Economic Weekly Wrap
10 October 2022 - 14 October 2022
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10 Oct 2022
Unemployment rate in the US edged down to 3.5% in Sep’22 from 3.7% in Aug’22, indicating tighter labour market conditions. This in turn strengthened expectations of a more aggressive rate hike by US Fed. As per CME Fed watch tool, traders are pricing in a 75bps rate hike with 78.1% probability attached to it. New York Fed President also spoke of more action on central bank’s part to control inflation. Even Chicago Fed President said that the policy rate is likely to be 4.5-4.75% by spring CY23. Elsewhere in Germany, recession fear looms as high frequency data such as retail sales and industrial production tanked in Aug’22. On domestic front, CPI data will be closely watched. Any print above 7% will be discomforting to domestic yields.
Global stocks witnessed a sharp sell-off after data showed that US labour market conditions remained strong, bolstering the case for further rate hikes by the Fed. Stocks in the US fell the most with both S&P 500 and Dow Jones shedding more than 2% over US-China woes. Sensex too fell by 0.1% following global cues. Technology and metal stocks declined the most. It is trading further lower today in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
6-10-2022 7-10-2022 % change Dow Jones 29,927 29,297 (2.1) S & P 500 3,745 3,640 (2.8) FTSE 6,997 6,991 (0.1) Nikkei 27,311 27,116 (0.7) Hang Seng 18,012 17,740 (1.5) Shanghai Comp 3,041 3,024 (0.6) Sensex 58,222 58,191 (0.1) Nifty 17,332 17,315 (0.1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except CNY, other global currencies fell against the dollar. DXY rose by 0.5% as strong labour market conditions strengthened the case for more rate hike by the Fed. GBP and EUR fell by 0.7% and 0.5% respectively. JPY weakened to a 24-year low. INR too depreciated to a new record low of 82.33/$. It is trading further weaker today in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
6-10-2022 7-10-2022 % change EUR/USD 0.9791 0.9744 (0.5) GBP/USD 1.1162 1.1086 (0.7) USD/JPY 145.14 145.25 (0.1) USD/INR 81.89 82.33 (0.5) USD/CNY 7.1249 7.1160 0.1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Barring Japan and India (flat), other major global yields closed higher. Germany’s 10Y yield rose the most by 11bps as import prices in Aug’22 increased at the sharpest pace since CY73 oil crisis. Thus, reigniting hopes of faster pace of rate hike by ECB. Even US 10Y yield rose by 6bps as tighter labour market raised hopes of an aggressive policy response from Fed. India’s 10Y yield is trading 4bps higher at 7.50% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
6-10-2022 7-10-2022 change in bps US 3.82 3.88 6 UK 4.17 4.24 7 Germany 2.09 2.19 11 Japan 0.25 0.25 0 China 2.72 2.75 3 India 7.45 7.46 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
6-10-2022 7-10-2022 change in bps Tbill-91 days 5.96 6.12 16 Tbill-182 days 6.44 6.53 9 Tbill-364 days 6.71 6.76 5 G-Sec 2Y 7.11 7.15 4 SONIA int rate benchmark 2.19 2.19 0 US SOFR 3.04 3.05 1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 6-10-2022 7-10-2022 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (0.7) (0.4) 0.3 Reverse repo 0 0 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
4-10-2022 6-10-2022 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 190.5 88.3 (102.2) Debt (47.3) (3.4) 43.9 Equity 237.8 91.7 (146.1) Mutual funds (Rs cr) 1,867.3 (576.9) (2,444.1) Debt (448.5) 484.9 933.4 Equity 2,315.8 (1,061.8) (3,377.6) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research; Note-mutual fund data pertains to 16 and 17 May 2022
Crude oil prices rose by 3.7% to US$ 98/bbl, amidst concerns of tighter supply following OPEC+ decision and in anticipation of EU’s embargo on Russian oil.
