Economic Weekly Wrap
29 May 2023 - 02 June 2023
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29 May 2023
urrounded by optimism around US debt ceiling pushed global indices higher. Hotter than expected PCE (4.4% vs 4.2%) and uptick in consumer spending in Apr’23 has raised bets of Fed continuing with the rate hike cycle for far much longer than was initially anticipated. As per the CME FedWatch tool, there is now a 60% chance of rate hike in Jun’23 up from 40% previously. Turkish Lira dropped to record low after the Presidential election results. On the domestic front, in the coming week, all eyes will be on the upcoming GDP annual data, fiscal data and core output to drive the market.
Most global indices closed higher, with markets in US and India gaining the most. Developments around US debt ceiling deal and better than expected results of tech company supported the rally on Wall Street. FTSE also gained momentum as companies reported improvement in retail sales volumes. Sensex rose by 1%, driven by realty, tech and consumer durable stocks. It is trading further higher today, in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
25-05-2023 26-05-2023 % change Dow Jones 32,765 33,093 1.0 S & P 500 4,151 4,205 1.3 FTSE 7,571 7,627 0.7 Nikkei 30,801 30,916 0.4 Hang Seng 19,116 18,747 (1.9) Shanghai Comp 3,201 3,213 0.4 Sensex 61,873 62,502 1.0 Nifty 18,321 18,499 1.0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except EUR (flat) and JPY (lower), other global currencies ended higher against the dollar. DXY ended flat as boost from deal around US debt ceiling was outweighed by fears of longer than anticipated elevated rates in the US. INR appreciated by 0.2% and is trading further stronger today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
25-05-2023 26-05-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0725 1.0723 (0.0) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2321 1.2344 0.2 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 140.06 140.60 (0.4) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.74 82.57 0.2 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.0792 7.0640 0.2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields closed mixed. 10Y yields in UK and US fell the most. Hopes of finalising agreement on debt ceiling helped ease pressure on yields. However, US 2Y yield inched up as PCE inflation index for Apr’23, came in stronger than expected. India’s 10Y yield remained flat, and is trading a tad lower at 7% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
25-05-2023 26-05-2023 change in bps US 3.82 3.80 (2) UK 4.37 4.33 (4) Germany 2.52 2.54 2 Japan 0.43 0.42 (1) China 2.71 2.72 1 India 7.01 7.01 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
25-05-2023 26-05-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.74 6.73 (1) Tbill-182 days 6.85 6.87 2 Tbill-364 days 6.88 6.89 1 G-Sec 2Y 6.85 6.83 (2) India OIS-2M 6.55 6.54 (1) India OIS-9M 6.57 6.57 0 SONIA int rate benchmark 4.43 4.43 0 US SOFR 5.05 5.06 1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 18-05-2023 19-05-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (0.9) (0.5) 0.4 Reverse repo 0.1 0 (0.1) Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
Rs tn 25-05-2023 26-05-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (0.8) (1.0) (0.2) Reverse repo 0.5 0.5 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Mutual funds data as of 23 and 24 May 2023
Global oil prices rose by 0.9% as positive sentiment around US debt ceiling deal helped uplift investor sentiments.
Fig 7 – Commodities
25-05-2023 26-05-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 76.3 77.0 0.9 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,941.4 1,946.5 0.3 Copper (US$/ MT) 7,914.8 8,106.0 2.4 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,259.0 2,329.3 3.1 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,231.0 2,237.5 0.3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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30 May 2023
markets turned buoyant after the US debt ceiling deal was tentatively struck with final voting expected this week (5th June timeline). However, some risk continue to loom as investors are concerned about the possible spending cuts might weigh in on growth. Furthermore, the entire process has also raised concerns over US standing with other credit rating agencies. Separately, markets will await China’s PMI reading and rate decision by Bank of Thailand.
