Economic Weekly Wrap
12th - 16th September 2022

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  • 12 Sep 2022

    Global markets are cautious ahead of the CPI print of major economies (US, UK, Eurozone and India). US CPI print is expected to moderate to 8% in Aug’22 from 8.5% in Jul’22. However, central bank officials (St Louis and Kansas City Fed President) in their recent comments showed steadfastness to control inflation. CME Fed fund watch tool is also attaching a 90% probability for 75bps rate hike in the upcoming meeting. Even ECB in its recent meeting also signalled steeper pace of rate hike. Bundesbank President also spoke of the same. On the domestic front, CPI and IIP data will drive the market.


    Global stocks rallied amidst expectations of easing inflationary pressures. While, both CPI and PPI inflation in China eased in Aug’22, US CPI report (due this week) is also expected to show moderation (est. 8% versus 8.5% in Jul’22). Hang Seng rose the most, followed by US stocks. Sensex rose by 0.2% supported by global cues. Technology and banking stocks gained the most. It is trading further higher today, in line with other Asian stocks.

    Fig 1 – Stock markets

      08-09-2022 09-09-2022 % change
    Dow Jones 31,775 32,152 1.2
    S & P 500 4,006 4,067 1.5
    FTSE 7,262 7,351 1.2
    Nikkei 28,065 28,215 0.5
    Hang Seng 18,855 19,362 2.7
    Shanghai Comp 3,236 3,262 0.8
    Sensex 59,688 59,793 0.2
    Nifty 17,799 17,833 0.2

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Global currencies gained against a weaker dollar. DXY fell by 0.6% as investors await US CPI report. After falling to a 24-year low, JPY gained 1.2% as BoJ Governor cautioned against rapid depreciation. EUR edged up above the dollar parity mark supported by ECB’s rate hike. INR appreciated by 0.2% supported by FPI inflows. However it is trading weaker today; in line with other Asian currencies.

    Fig 2 – Currencies

      08-09-2022 09-09-2022 % change
    EUR/USD 0.9997 1.0042 0.5
    GBP/USD 1.1504 1.1589 0.7
    USD/JPY 144.11 142.47 1.2
    USD/INR 79.72 79.59 0.2
    USD/CNY 6.9576 6.9265 0.4

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Global yields closed mixed. Investors remained cautious tracking major central bank official’s comments and Russia’s threat to halt oil and gas exports. While UK’S 10Y yield dropped the most by 5bps, Japan’s 10Y yield closed stable. India’s 10Y yield on the other hand rose by 4bps (7.11%), following jump in oil prices. In the current auction as well, RBI did not accept any bids for the 2028FRB. It is trading higher at 7.17% today, ahead of CPI data.

    Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

      08-09-2022 09-09-2022 change in bps
    US 3.32 3.31 (1)
    UK 3.15 3.10 (5)
    Germany 1.72 1.70 (2)
    Japan 0.25 0.25 0
    China 2.63 2.64 1
    India 7.08 7.11 4

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Fig 4 – Short term rates

      08-09-2022 09-09-2022 change in bps
    Tbill-91 days 5.62 5.62 0
    Tbill-182 days 6.04 6.06 2
    Tbill-364 days 6.30 6.32 2
    G-Sec 2Y 6.51 6.50 (1)
    SONIA int rate benchmark 1.69 1.69 0
    US SOFR 2.28 2.28 0

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Fig 5 – Liquidity

    Rs tn 08-09-2022 09-09-2022 change (Rs tn)
    Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (1.3) (1.0) (0.3)
    Reverse repo 1.1 0.4 (0.7)
    Repo 0 0 0

    Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research


    Fig 6 – Capital market flows

      07-09-2022 08-09-2022 change (US$ mn/Rs cr)
    FII (US$ mn) 38.0 333.7 295.8
    Debt 24.1 (22.3) (46.3)
    Equity 13.9 356.0 342.1
    Mutual funds (Rs cr) (3,627.9) 3,042.5 6,670.4
    Debt (1,255.6) 2,285.2 3,540.8
    Equity (2,372.3) 757.3 3,129.6

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research; Note-mutual fund data pertains to 16 and 17 May 2022


    Crude oil rose by 4.1% to US$ 92.8/bbl amidst reports that Russia might halt oil and gas exports, which aggravated fears of tighter supply.

