6.7217 0.2

    Except Japan (stable) and China (higher), global yields closed lower as US CPI print indicated that Fed is unlikely to shift to an even more aggressive rate hike path in the coming months. US 10Y yield retreated back from near 3% mark to 2.92%. India’s 10Y yield fell the most by 9bps (7.22%) amidst expectation of announcement of OMO purchase/bond switch program in the next 2 weeks.

    Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield


      10-05-2022 11-05-2022 change in bps
    US 2.99 2.92 (7)
    UK 1.85 1.83 (2)
    Germany 1.00 0.99 (1)
    Japan 0.25 0.25 0
    China 2.81 2.83 2
    India 7.30 7.22 (9)

    India’s short term yields spiked sharply in RBI’s auction. Cut-off for 91-day paper rose by 93bps (to 4.96%) versus last week, for 182-day it was up by 103bps (to 5.46%) and for 364-day paper it was up by up 109bps (to 5.93%).

    Fig 4 – Short term rates

      10-05-2022 11-05-2022 % change
    Tbill-91 days 4.69 4.87 18
    Tbill-182 days 5.28 5.32 4
    Tbill-364 days 5.53 5.83 30
    G-Sec 2Y 6.28 6.22 (6)
    SONIA int rate benchmark 0.94 0.94 0
    US SOFR 0.78 0.78 0

    Fig 5 – Liquidity

    Rs tn 10-05-2022 11-05-2022 Change (Rs tn)
    Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (5.0) (4.9) 0.1
    Reverse repo 3.9 3.9 0
    Repo 0 0 0

    Fig 6 – Capital market flows

      09-05-2022 10-05-2022 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr)
    FII (US$ mn) (338.4) (650.6) (312.3)
    Debt 35.3 (201.3) (236.6)
    Equity (373.7) (449.4) (75.7)
    Mutual funds (Rs cr) (1,037.9) 670.4 1,708.4
    Debt (2,579.8) 66.3 2,646.0
    Equity 1,541.8 604.2 (937.7)

    Crude prices rose by 1.3% to US$ 112/bbl as EU is planning to phase out import of Russian refined products by end of CY22. Gold prices rose by 0.4% as recession concerns flagged by BoE boosted safe haven demand.

    Fig 7 – Commodities

      10-05-2022 11-05-2022 % change
    Brent crude (US$/bbl) 102.5 107.5 4.9
    Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,838.3 1,852.4 0.8
    Copper (US$/ MT) 9,235.8 9,358.8 1.3
    Zinc (US$/MT) 3,608.5 3,683.5 2.1
    Aluminum (US$/MT) 2,753.5 2,778.0 0.9

  • 13 May 2022

    Global growth concerns drove markets lower worldwide. Aggressive policy tightening by global central banks, Covid-19 situation in China and EU’s ban on Russian energy imports continue to cloud the global growth outlook. Demand for safe-havens such as dollar and yen increased. UK’s GDP for Mar’22 contracted unexpectedly (MoM). While US PPI moderated in Apr’22, jobless claims rose to a 3-month high. In India, CPI inflation accelerated to an 8-year high. As a result, 10Y yield jumped sharply by 7bps today. Higher inflation will weigh on consumption and growth. We expect RBI to hike rates by 25-35bps in Jun’22.


    Concerns of slowdown in global growth, monetary tightening cycle and high inflation pushed global indices lower. Hang Seng (2.2%) dropped the most. FTSE fell by 1.6% as fears of possible recession weighed on cyclical stocks. Sensex too ended in red led by subdued global cues. Power and metal stocks fell the most. However, it is trading higher today in line with other Asian stocks.

    Fig 1 – Stock markets

      11-05-2022 12-05-2022 % change
    Dow Jones 31,834 31,730 (0.3)
    S & P 500 3,935 3,930 (0.1)
    FTSE 7,348 7,233 (1.6)
    Nikkei 26,214 25,749 (1.8)
    Hang Seng 19,825 19,380 (2.2)
    Shanghai Comp 3,059 3,055 (0.1)
    Sensex 54,088 52,930 (2.1)
    Nifty 16,167 15,808 (2.2)

     JPY and DXY gained on the back of safe-haven demand as concerns over global economic outlook intensified. While JPY rose by 1.3%, DXY too gained 1% (highest since Dec’02). GBP fell by 0.4% as UK’s GDP rose less than expected in Q1CY22. INR depreciated by 0.2% amidst FPI outflows. However, it is trading higher today while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.

