Economic Weekly Wrap
12 June 2023 - 16 June 2023
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12 June 2023
Global markets remained cautious ahead of a slew of macro data releases (inflation, industrial production and retail sales prints in major economies) and central bank meetings in the US, EU and Japan. The CME Fed watch tool is pricing in a 73.6% probability of a pause in Fed fund rate. This has led S&P 500 to reach its new high in CY23. On the other hand, markets are pricing in a 25bps rate hike by ECB. For BoJ, weakness in wage growth would prompt for continuation of the current rates. Even the recent PPI reading falling by 0.7% in May’23 on MoM basis also enumerate the same. In China, PBOC’s Governor reiterated his confidence of reaching the growth target of 5% for CY23 amidst a delayed pickup in demand. On domestic front, all eyes will be on CPI (BoB est.: 4.5%) and IIP (1.2%) data releases.
Apart from UK and India, stock markets elsewhere rose amidst expectations of a pause in the rate hike cycle by the Fed this week. In US, S&P 500 rose by 0.1%, ~20% higher than its low in Oct’22, signalling the start of a bull market. Nikkei rose the most by 2% supported by gains in technology and auto shares. Sensex dipped by 0.4%, as real estate and auto stocks fell. However, it is trading higher today, while other Asian stocks are trading mixed.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
8-06-2023 9-06-2023 % change Dow Jones 33,834 33,877 0.1 S & P 500 4,294 4,299 0.1 FTSE 7,600 7,562 (0.5) Nikkei 31,641 32,265 2.0 Hang Seng 19,299 19,390 0.5 Shanghai Comp 3,214 3,231 0.6 Sensex 62,849 62,626 (0.4) Nifty 18,635 18,563 (0.4) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except GBP and INR, other global currencies ended weaker against the dollar. Investor sentiments were subdued ahead of key central bank meetings (Fed, ECB and BoJ). While DXY rose by 0.2%, both EUR and JPY depreciated by 0.3%. INR appreciated by 0.1% as oil prices inched down. However, it is trading a tad weaker today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
8-06-2023 9-06-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0782 1.0749 (0.3) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2560 1.2572 0.1 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 138.92 139.40 (0.3) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.57 82.47 0.1 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1118 7.1305 (0.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields closed mixed. Market sentiments remained cautious ahead of key central bank policy decisions. US 10Y yield inched up by 2bps, while Germany and China’s 10Y yield fell by 3 and 2bps respectively. Market is also expecting more monetary stimulus in terms of rate cut from PBOC. India’s 10Y yield rose a tad by 1bps. It is trading at 7.03% today, ahead of major macro releases.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
8-06-2023 9-06-2023 change in bps US 3.72 3.74 2 UK 4.23 4.24 1 Germany 2.40 2.38 (3) Japan 0.44 0.43 (1) China 2.71 2.69 (2) India 7.02 7.04 1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
8-06-2023 9-06-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.74 6.77 3 Tbill-182 days 6.82 6.87 5 Tbill-364 days 6.85 6.86 1 G-Sec 2Y 6.90 6.88 (3) India OIS-2M 6.60 6.58 (2) India OIS-9M 6.66 6.64 (3) SONIA int rate benchmark 4.43 4.43 0 US SOFR 5.05 5.05 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 8-06-2023 9-06-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (2.0) (1.7) 0.3 Reverse repo 1.5 0.5 (1.0) Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
7-05-2023 8-05-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 193.0 40.7 (152.3) Debt 18.1 (33.5) (51.6) Equity 175.0 74.2 (100.7) Mutual funds (Rs cr) 662.4 (30.6) (693.0) Debt 1,344.9 (327.1) (1,672.0) Equity (682.5) 296.5 978.9 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Mutual funds data as of 6 and 7th Jun 2023
Oil prices declined by 1.5% amidst increased production in the US.