Fig 7 – Commodities
6-10-2022 7-10-2022 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 94.4 97.9 3.7 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,712.5 1,694.8 (1.0) Copper (US$/ MT) 7,649.8 7,507.8 (1.9) Zinc (US$/MT) 3,143.3 3,011.5 (4.2) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,347.0 2,299.0 (2.0) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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11 Oct 2022
Equity and bond markets witnessed considerable sell off and currencies depreciated. This was driven by concerns of slowdown in the global economy, fear of high levels of inflation in major economies and the resultant policy tightening by major central banks’. IMF and World Bank Chiefs reiterated rising risk of global recession in their recent statement. They further added that the slowdown for advanced economies will be at a sharper pace and rising Fed fund rate will add to debt pressures of developing economies. Chicago Fed official also raised concerns of inflation saying that it is of more persistent nature than thought initially. On domestic front, markets are awaiting the next CPI print for cues on interest rate.
Global stock rout intensified as US imposed new export control measures against China. Also weighing on investor sentiments was a flare-up in Russia- Ukraine conflict and prospects of rate hikes by the Fed. Hang Seng dropped the most by 3%, followed by Shanghai Comp which was 1.7% lower. Sensex too fell by 0.3%, led by losses in consumer durables and power stocks. It is trading further lower today in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
7-10-2022 10-10-2022 % change Dow Jones 29,297 29,203 (0.3) S & P 500 3,640 3,612 (0.7) FTSE 6,991 6,959 (0.5) Nikkei 27,311 27,116 (0.7) Hang Seng 17,740 17,217 (3.0) Shanghai Comp 3,024 2,974 (1.7) Sensex 58,191 57,991 (0.3) Nifty 17,315 17,241 (0.4) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Barring INR (flat), other global currencies depreciated. DXY rose further by 0.3% as investors await US CPI data. In the last four trading sessions alone, DXY has gained 2.8%. CNY depreciated by 0.6% amidst worsening trade relations with the US. GBP declined even as BoE doubled the pace of its emergency gilt buying program. INR was broadly unchanged. It is trading further weaker today in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
7-10-2022 10-10-2022 % change EUR/USD 0.9744 0.9702 (0.4) GBP/USD 1.1086 1.1055 (0.3) USD/JPY 145.25 145.72 (0.3) USD/INR 82.33 82.32 0 USD/CNY 7.1160 7.1554 (0.6) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Barring Japan (stable) and China (lower), other global yields closed higher. UK’s10Y yield rose the most by 23bps as investors still remained cautious of the fiscal credibility. Germany’s 10Y yield also rose by 15bps after its Chancellor supported joint EU debt issuance to tackle energy crisis. India’s 10Y yield rose by 2bps (7.48%) and is trading a tad higher at 7.49% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
7-10-2022 10-10-2022 change in bps US 3.82 3.88 6 UK 4.24 4.47 23 Germany 2.19 2.34 15 Japan 0.25 0.25 0 China 2.75 2.73 (2) India 7.46 7.48 2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
7-10-2022 10-10-2022 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.12 6.10 (2) Tbill-182 days 6.53 6.67 14 Tbill-364 days 6.76 6.86 10 G-Sec 2Y 7.15 7.21 6 SONIA int rate benchmark 2.19 2.19 0 US SOFR 3.04 3.05 1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 7-10-2022 10-10-2022 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (0.4) 0.1 0.5 Reverse repo 0 0.6 0.6 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
6-10-2022 7-10-2022 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 88.3 (418.8) (507.1) Debt (3.4) 55.5 58.9 Equity 91.7 (474.3) (566.0) Mutual funds (Rs cr) 1,867.3 (576.9) (2,444.1) Debt (448.5) 484.9 933.4 Equity 2,315.8 (1,061.8) (3,377.6) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research; Note-mutual fund data pertains to 16 and 17 May 2022
International crude oil prices fell by 1.8% to US$ 96/bbl, as growth concerns surpassed fears of tighter supply. Gold price also fell by 1.5% as DXY strengthened.