    Fig 7 – Commodities

      08-09-2022 09-09-2022 % change
    Brent crude (US$/bbl) 89.2 92.8 4.1
    Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,708.5 1,716.8 0.5
    Copper (US$/ MT) 7,919.0 7,924.0 0.1
    Zinc (US$/MT) 3,150.5 3,183.0 1.0
    Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,267.5 2,286.0 0.8

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

  • 13 Sep 2022

    Global equities and currencies rallied ahead of US CPI print which is expected to moderate slightly to 8% in Aug’22 (8.5% in Jul’22). However, policy makers are expected to continue with their aggressive rate hikes. US futures are already pricing in 75bps rate hike in the coming policy. Germany’s IFO institute has revised downward its CY23 growth forecast to -0.3% from 3.5% earlier. Even inflation forecast has been revised upward to 9.3% from 6%. Elsewhere in Japan, PPI rose by 9% (est.: 8.9%). UK’s industrial production fell by 0.3%, albeit remaining better than est.:+0.3%. In China, call for more policy support to boost the consumption demand of the economy continued. On domestic front, CPI remained worrisome.


    Global stocks continued their rally amidst an improvement in global risk- sentiment. US stocks rose, ahead of CPI report which is expected to show easing inflationary pressures. FTSE edged up by 1.7% led by gains in banking and mining stocks. Following global cues, Sensex too rose by 0.5%. Real estate and consumer durable stocks were the major gainers. It is trading further higher today, in line with other Asian stocks.

    Fig 1 – Stock markets

      09-09-2022 12-09-2022 % change
    Dow Jones 32,152 32,381 0.7
    S & P 500 4,067 4,110 1.1
    FTSE 7,351 7,473 1.7
    Nikkei 28,215 28,542 1.2
    Hang Seng 18,855 19,362 2.7
    Shanghai Comp 3,236 3,262 0.8
    Sensex 59,793 60,115 0.5
    Nifty 17,833 17,936 0.6

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Except JPY, other global currencies registered gains against the dollar. DXY fell by 0.6% as the New York Fed’s survey showed a decline in consumers’ inflation expectations. JPY fell further even as officials mulled steps to prevent a sharp slide in the exchange rate. EUR gained 0.8% amidst expectations of further rate hikes by ECB. INR appreciated by 0.1%, led by positive FPI inflows. It is trading further stronger today; in line with other Asian currencies.

    Fig 2 – Currencies

      09-09-2022 12-09-2022 % change
    EUR/USD 1.0042 1.0122 0.8
    GBP/USD 1.1589 1.1683 0.8
    USD/JPY 142.47 142.84 (0.3)
    USD/INR 79.59 79.53 0.1
    USD/CNY 6.9576 6.9265 0.4

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Global yields closed mixed. US 10Y yield rose by 5bps as market has already priced in 75bps rate hike which might be forthcoming. Germany’s 10Y yield on the other hand, fell by 4bps amidst worries over contraction in growth. India’s 10Y yield rose by 2bps (7.14%), following jump in oil prices and ahead of CPI print. It is trading higher at 7.16% today, as CPI data rose more than expected by 7% (est.: 6.9%) in Aug’22.

    Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

      09-09-2022 12-09-2022 change in bps
    US 3.31 3.36 5
    UK 3.10 3.08 (1)
    Germany 1.70 1.65 (4)
    Japan 0.25 0.25 0
    China 2.63 2.64 1
    India 7.11 7.14 2

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Fig 4 – Short term rates

      09-09-2022 12-09-2022 change in bps
    Tbill-91 days 5.62 5.65 3
    Tbill-182 days 6.06 6.06 0
    Tbill-364 days 6.32 6.34 2
    G-Sec 2Y 6.50 6.61 11
    SONIA int rate benchmark 1.69 1.69 0
    US SOFR 2.28 2.28 0

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Fig 5 – Liquidity

    Rs tn 09-09-2022 12-09-2022 change (Rs tn)
    Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (1.0) (0.6) 0.4
    Reverse repo 0.4 0.8 0.4
    Repo 0 0 0

    Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research


    Fig 6 – Capital market flows

      08-09-2022 09-09-2022 change (US$ mn/Rs cr)
    FII (US$ mn) 333.7 291.8 (42.0)
    Debt (22.3) 6.1 28.4
    Equity 356.0 285.7 (70.3)
    Mutual funds (Rs cr) 152.6 928.3 775.7
    Debt (107.6) 446.3 553.9
    Equity 260.2 482.1 221.9

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research; Note-mutual fund data pertains to 16 and 17 May 2022


    Crude oil rose by 1.2% to US$ 94/bbl as supply concerns persist over Iran’s nuclear deal and embargo on Russian oil shipments.

    Fig 7 – Commodities

      09-09-2022 12-09-2022 % change
    Brent crude (US$/bbl) 92.8 94.0 1.2
    Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,716.8 1,724.5 0.4
    Copper (US$/ MT) 7,924.0 8,079.5 2.0
    Zinc (US$/MT) 3,183.0 3,209.8 0.8
    Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,286.0 2,283.0 (0.1)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

  • 14 Sep 2022

    US CPI data inched up by 0.1% in Aug’22 against est. 0.1% decline, on MoM basis. CPI excluding food and energy rose even sharply by 0.6%. The major contributors were shelter and medical care expenses. CME Fed watch tool is now pricing in 100bps rate hike with 36% probability which was not expected earlier. The gap between US 10Y and 2Y paper also widened, signalling recession. Germany’s Zew expectation survey results also reflected disappointment. Elsewhere, in Japan, policymakers reiterated that ‘necessary action’ is required wrt yen movement in the wake of policy divergence. On domestic front, WPI data is awaited.


    Global stocks ended mixed. While Asian stocks were mostly higher, stocks elsewhere declined. US stocks saw a sharp selloff after inflation rose more than expected in Aug’22. S&P 500 fell the most by 4.3%, followed by Dow which fell by 3.9%. FTSE too fell by 1.2% as UK’s employment report was weaker than expected. Sensex rose by 0.8% led by gains in metal and capital goods stocks. Sensex, along with other Asian markets is trading in deep red today.

    Fig 1 – Stock markets

      12-09-2022 13-09-2022 % change
    Dow Jones 32,381 31,105 (3.9)
    S & P 500 4,110 3,933 (4.3)
    FTSE 7,473 7,386 (1.2)
    Nikkei 28,542 28,615 0.3
    Hang Seng 19,362 19,327 (0.2)
    Shanghai Comp 3,262 3,264 0.1
    Sensex 60,115 60,571 0.8
    Nifty 17,936 18,070 0.7

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Except INR, other global currencies fell. Higher than expected US inflation print reignited hopes of aggressive Fed tightening. As a result, DXY surged by 1.4%, registering its biggest single day gain since Mar’20. EUR fell by 1.5% as Germany’s economic sentiment index slipped in Sep’22. INR on the other hand appreciated by 0.5% to a ~1-month high supported by lower oil prices. However it is trading weaker today; in line with other Asian currencies.

    Fig 2 – Currencies

      12-09-2022 13-09-2022 % change
    EUR/USD 1.0122 0.9970 (1.5)
    GBP/USD 1.1683 1.1493 (1.6)
    USD/JPY 142.84 144.58 (1.2)
    USD/INR 79.53 79.15 0.5
    USD/CNY 6.9265 6.9305 (0.1)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Except Japan and India (lower), global yields closed higher. UK’s 10Y yield rose at the sharpest pace by 9bps, followed by Germany (+8bps) and US (+5bps). The sell-off in the bond market was on account of overheated inflation print in the US, which calls for aggressive pace of rate hike delivery. US 2Y yield is at its highest since 1 Nov 2007. India’s 10Y yield fell by 6bps (7.08%), amidst expectation of inclusion in the Global Bond Index. It is trading higher at 7.12% today, ahead of WPI data.

    Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

      12-09-2022 13-09-2022 change in bps
    US 3.36 3.41 5
    UK 3.08 3.17 9
    Germany 1.65 1.73 8
    Japan 0.25 0.25 (1)
    China 2.64 2.65 1
    India 7.14 7.08 (6)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Fig 4 – Short term rates

      12-09-2022 13-09-2022 change in bps
    Tbill-91 days 5.65 5.64 (1)
    Tbill-182 days 6.06 6.07 1
    Tbill-364 days 6.34 6.33 (1)
    G-Sec 2Y 6.61 6.61 0
    SONIA int rate benchmark 1.69 1.69 0
    US SOFR 2.28 2.28 0

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Fig 5 – Liquidity

    Rs tn 12-09-2022 13-09-2022 change (Rs tn)
    Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (0.6) (0.5) 0.1
    Reverse repo 0.8 0.8 0
    Repo 0 0 0

    Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research


    Fig 6 – Capital market flows

      09-09-2022 12-09-2022 change (US$ mn/Rs cr)
    FII (US$ mn) 291.8 176.8 (115.0)
    Debt 6.1 (36.2) (42.2)
    Equity 285.7 212.9 (72.8)
    Mutual funds (Rs cr) 152.6 928.3 775.7
    Debt (107.6) 446.3 553.9
    Equity 260.2 482.1 221.9

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research; Note-mutual fund data pertains to 16 and 17 May 2022


    Crude oil prices fell by 0.9% to US$ 93/bbl as demand outlook remains blurred.

    Fig 7 – Commodities

      12-09-2022 13-09-2022 % change
    Brent crude (US$/bbl) 94.0 93.2 (0.9)
    Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,724.5 1,702.2 (1.3)
    Copper (US$/ MT) 8,079.5 7,994.3 (1.1)
    Zinc (US$/MT) 3,209.8 3,250.0 1.3
    Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,283.0 2,313.0 1.3

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

  • 16 Sep 2022

    Globa currencies depreciated while sell off in the bond market continued as market is fully pricing in a 75bps rate hike by Fed in the coming policy. Even probability of 100bps rate hike has risen to 26% against 0% earlier. As a result, gold prices dropped to its lowest since Apr’20, amidst strengthening DXY. On macro data front, US jobless claims fell by 213K against est.: 227K, reflecting tighter labour market conditions. Retail sales on the other hand rose by 0.3%, on MoM basis (est.: -0.1%) supported by falling pump prices. Industrial production fell by 0.2% (est.: 0%) reflecting slowdown in the economy. In China, macro prints (industrial production, YoY: +4.2% versus est.: 3.8%, retail sales, YoY: +5.4% versus est.: 3.3%) remained comparatively better. On domestic front, yields inched up as OIS rates rose on fear of aggressive rate hike by US Fed.


    Global stocks ended mixed. US stocks edged down amidst increased expectations of an aggressive rate hike by Fed. On the other hand, Hang Seng, Nikkei and FTSE ended marginally up. Sensex fell by 0.7% led by a slide in technology and metal stocks. It is trading further lower today, in line with other Asian markets.

    Fig 1 – Stock markets

      14-09-2022 15-09-2022 % change
    Dow Jones 31,135 30,962 (0.6)
    S & P 500 3,946 3,901 (1.1)
    FTSE 7,277 7,282 0.1
    Nikkei 27,819 27,876 0.2
    Hang Seng 18,847 18,930 0.4
    Shanghai Comp 3,238 3,200 (1.2)
    Sensex 60,347 59,934 (0.7)
    Nifty 18,004 17,877 (0.7)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Except EUR, other global currencies depreciated. DXY rose by 0.1% supported by strong US retail sales data. CNY ended 0.5% lower (after breaching the 7/$ briefly) amidst growth concerns. JPY too depreciated by 0.3% as Japan’s trade deficit surged to a record-high. INR depreciated by 0.3% following global cues. It is trading further weaker today; in line with other Asian currencies.