Fig 7 – Commodities
8-06-2023 9-06-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 76.0 74.8 (1.5) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,965.5 1,961.2 (0.2) Copper (US$/ MT) 8,336.0 8,349.0 0.2 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,407.0 2,401.0 (0.2) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,254.5 2,268.0 0.6 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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13 June 2023
In an effort to provide stimulus to the economy, PBOC has reduced the 7 day reverse repo rate by 10bps to 1.9%. This was the first reduction since Aug’22. Elsewhere in the US, the New York Fed survey showed inflation outlook for the 1- year horizon softening by 0.3% to 4.1% This is the lowest since May’21. CME Fed watch tool is pricing in an 81.5% probability of pause in policy rate which was 73.6% yesterday. Even the budget deficit figure in the US in May’23 rose to US$ 240bn from est. US$ 236 bn deficit. On domestic front, India’s CPI provided comfort especially on food inflation front. IIP also surprised positively, supported by manufacturing sector.
Except Shanghai Comp, other global stocks ended higher. Expectations of a pause in rate by Fed this week (probability of 81.5% as per CME FedWatch Tool) and easing inflation in US (est. 4% from 4.9%), have helped lift investor sentiments. S&P 500 and Nikkei continued to lead the rally. Sensex rose by 0.2%, supported by gains in real estate and technology stocks. It is trading further higher today, in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
9-06-2023 12-06-2023 % change Dow Jones 33,877 34,066 0.6 S & P 500 4,299 4,339 0.9 FTSE 7,562 7,571 0.1 Nikkei 32,265 32,434 0.5 Hang Seng 19,390 19,404 0.1 Shanghai Comp 3,231 3,229 (0.1) Sensex 62,626 62,725 0.2 Nifty 18,563 18,602 0.2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
DXY rose by another 0.1% as markets await US CPI data and the outcome of the Fed policy meet. GBP fell the most by 0.5% tracking political developments despite hawkish comments by an MPC member. JPY too depreciated as BoJ is widely expected to maintain its dovish stance. INR closed flat. However, it is trading weaker today, while other Asian currencies are trading mostly higher.
Fig 2 – Currencies
9-06-2023 12-06-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0749 1.0757 0.1 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2572 1.2509 (0.5) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 139.40 139.60 (0.1) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.47 82.43 0 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1305 7.1464 (0.2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields closed mixed. UK’s 10Y yield rose the most by 10bps amidst comments from BoE’s MPC member Haskel about the need to raise interest rates from its current level. 10Y yield in the US and Japan remained stable ahead of central bank policy decisions. India’s 10Y yield fell by 2bps. It is trading lower at 7.0% today, supported by moderation in CPI data.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
9-06-2023 12-06-2023 change in bps US 3.74 3.74 0 UK 4.24 4.34 10 Germany 2.38 2.39 1 Japan 0.43 0.43 0 China 2.69 2.69 0 India 7.04 7.02 (2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
9-06-2023 12-06-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.74 6.77 3 Tbill-182 days 6.82 6.87 5 Tbill-364 days 6.85 6.86 1 G-Sec 2Y 6.90 6.88 (3) India OIS-2M 6.60 6.58 (2) India OIS-9M 6.66 6.64 (3) SONIA int rate benchmark 4.43 4.43 0 US SOFR 5.05 5.05 - Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 9-06-2023 12-06-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (1.7) (1.6) 0.1 Reverse repo 0.5 0.6 0.1 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
8-06-2023 9-06-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 40.7 (3.9) (44.6) Debt (33.5) 12.3 45.8 Equity 74.2 (16.2) (90.4) Mutual funds (Rs cr) (30.6) 798.2 828.8 Debt (327.1) 1,207.2 1,534.3 Equity 296.5 (409.0) (705.5) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Mutual funds data as of 6 and 7th Jun 2023
Oil prices dipped by another 3.9% led by demand concerns.