Fig 7 – Commodities
7-10-2022 10-10-2022 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 97.9 96.2 (1.8) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,694.8 1,668.6 (1.5) Copper (US$/ MT) 7,507.8 7,637.8 1.7 Zinc (US$/MT) 3,011.5 2,978.8 (1.1) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,299.0 2,260.0 (1.7) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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12 Oct 2022
While retaining its growth forecast for CY22 at 3.2%, IMF cut the global growth forecast for CY23 to 2.7% (2.9% in Jul’22). It cautioned that “the worst is yet to come, and for many people 2023 will feel like a recession”. A combination of tightening monetary policy, stubbornly high inflation and food and energy crisis are pushing the economy towards a recession. In UK, volatility returned to the financial markets as BoE Governor announced ending its emergency gilt buying program by Friday, as planned. Investors also remained jittery ahead of US CPI data. Even in India, IMF revised growth forecast for FY23 lower to 6.8% from 7.4% earlier. CPI and IIP data due later in the day will be key watchable for the markets.
Global indices ended lower as fears of an economic slowdown aggravated, with IMF warning about the risk of possible global recession in CY23. Investors also turned more cautious ahead of US CPI data release. Sensex fell by 1.5%, led by sharp losses in real estate and metal stocks. However, it is trading higher today while other Asian stocks are trading lower.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
10-10-2022 11-10-2022 % change Dow Jones 29,203 29,239 0.1 S & P 500 3,612 3,589 (0.7) FTSE 6,959 6,885 (1.1) Nikkei 27,311 27,116 (0.7) Hang Seng 17,217 16,832 (2.2) Shanghai Comp 2,974 2,980 0.2 Sensex 57,991 57,147 (1.5) Nifty 17,241 16,984 (1.5) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Barring INR (flat) and EUR (higher), other global currencies lost value against the dollar. DXY rose by 0.1% as investors await US CPI data to gauge Fed’s next move. GBP fell the most by 0.8% as BoE Governor reiterated that BoE will end the emergency support program as planned. JPY depreciated by 0.1% and languished near a 24-year low. INR ended flat amidst support from RBI. It is trading a tad weaker today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
10-10-2022 11-10-2022 % change EUR/USD 0.9702 0.9708 0.1 GBP/USD 1.1055 1.0968 (0.8) USD/JPY 145.72 145.86 (0.1) USD/INR 82.32 82.33 0 USD/CNY 7.1554 7.1687 (0.2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields closed mixed. While 10Y yields in US (7bps) and China’s (2bps) ending higher, yields in UK (3bps) and Germany (4bps) edged down. Japan’s 10Y yield ended flat. Markets in UK were closely tracking the commentaries by BoE wherein they stated ending the bond-buying programme in the next 3-days. India’s 10Y yield fell by 5bps (7.43%) as oil prices eased. It is trading further lower at 7.39% today ahead of CPI data.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
10-10-2022 11-10-2022 change in bps US 3.88 3.95 7 UK 4.47 4.44 (3) Germany 2.34 2.30 (4) Japan 0.25 0.25 0 China 2.73 2.75 2 India 7.48 7.43 (5) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
10-10-2022 11-10-2022 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.10 6.20 10 Tbill-182 days 6.67 6.73 6 Tbill-364 days 6.86 6.92 6 G-Sec 2Y 7.21 7.18 (4) SONIA int rate benchmark 2.19 2.19 0 US SOFR 3.05 3.05 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 10-10-2022 11-10-2022 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) 0.1 0.1 0 Reverse repo 0.6 0.6 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
7-10-2022 10-10-2022 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (418.8) (114.2) 304.6 Debt 55.5 (21.4) (76.8) Equity (474.3) (92.8) 381.4 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 1,867.3 (576.9) (2,444.1) Debt (448.5) 484.9 933.4 Equity 2,315.8 (1,061.8) (3,377.6) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research; Note-mutual fund data pertains to 16 and 17 May 2022
Crude oil prices fell by 2% due to concerns over muted demand led by resurgence of Covid-19 cases in China and lower global growth.