    Fig 2 – Currencies

      11-05-2022 12-05-2022 % change
    EUR/USD 1.0513 1.0380 (1.3)
    GBP/USD 1.2251 1.2202 (0.4)
    USD/JPY 129.97 128.34 1.3
    USD/INR 77.24 77.43 (0.2)
    USD/CNY 6.7217 6.7863 (1.0)

    Except Japan (stable) and India (higher), global yields closed lower. UK’s 10Y yield fell sharply by 17bps as GDP growth in Mar’22 contracted by 0.1%, raising fears of recession. Germany’s 10Y yield also fell by 15bps amidst tussle with Russia over ban on energy imports. US 10Y yield declined by 7bps as US jobless claims rose to a 3-month high. India’s 10Y yield rose by 3bps to 7.24%, and is trading further higher at 7.31% as CPI inflation rose more than expected in Apr’22.

    Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

      11-05-2022 12-05-2022 change in bps
    US 2.92 2.85 (7)
    UK 1.83 1.66 (17)
    Germany 0.99 0.84 (15)
    Japan 0.25 0.25 0
    China 2.83 2.81 (1)
    India 7.22 7.24 3

    Fig 4 – Short term rates

      11-05-2022 12-05-2022 % change
    Tbill-91 days 4.9 4.9 (2)
    Tbill-182 days 5.3 5.4 4
    Tbill-364 days 5.8 5.9 3
    G-Sec 2Y 6.2 6.3 6
    SONIA int rate benchmark 0.9 0.9 0
    US SOFR 0.8 0.8 0

    Fig 5 – Liquidity

    Rs tn 11-05-2022 12-05-2022 change (Rs tn)
    Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (4.9) (4.9) 0
    Reverse repo 3.9 3.9 0
    Repo 0 0 0

    Fig 6 – Capital market flows

      10-05-2022 11-05-2022 change (US$ mn/Rs cr)
      FII (US$ mn)   (650.6)   (385.7) cr) 264.9
    Debt (201.3) 3.0 204.3
    Equity (449.4) (388.7) 60.6
    Mutual funds (Rs cr) (1,037.9) 670.4 1,708.4
    Debt (2,579.8) 66.3 2,646.0
    Equity 1,541.8 604.2 (937.7)

    Crude prices fell marginally by 0.1%. Both demand (weaker global growth, China's Covid-19 situation) and supply concerns (EU's impending ban on Russian oil) continue to weigh on the outlook. Gold prices dropped amidst a rally in dollar.

    Fig 7 – Commodities

      11-05-2022 12-05-2022 % change
    Brent crude (US$/bbl) 107.5 107.5 (0.1)
    Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,852.4 1,821.8 (1.7)
    Copper (US$/ MT) 9,358.8 9,103.5 (2.7)
    Zinc (US$/MT) 3,683.5 3,539.3 (3.9)
    Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,778.0 2,742.0 (1.3)

@2022 Bank of Baroda. All rights reserved

Important disclosures are provided at the end of this report.

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The views expressed in this research note are personal views of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Bank of Baroda. Nothing contained in this publication shall constitute or be deemed to constitute an offer to sell/ purchase or as an invitation or solicitation to do so for any securities of any entity. Bank of Baroda and/ or its Affiliates and its subsidiaries make no representation as to the accuracy; completeness or reliability of any information contained herein or otherwise provided and hereby disclaim any liability with regard to the same. Bank of Baroda Group or its officers, employees, personnel, directors may be associated in a commercial or personal capacity or may have a commercial interest including as proprietary traders in or with the securities and/ or companies or issues or matters as contained in this publication and such commercial capacity or interest whether or not differing with or conflicting with this publication, shall not make or render Bank of Baroda Group liable in any manner whatsoever & Bank of Baroda Group or any of its officers, employees, personnel, directors shall not be liable for any loss, damage, liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect loss arising from the use or access of any information that may be displayed in this publication from time to time

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