Fig 7 – Commodities
9-06-2023 12-06-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 74.8 71.8 (3.9) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,961.2 1,957.8 (0.2) Copper (US$/ MT) 8,349.0 8,282.0 (0.8) Zinc (US$/MT) 2,401.0 2,347.3 (2.2) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,268.0 2,228.0 (1.8) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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14 June 2023
In the US, CPI print dropped to its lowest since Mar’21 recording a print of 4% in May’23 on YoY basis (est.:4.1%) and compared to 4.9% in Apr’23. This was led by falling gasoline prices. On MoM basis, CPI moderated to 0.1% in May’23 compared to 0.4% in Apr’23. Core on the other hand remained stickier at 5.3%, driven by used car and shelter prices. CME Fed watch tool is now attaching a 94.2% probability of a pause by Fed. In UK, labour market conditions remained tight with employment climbing above its pre-pandemic level. Even the average weekly earnings firmed up. BoE Governor also reiterated his concerns about elevated inflation against this backdrop. On domestic front, news reports suggested that government will review the PLI scheme by end of this fiscal.
Global stocks ended higher as expectations of a pause by the Fed were boosted after US CPI data. Surprise cut in short-term borrowing rate by PBOC to support growth, also lifted investor sentiments. Nikkei rose the most by 1.8% to a 33-year high, led by a rally in technology and auto stocks. Sensex rose 0.7%, as real estate and consumer durables stocks posted solid gains. However, it is trading lower today, while other Asian stocks are mostly higher.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
12-06-2023 13-06-2023 % change Dow Jones 34,066 34,212 0.4 S & P 500 4,339 4,369 0.7 FTSE 7,571 7,595 0.3 Nikkei 32,434 33,019 1.8 Hang Seng 19,404 19,521 0.6 Shanghai Comp 3,229 3,234 0.1 Sensex 62,725 63,143 0.7 Nifty 18,602 18,716 0.6 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies ended mixed. DXY fell by 0.3% as US CPI data bolstered the case for a pause in rates. CNY depreciated by 0.3% to a ~6-month low as PBOC cut its 7-day reverse repo rate. GBP rose by 0.8% as stronger wage growth has raised the possibility of further rate hikes. INR appreciated by 0.1%. It is trading further stronger today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
12-06-2023 13-06-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0757 1.0793 0.3 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2509 1.2612 0.8 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 139.60 140.22 (0.4) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.43 82.38 0.1 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1464 7.1662 (0.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields closed mixed. UK’s 10Y yield rose by 10bps amidst hawkish comments from BoE Governor and supported by tighter labour market data. US 10Y yield rose by 8bps as core still remained sticky. China’s 10Y yield fell by 6bps as May’23 credit report showed some softening in activity. India’s 10Y yield fell by 2bps. It is trading lower at 7.01% today, ahead of WPI data.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
12-06-2023 13-06-2023 change in bps US 3.74 3.81 8 UK 4.34 4.43 10 Germany 2.39 2.42 4 Japan 0.43 0.43 (1) China 2.69 2.63 (6) India 7.02 7.00 (2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
12-06-2023 13-06-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.83 6.84 1 Tbill-182 days 6.86 6.86 0 Tbill-364 days 6.86 6.86 0 G-Sec 2Y 6.91 6.93 2 India OIS-2M 6.57 6.58 1 India OIS-9M 6.62 6.61 (1) SONIA int rate benchmark 4.43 4.43 0 US SOFR 5.05 5.05 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 12-06-2023 13-06-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (1.6) (1.6) 0 Reverse repo 0.6 0.5 (0.1) Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
09-06-2023 12-06-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (3.9) (43.6) (39.7) Debt 12.3 28.5 16.2 Equity (16.2) (72.1) (55.9) Mutual funds (Rs cr) 433.7 840.0 406.3 Debt 842.7 (44.0) (886.7) Equity (409.0) 884.0 1,293.0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Mutual funds data as of 6 and 7th Jun 2023
Oil prices inched up by 3.4% amidst hopes of demand recovery from China.