    Fig 2 – Currencies

      14-09-2022 15-09-2022 % change
    EUR/USD 0.9981 1.0001 0.2
    GBP/USD 1.1539 1.1467 (0.6)
    USD/JPY 143.08 143.52 (0.3)
    USD/INR 79.44 79.70 (0.3)
    USD/CNY 6.9618 6.9946 (0.5)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Except Japan and China (stable), global yields closed higher. Investors are cautious ahead of major central bank’s policy decision (US Fed, BoE and BoJ) in the coming week. Germany’s 10Y yield rose the most (+5bps) followed by US (+4bps). India’s 10Y yield rose by 8bps (7.20%), as OIS rates inched up on expectation of faster pace of rate hike by US Fed. It is trading higher at 7.24% today, ahead of the auction.

    Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

      14-09-2022 15-09-2022 change in bps
    US 3.40 3.45 4
    UK 3.13 3.17 3
    Germany 1.72 1.77 5
    Japan 0.26 0.26 0
    China 2.67 2.66 0
    India 7.12 7.20 8

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Fig 4 – Short term rates

      14-09-2022 15-09-2022 change in bps
    Tbill-91 days 5.72 5.73 1
    Tbill-182 days 6.16 6.17 1
    Tbill-364 days 6.39 6.39 0
    G-Sec 2Y 6.66 6.65 (1)
    SONIA int rate benchmark 1.69 1.69 0
    US SOFR 2.28 2.27 (1)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Fig 5 – Liquidity

    Rs tn 14-09-2022 15-09-2022 change (Rs tn)
    Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (0.7) (0.5) 0.2
    Reverse repo 0.8 0.8 0
    Repo 0 0 0

    Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research


    Fig 6 – Capital market flows

      13-09-2022 14-09-2022 change (US$ mn/Rs cr)
    FII (US$ mn) 672.4 (142.3) (814.7)
    Debt 93.9 30.4 (63.5)
    Equity 578.5 (172.7) (751.2)
    Mutual funds (Rs cr) 152.6 928.3 775.7
    Debt (107.6) 446.3 553.9
    Equity 260.2 482.1 221.9

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research; Note-mutual fund data pertains to 16 and 17 May 2022


    Crude oil prices fell sharply by 3.5% to (US$ 91/bbl) amidst fears of muted demand as IMF and World Bank flagged risks to the growth outlook.

    Fig 7 – Commodities

      14-09-2022 15-09-2022 % change
    Brent crude (US$/bbl) 94.1 90.8 (3.5)
    Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,697.3 1,665.1 (1.9)
    Copper (US$/ MT) 7,893.5 7,848.8 (0.6)
    Zinc (US$/MT) 3,253.8 3,214.0 (1.2)
    Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,270.5 2,307.5 1.6

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

@2022 Bank of Baroda. All rights reserved

Important disclosures are provided at the end of this report.

Disclaimer

The views expressed in this research note are personal views of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Bank of Baroda. Nothing contained in this publication shall constitute or be deemed to constitute an offer to sell/ purchase or as an invitation or solicitation to do so for any securities of any entity. Bank of Baroda and/ or its Affiliates and its subsidiaries make no representation as to the accuracy; completeness or reliability of any information contained herein or otherwise provided and hereby disclaim any liability with regard to the same. Bank of Baroda Group or its officers, employees, personnel, directors may be associated in a commercial or personal capacity or may have a commercial interest including as proprietary traders in or with the securities and/ or companies or issues or matters as contained in this publication and such commercial capacity or interest whether or not differing with or conflicting with this publication, shall not make or render Bank of Baroda Group liable in any manner whatsoever & Bank of Baroda Group or any of its officers, employees, personnel, directors shall not be liable for any loss, damage, liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect loss arising from the use or access of any information that may be displayed in this publication from time to time

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