The in-principle approval in the US debt ceiling deal has pushed global indices in to a relief rally. Nikkei climbed up by 1% (highest since Jul’90). Amidst the positive trend and boosted by strong FII inflows, Sensex reclaimed the crucial 63,000 mark led by strong gains in consumer durable and metal stocks. However, it opened lower today, while other Asian stocks are trading mixed.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
26-05-2023 29-05-2023 % change Dow Jones 32,765 33,093 1.0 S & P 500 4,151 4,205 1.3 FTSE 7,571 7,627 0.7 Nikkei 30,916 31,234 1.0 Hang Seng 18,747 18,551 (1.0) Shanghai Comp 3,213 3,221 0.3 Sensex 62,502 62,846 0.6 Nifty 18,499 18,599 0.5 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except GBP (closed) and JPY (higher), other global currencies ended lower against the dollar. DXY ended flat, as risk-on sentiment, supported by US debt ceiling deal, was offset by increased probability of rate hike by Fed in Jun’23. INR depreciated by 0.1%, driven by demand for US$ by OMCs. It is trading further lower today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
26-05-2023 29-05-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0723 1.0708 (0.1) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2344 1.2355 0.1 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 140.60 140.45 0.1 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.57 82.63 (0.1) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.0640 7.0711 (0.1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields closed mixed. Barring US and UK (closed), yields in Germany and China fell, while they rose in Japan and India. Germany’s weaker than expected GDP growth in Q1 continues to dampen investor sentiment. US debt ceiling deal also allowed yields to come off their high. India’s 10Y yield rose by 2bps, as oil prices inched up and analysts expect rate hike by Fed in Jun’23.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
26-05-2023 29-05-2023 change in bps US 3.82 3.80 (2) UK 4.37 4.33 (4) Germany 2.54 2.43 (10) Japan 0.42 0.44 2 China 2.72 2.72 (1) India 7.01 7.03 2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
26-05-2023 29-05-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.73 6.75 2 Tbill-182 days 6.87 6.88 1 Tbill-364 days 6.89 6.90 1 G-Sec 2Y 6.83 6.84 1 India OIS-2M 6.54 6.54 0 India OIS-9M 6.57 6.59 2 SONIA int rate benchmark 4.43 4.43 0 US SOFR 5.05 5.06 1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 26-05-2023 29-05-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (1.0) (1.0) 0 Reverse repo 0.5 0.5 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
25-05-2023 26-05-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 442.1 265.9 (176.2) Debt 138.6 49.6 (89.0) Equity 303.5 216.4 (87.2) Mutual funds (Rs cr) 733.2 (316.2) (1,049.4) Debt 415.5 (824.7) (1,240.2) Equity 317.7 508.5 190.8 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Mutual funds data as of 23 and 24 May 2023
Global oil prices rose by 0.2% as tentative US debt ceiling deal raised hopes for improved demand.
Fig 7 – Commodities
26-05-2023 29-05-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 77.0 77.1 0.2 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,946.5 1,943.2 (0.2) Copper (US$/ MT) 7,914.8 8,106.0 2.4 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,259.0 2,329.3 3.1 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,231.0 2,237.5 0.3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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31 May 2023
Macro indicators globally reflected the dual dilemma of growth and inflation. Consumer confidence in the US fell in May’23. Even Dallas Fed manufacturing activity fell more than anticipated. In UK, BRC shop price index firmed up, affirming that price pressure remains elevated. In China, manufacturing PMI dipped to its lowest level in past 5 months, signalling some degree of slowdown. Elsewhere, RBA Governor hinted at being data dependent in the future course of action. Richmond Fed President on the other hand hinted at inflation being too high and demand is yet to come down. Japan’s top officials met over concerns of policy divergence and its impact on currency. In India, RBI’s balance sheet reported surplus of Rs 87,416crore more than the budgeted figure, which would provide a fiscal push.
Except US and UK, stocks elsewhere posted modest gains. Market sentiments remained subdued as concerns remained over the approval of the US-debt ceiling deal by the Congress. Fall in US consumer confidence index and Japan’s warning on yen depreciation also impacted market sentiments. Sensex rose by 0.2%, led by gains in banking and technology stocks. However, it is trading lower today, in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
29-05-2023 30-05-2023 % change Dow Jones 33,093 33,043 (0.2) S & P 500 4,205 4,206 0 FTSE 7,627 7,522 (1.4) Nikkei 31,234 31,328 0.3 Hang Seng 18,551 18,596 0.2 Shanghai Comp 3,221 3,224 0.1 Sensex 62,846 62,969 0.2 Nifty 18,599 18,634 0.2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except INR and CNY (lower), other global currencies appreciated. JPY edged up by 0.5% after the government stated that it will closely watch the movement in Yen and respond appropriately, following an emergency meeting between BoJ and financial authorities. INR depreciated by 0.1%, despite lower oil prices. However, it is trading stronger today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
29-05-2023 30-05-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0708 1.0735 0.3 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2355 1.2414 0.5 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 140.45 139.79 0.5 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.63 82.72 (0.1) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.0711 7.0799 (0.1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields broadly closed lower. Muted high frequency indicators of growth globally raised appetite for sovereign securities, on account of risk off sentiments. US 10Y yield fell the most by 11bps as the debt deal faces its first test in Congress. India’s 10Y yield fell by 2bps. It is trading at 6.99% today, ahead of major macro releases.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
29-05-2023 30-05-2023 change in bps US 3.80 3.69 (11) UK 4.33 4.25 (9) Germany 2.43 2.34 (9) Japan 0.44 0.44 (1) China 2.72 2.72 1 India 7.03 7.01 (2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
29-05-2023 30-05-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.75 6.76 1 Tbill-182 days 6.88 6.85 (3) Tbill-364 days 6.90 6.91 1 G-Sec 2Y 6.84 6.87 2 India OIS-2M 6.54 6.54 0 India OIS-9M 6.59 6.59 0 SONIA int rate benchmark 4.43 4.43 0 US SOFR 5.06 5.06 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 29-05-2023 30-05-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (1.0) (1.4) (0.4) Reverse repo 0.5 0.5 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
26-05-2023 29-05-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 265.9 233.7 (32.2) Debt 49.6 (43.7) (93.3) Equity 216.4 277.5 61.1 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 1,718.3 1,562.6 (155.7) Debt 938.6 1,393.8 455.2 Equity 779.8 168.9 (610.9) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Mutual funds data as of 23 and 24 May 2023
Oil prices declined by 4.6% amidst mixed comments from OPEC+ producers.