Fig 7 – Commodities
12-06-2023 13-06-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 71.8 74.3 3.4 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,957.8 1,943.7 (0.7) Copper (US$/ MT) 8,282.0 8,450.0 2.0 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,347.3 2,383.5 1.5 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,228.0 2,232.0 0.2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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15 June 2023
US Fed in its latest meeting underwent a pause in its 500bps hiking cycle. However, the undertone remained hawkish. Even the median Fed fund rate projection for CY23 has been raised by 50bps to 5.6% from 5.1% earlier. Real GDP projections for CY23 have been revised upward to 1% from 0.4%, while core PCE is expected to inch up to 3.9% from 3.6% earlier. In a separate print, PPI inched down on a sequential basis. Elsewhere, in UK, GDP grew at a robust pace in Apr’23. In China, the 1Y medium term lending rate was reduced to 2.65% from 2.75% earlier. Other macro indicators of the region such as retail sales, fixed assets and industrial production showed some degree of slowdown in the economy. On domestic front, WPI dropped to its 7.5 year low in May’23.
Global stocks ended mixed. While Fed paused its rate hike cycle as expected, it signalled two more possible rate hikes this year. While Dow Jones fell by 0.7%, S&P 500 rose by 0.1%. Nikkei advanced for the 4th straight session and rose by 1.5%. Sensex also inched up by 0.1%, led by gains in metal and oil and gas stocks. However, it is trading lower today, in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
13-06-2023 14-06-2023 % change Dow Jones 34,212 33,979 (0.7) S & P 500 4,369 4,373 0.1 FTSE 7,595 7,603 0.1 Nikkei 33,019 33,502 1.5 Hang Seng 19,521 19,408 (0.6) Shanghai Comp 3,234 3,229 (0.1) Sensex 63,143 63,229 0.1 Nifty 18,716 18,756 0.2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies closed stronger against the dollar. DXY fell by 0.4% as Fed delivered an expected pause in its rate hike cycle. Amongst major currencies, GBP rose the most by 0.4%, as UK’s GDP rose by 0.2% in Apr’23 (-0.3% in Mar’23). INR strengthened to a 1-month high supported by lower oil prices and FPI inflows. However, it is trading weaker today, in line with its Asian peers.
Fig 2 – Currencies
13-06-2023 14-06-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0793 1.0830 0.3 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2612 1.2664 0.4 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 140.22 140.09 0.1 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.38 82.11 0.3 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1662 7.1618 0.1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields closed mixed. US 10Y yield fell by 3bps as Fed underwent a pause in its policy rate. Germany’s 10Y yield rose by 3bps ahead of ECB’s policy decision where a 25bps hike is anticipated. China’s 10Y yield closed stable as cautiousness prevailed amidst all stimulus measures. India’s 10Y yield rose a tad by 1bps. It is trading at 7.03% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
13-06-2023 14-06-2023 change in bps US 3.81 3.79 (3) UK 4.43 4.39 (4) Germany 2.42 2.45 3 Japan 0.43 0.43 1 China 2.63 2.62 (0) India 7.00 7.01 1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
13-06-2023 14-06-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.84 6.77 (7) Tbill-182 days 6.86 6.89 3 Tbill-364 days 6.86 6.89 3 G-Sec 2Y 6.93 6.94 2 India OIS-2M 6.58 6.59 1 India OIS-9M 6.61 6.64 2 SONIA int rate benchmark 4.43 4.43 (0) US SOFR 5.05 5.05 - Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 13-06-2023 14-06-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (1.6) (1.5) 0.1 Reverse repo 0.5 0.8 0.3 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
12-06-2023 13-06-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (43.6) 274.8 318.4 Debt 28.5 7.7 (20.8) Equity (72.1) 267.1 339.2 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 433.7 840.0 406.3 Debt 842.7 (44.0) (886.7) Equity (409.0) 884.0 1,293.0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Mutual funds data as of 6 and 7th Jun 2023
Oil prices fell by 1.5% led by an increase in US crude stocks.