Fig 7 – Commodities
10-10-2022 11-10-2022 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 96.2 94.3 (2.0) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,668.6 1,666.3 (0.1) Copper (US$/ MT) 7,637.8 7,661.3 0.3 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,978.8 2,945.8 (1.1) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,260.0 2,236.0 (1.1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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14 Oct 2022
Inflationary pressures continued to mount globally as evident from CPI readings of US, Germany and more recently, China. In US, CPI inflation rose by 8.2% against an estimated 8.1% increase. More importantly, core inflation quickened to a 40-year high of 6.6%. Germany’s annual inflation rate at 10% in Sep’22 was the highest on record. Even in China, CPI inflation rose to a 29-month high at 2.8% in Sep’22 from 2.5% in Aug’22. PPI inflation however eased to 0.9% from 2.3% in Aug’22. In India, investors await WPI data, results of the Rs 30,000 crore bond auction and minutes of RBI’s policy.
Global indices closed mixed. Growth and inflation dilemma kept investors jittery. Despite overheating inflation data, US and European markets were supported by expectation of more pro-growth policies in UK. Dow Jones rose by 2.8%, followed by FTSE (up 0.4%). In Asia, Hang Seng fell by 1.9%, dragged down by technology stocks. Sensex ended lower by 0.7% led by banking stocks. However, it is trading higher today in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
12-10-2022 13-10-2022 % change Dow Jones 29,211 30,039 2.8 S & P 500 3,577 3,670 2.6 FTSE 6,826 6,850 0.4 Nikkei 26,397 26,237 (0.6) Hang Seng 16,701 16,389 (1.9) Shanghai Comp 3,026 3,016 (0.3) Sensex 57,626 57,235 (0.7) Nifty 17,124 17,014 (0.6) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except JPY (higher) and INR (flat), other global currencies made gains against the dollar. After rising for 6-straight sessions, DXY fell by 0.8% even as US CPI was higher than expected. GBP gained sharply by 2% on reports that the UK government may announce policies to boost growth. EUR gained 0.8% as Germany’s inflation rate was confirmed at a record 10% YoY in Sep’22. INR remained range bound. It is trading a tad stronger today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
12-10-2022 13-10-2022 % change EUR/USD 0.9703 0.9776 0.8 GBP/USD 1.1100 1.1326 2.0 USD/JPY 146.91 147.12 (0.1) USD/INR 82.31 82.35 0 USD/CNY 7.1748 7.1695 0.1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except US (higher) and China (flat), global yields closed lower. US 10Y yield rose by 5bps after US CPI report. Core inflation rose to its highest in past 40 years. CME Fed watch data is now pricing in 98% probability (~75% earlier) for 75bps rate hike by Fed. UK’s 10Y yield fell by 24bps as its Finance Minister said that more growth centric policies might be forthcoming to support the economy. India’s 10Y yield fell a tad by 1bps (7.42%) and is trading higher at 7.44% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
12-10-2022 13-10-2022 change in bps US 3.90 3.94 5 UK 4.44 4.20 (24) Germany 2.31 2.29 (3) Japan 0.26 0.25 (1) China 2.73 2.73 0 India 7.44 7.42 (1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
12-10-2022 13-10-2022 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.30 6.30 0 Tbill-182 days 6.70 6.70 0 Tbill-364 days 6.98 6.97 (1) G-Sec 2Y 7.18 7.18 0 SONIA int rate benchmark 2.19 2.19 0 US SOFR 3.05 3.04 (1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 12-10-2022 13-10-2022 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) 0.1 0.0 (0.1) Reverse repo 0.6 0.6 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
11-10-2022 12-10-2022 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (395.3) (29.6) 365.7 Debt 61.2 13.8 (47.3) Equity (456.5) (43.4) 413.1 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 1,867.3 (576.9) (2,444.1) Debt (448.5) 484.9 933.4 Equity 2,315.8 (1,061.8) (3,377.6) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research; Note-mutual fund data pertains to 16 and 17 May 2022
International oil prices rose by 2.3% as distillate stockpiles, which include diesel fell to its lowest since May’22, raising concerns ahead of winter.
Fig 7 – Commodities
12-10-2022 13-10-2022 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 92.5 94.6 2.3 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,673.2 1,666.4 (0.4) Copper (US$/ MT) 7,636.0 7,665.5 0.4 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,939.8 2,952.3 0.4 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,305.0 2,359.5 2.4 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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