Fig 7 – Commodities
29-05-2023 30-05-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 77.1 73.5 (4.6) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,943.2 1,959.3 0.8 Copper (US$/ MT) 8,106.0 8,103.0 (0.0) Zinc (US$/MT) 2,329.3 2,287.8 (1.8) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,237.5 2,224.0 (0.6) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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01 June 2023
Global markets continued to gauge the likelihood of rate hike or a pause in the upcoming Fed meet amidst comments from Fed officials and US job openings report. Investors will also be closely monitoring the May unemployment report for more guidance. China’s recovery hit a bump after subdued data pointed to consecutive contraction in manufacturing activity (official PMI). With the clearance of US debt deal, markets are expected to turn optimistic. Separately, data from India surprised positively with much higher than anticipated growth for FY23 (7.2%) and fiscal deficit meeting the target of 6.4% of GDP in FY23.
Global indices ended lower. Asian markets ended in deep red after disappointing data print from China (Manufacturing activity slid for 2nd straight month In May’23). Investors’ also monitored commentary from Fed officials with the possibility of Fed ‘skipping’ rate hike in Jun’23 meet. Sensex slipped by 0.6% and was dragged down by losses in metal and oil & gas stocks. It is trading lower today, while other Asian stocks are trading higher.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
30-05-2023 31-05-2023 % change Dow Jones 33,043 32,908 (0.4) S & P 500 4,206 4,180 (0.6) FTSE 7,522 7,446 (1.0) Nikkei 31,328 30,888 (1.4) Hang Seng 18,596 18,234 (1.9) Shanghai Comp 3,224 3,205 (0.6) Sensex 62,969 62,622 (0.6) Nifty 18,634 18,534 (0.5) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies closed mixed, with EUR and CNY declining against the dollar, while GBP and JPY gained. DXY was up by 0.2%. Slowdown in China, agreement on US debt ceiling deal, and persistently tight US labour market, impacted investor sentiments. INR ended flat, but is trading higher today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
30-05-2023 31-05-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0735 1.0689 (0.4) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2414 1.2441 0.2 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 139.79 139.34 0.3 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.72 82.73 (0.0) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.0799 7.1085 (0.4) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Barring Japan (flat), other global yields inched down. 10Y yields in UK, Germany (-6bps each), and US (-4bps) fell the most. Remarks from Fed Governor and vice chair nominee Philip Jefferson signalled that Fed might skip hiking rates in its Jun’23 meeting. India’s 10Y yield fell by 2bps, as oil prices declined. It is trading flat today at 6.99%.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
30-05-2023 31-05-2023 change in bps US 3.69 3.64 (4) UK 4.25 4.18 (6) Germany 2.34 2.28 (6) Japan 0.44 0.44 0 China 2.72 2.71 (1) India 7.01 6.99 (2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
30-05-2023 31-05-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.76 6.76 0 Tbill-182 days 6.85 6.88 3 Tbill-364 days 6.91 6.88 (3) G-Sec 2Y 6.87 6.84 (2) India OIS-2M 6.54 6.54 0 India OIS-9M 6.59 6.58 (1) SONIA int rate benchmark 4.43 4.43 0 US SOFR 5.06 5.06 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 30-05-2023 31-05-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (1.4) (1.8) (0.4) Reverse repo 0.5 0.5 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
29-05-2023 30-05-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 233.7 373.5 139.8 Debt (43.7) 78.4 122.1 Equity 277.5 295.1 17.6 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 2,887.9 447.1 (2,440.8) Debt 1,061.6 (627.2) (1,688.8) Equity 1,826.3 1,074.2 (752.1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Mutual funds data as of 23 and 24 May 2023
Global oil prices fell by 1.2% as weaker than expected China data (manufacturing PMI) rekindled demand concerns.