Fig 7 – Commodities
13-06-2023 14-06-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 74.3 73.2 (1.5) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,943.7 1,942.5 (0.1) Copper (US$/ MT) 8,450.0 8,509.3 0.7 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,383.5 2,488.0 4.4 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,232.0 2,253.5 1.0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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16 June 2023
Policy decisions remained divergent with ECB raising policy rate by 25bps and hinting at being sufficiently restrictive on the back of elevated inflation. Staff projections place inflation above target in CY25 as well. We do foresee another 25bps hike in the coming policy. BoJ on the other hand, remained fairly dovish keeping policy rate unchanged and hinting at more stimulus in near term. In US, macro data prints, painted a mixed picture. Advance retail sales and core retail sales picked up sequentially in May’23. Jobless claims rose more than expected, reflecting some degree of softening. Even industrial production dropped on a MoM basis. In India, trade deficit rose to a 5-month high at US$ 22.1bn in May’23 (US$ 15.1bn in Apr’23) as exports (-10.3%) contracted at a much faster rate than imports (-6.6%).
Global indices ended mixed. Stocks in US rose the most as retail sales surprised positively. Shanghai Comp rose by 0.7% on expectations of more stimulus to support the economy. After surging to a more than 30 year high, Japan’s Nikkei paused its rally and fell by 0.1%. In India, Sensex fell by 0.5%. Banking and real estate stocks led the losses. However, it is trading higher today, in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
14-06-2023 15-06-2023 % change Dow Jones 33,979 34,408 1.3 S & P 500 4,373 4,426 1.2 FTSE 7,603 7,628 0.3 Nikkei 33,502 33,485 (0.1) Hang Seng 19,408 19,829 2.2 Shanghai Comp 3,229 3,253 0.7 Sensex 63,229 62,918 (0.5) Nifty 18,756 18,688 (0.4) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies closed mixed. EUR rose by 1.1% after ECB raised policy rates and signalled more rate hikes. GBP also rose by 0.8% as expectations of more rate hikes by BoE have strengthened. As a result, DXY fell by 0.8%, despite positive macro data. INR depreciated by 0.1% as oil prices inched up. However, it is trading stronger today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
14-06-2023 15-06-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0830 1.0945 1.1 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2664 1.2784 0.9 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 140.09 140.29 (0.1) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.11 82.18 (0.1) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1618 7.1210 0.6 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields closed mixed. US 10Y yield fell by 7bps as jobless claims data showed some softening in the labour market. Germany’s 10Y yield on the other hand, rose by 5bps amidst ECB President’s hawkish comments. India’s 10Y yield rose by 3bps, following Fed’s hawkish pause and on anticipation that global yields might firm up. It is trading stable today, ahead of auction results.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
14-06-2023 15-06-2023 change in bps US 3.79 3.72 (7) UK 4.39 4.38 (1) Germany 2.45 2.50 5 Japan 0.43 0.43 (0) China 2.62 2.67 4 India 7.01 7.04 3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
14-06-2023 15-06-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.77 6.72 (5) Tbill-182 days 6.89 6.88 (1) Tbill-364 days 6.89 6.89 - G-Sec 2Y 6.94 6.96 2 India OIS-2M 6.59 6.62 3 India OIS-9M 6.64 6.65 2 SONIA int rate benchmark 4.43 4.43 0 US SOFR 5.05 5.05 - Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 14-06-2023 15-06-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (1.5) (1.6) (0.1) Reverse repo 0.8 0.5 (0.3) Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
13-06-2023 14-06-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 274.8 223.8 (51.0) Debt 7.7 (2.5) (10.3) Equity 267.1 226.3 (40.8) Mutual funds (Rs cr) 840.0 2,084.3 1,244.3 Debt (44.0) 548.1 592.1 Equity 884.0 1,536.2 652.2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Mutual funds data as of 6 and 7th Jun 2023
Oil prices rose by 3.4% led by a jump in refinery runs in China.
Fig 7 – Commodities
14-06-2023 15-06-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 73.2 75.7 3.4 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,942.5 1,958.0 0.8 Copper (US$/ MT) 8,509.3 8,556.0 0.5 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,488.0 2,480.5 (0.3) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,253.5 2,249.5 (0.2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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