Fig 7 – Commodities
30-05-2023 31-05-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 73.5 72.7 (1.2) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,959.3 1,962.7 0.2 Copper (US$/ MT) 8,103.0 8,070.0 (0.4) Zinc (US$/MT) 2,287.8 2,229.8 (2.5) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,224.0 2,246.0 1.0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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02 June 2023
Investors factored in a higher possibility of a pause on rate hike front by Fed (76% for pause) in the upcoming Fed meet given the early signs of labour market cooling off. Markets will await the unemployment report scheduled later today. US 10Y yields tumbled after subdued data print (Manufacturing PMI contracted and new Jobless claims rose). On the other hand, ECB reiterated the policy tightening continues to remains a necessary tool amidst elevated inflation. Dollar retreated, while crude prices jumped awaiting the OPEC+ meet. Separately, India’s manufacturing PMI expanded at its fastest pace in May’23 (58.7 from 57.2 in Apr’23).
Global indices ended mixed. US and European indices ended higher on the back of progress made in US debt deal and on dimming hopes of another rate hike by Fed. On the other hand, Hang Seng slipped lower. Sensex too ended in red. With sharp losses in metal and banking stocks. Though, it is trading higher today, in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
31-05-2023 1-06-2023 % change Dow Jones 32,908 33,062 0.5 S & P 500 4,180 4,221 1.0 FTSE 7,446 7,490 0.6 Nikkei 30,888 31,148 0.8 Hang Seng 18,234 18,217 (0.1) Shanghai Comp 3,205 3,205 0 Sensex 62,622 62,429 (0.3) Nifty 18,534 18,488 (0.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies closed higher, with EUR and GBP (+0.7% each) gaining the most against the dollar. DXY fell by 0.7%, as chances of rate hike by Fed in Jun’23 ebbed, and risk sentiment improved. INR too appreciated by 0.4%, even as oil prices inched up. It is trading further higher today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
31-05-2023 1-06-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0689 1.0762 0.7 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2441 1.2526 0.7 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 139.34 138.80 0.4 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.73 82.41 0.4 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1085 7.0976 0.2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Barring China (flat), other global yields ended lower. 10Y yields in UK, US and Germany fell the most. Weaker than expected manufacturing PMI, along with slight increase in jobless claims have raised hopes of Fed skipping rate hike in Jun’23. Following global cues, and expecting a pause from RBI as well, India’s 10Y yield fell by 1bps to 6.98%. It is trading even lower today at 6.97%.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
31-05-2023 1-06-2023 change in bps US 3.64 3.60 (5) UK 4.18 4.12 (7) Germany 2.28 2.25 (3) Japan 0.44 0.42 (1) China 2.71 2.70 0 India 6.99 6.98 (1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
31-05-2023 1-06-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.76 6.74 (2) Tbill-182 days 6.88 6.85 (3) Tbill-364 days 6.88 6.87 (1) G-Sec 2Y 6.84 6.84 0 India OIS-2M 6.54 6.54 0 India OIS-9M 6.58 6.58 0 SONIA int rate benchmark 4.43 4.43 0 US SOFR 5.06 5.08 2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 31-05-2023 1-06-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (1.8) (2.4) (0.6) Reverse repo 0.5 0.5 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
30-05-2023 31-05-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 373.5 451.5 78.0 Debt 78.4 (12.6) (91.0) Equity 295.1 464.2 169.1 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 447.1 (283.2) (730.3) Debt (627.2) (386.6) 240.5 Equity 1,074.2 103.4 (970.8) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Mutual funds data as of 23 and 24 May 2023
Global oil prices rose by 2.2% to ~ US$ 74/bbl, supported by advancement made on US debt ceiling deal and also ahead of OPEC+ meeting this Sunday.
Fig 7 – Commodities
31-05-2023 1-06-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 72.7 74.3 2.2 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,962.7 1,977.6 0.8 Copper (US$/ MT) 8,070.0 8,240.0 2.1 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,229.8 2,250.3 0.9 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,246.0 2,282.5 1.6 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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