Economic Weekly Wrap
02 January 2023 - 06 January 2023
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2 Jan 2023
China’s official PMIs indicate that both manufacturing (47.8 in Dec’22 versus est.: 47 and 48 in Nov’22) and non-manufacturing (41.6 in Dec’22 versus est.: 45 and 46.7 in Nov’22) activity contracted much more than expected in Dec’22. Surge in Covid-19 cases and related restrictions were the key drivers. In the current year, investors will watch for signals showing the impact of rate hikes on respective economies, and spillover from slowdown in China. Another key question will be at what rates major central banks will peak their policy rates. To gauge the same, analysts await flash global PMIs, China’s trade data, Eurozone CPI and Germany factory order data, due this week.
Global indices ended mixed. For the New Year, investors are expected to track Fed’s next move with respect to rate hike and remain watchful on growing signs of weakness in China’s economy. Dow Jones had declined by 8.8% in CY22 compared with an increase of 18.7% in CY21. Sensex on the other hand, edged up by 4.4% in CY22 (22% in CY21). Banking and power stocks fell the most on the last trading day. It is trading higher today in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
29-12-2022 30-12-2022 % change Dow Jones 33,221 33,147 (0.2) S & P 500 3,849 3,840 (0.3) FTSE 7,513 7,452 (0.8) Nikkei 26,094 26,095 0 Hang Seng 19,741 19,781 0.2 Shanghai Comp 3,074 3,089 0.5 Sensex 61,134 60,841 (0.5) Nifty 18,191 18,105 (0.5) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies edged up against the dollar. DXY retreated by 0.3% as investors monitored US jobless claims. JPY (1.5%) gained the most followed by EUR (0.4%) and GBP (0.2%). INR appreciated, despite oil prices edging higher. However, it is trading lower today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
29-12-2022 30-12-2022 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0661 1.0705 0.4 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2055 1.2083 0.2 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 133.03 131.12 1.5 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.81 82.74 0.1 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 6.9643 6.8986 1.0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Improvement in Chicago business activity index indicates that Fed may continue to keep rates elevated for a longer period. In addition, investors are also eyeing Covid-19 related travel restrictions announced by US and European economies. Following global cues, India’s 10Y yield too moved up by 2bps to 7.33% and is trading further higher at 7.35% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
29-12-2022 30-12-2022 change in bps US 3.81 3.87 6 UK 3.66 3.67 1 Germany 2.44 2.57 13 Japan 0.46 0.42 (4) China 2.85 2.84 (1) India 7.31 7.33 2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
29-12-2022 30-12-2022 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.29 6.26 (3) Tbill-182 days 6.70 6.69 (1) Tbill-364 days 6.87 6.87 0 G-Sec 2Y 6.96 6.96 0 SONIA int rate benchmark 3.43 3.43 0 US SOFR 4.30 4.30 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 29-12-2022 30-12-2022 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) 0 (0.1) (0.1) Reverse repo 0.1 0 (0.1) Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
28-12-2022 29-12-2022 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 93.4 4.6 (88.7) Debt 144.9 (52.0) (196.9) Equity (51.6) 56.6 108.2 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 1,903.3 650.0 (1,253.4) Debt 690.8 313.9 (376.9) Equity 1,212.5 336.1 (876.5) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research; Note-mutual fund data pertains to 16 and 17 May 2022
Crude oil prices rose by 4.4% to US$ 86/bbl on the back of tighter supplies. Gold prices inched up further.
Fig 7 – Commodities
29-12-2022 30-12-2022 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 82.3 85.9 4.4 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,814.9 1,824.0 0.5 Copper (US$/ MT) 8,409.5 8,364.8 (0.5) Zinc (US$/MT) 3,012.8 3,003.3 (0.3) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,405.0 2,378.0 (1.1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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3 Jan 2023
Manufacturing PMIs for China and Eurozone indicate that activity continued to remain in contraction in Dec’22 as well. While in China, the downturn was more severe with index settling at 49 from 49.4 in Nov’22, in case of Eurozone, the pace of contraction eased (47.8 versus 47.1 in Nov’22). IMF too has warned that 1/3rd of global economies will be in recession this year, led by slowdown in US, Europe and China. While most markets were closed on 2nd Jan 2023, they will open the New Year with the news of BoJ expecting to change its inflation forecasts in Jan’23 and weaker than expected Q4CY22 GDP data (2.2%—slowest since mid-2021) for Singapore. Later, US jobs report and Fed minutes will further guide the markets.
Global indices ended mixed. Most of the indices remained closed due to holidays. Investors monitored news of IMF warning of a tougher 2023 with over 1/3rd of the world bracing the impact of recession. Fed’s minutes and US jobs data will guide the market further. Sensex started the year in green (0.5%) with metal and real estate stocks logging in the highest gains. However, it is trading lower today while other Asian stocks are trading mixed.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
30-12-2022 2-1-2023 % change Dow Jones 33,221 33,147 (0.2) S & P 500 3,849 3,840 (0.3) FTSE 7,513 7,452 (0.8) Nikkei 26,094 26,095 0 Hang Seng 19,741 19,781 0.2 Shanghai Comp 3,074 3,089 0.5 Sensex 60,841 61,168 0.5 Nifty 18,105 18,197 0.5 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Apart from INR (flat), other global currencies closed mixed. Dollar ended flat as all attention shifted towards Fed’s minutes. Investors braced for possible signals on how high terminal rates will be in the coming months. US payrolls report will also be watchful. INR opened stronger today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
30-12-2022 2-1-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0705 1.0667 (0.4) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2083 1.2046 (0.3) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 131.12 130.80 0.2 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.74 82.75 0 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 6.9643 6.8986 1.0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Barring India, markets elsewhere closed for holidays. Investors this week will react of continued contraction in Eurozone manufacturing PMIs, US jobs report, Fed minutes, and IMF’s warning of impending global recession in CY23. India’s 10Y yield moved up by 1bps to 7.34%, however, it is trading lower today at 7.32%.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
30-12-2022 2-1-2023 change in bps US 3.81 3.87 6 UK 3.66 3.67 1 Germany 2.44 2.57 13 Japan 0.46 0.42 (4) China 2.85 2.84 (1) India 7.33 7.34 1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
30-12-2022 2-1-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.29 6.26 (3) Tbill-182 days 6.70 6.69 (1) Tbill-364 days 6.87 6.87 0 G-Sec 2Y 6.96 6.96 0 SONIA int rate benchmark 3.43 3.43 0 US SOFR 4.30 4.30 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 29-12-2022 30-12-2022 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (0.1) (0.7) (0.6) Reverse repo 0 0.3 0.3 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
29-12-2022 30-12-2022 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 4.6 (416.9) (421.5) Debt (52.0) 13.2 65.2 Equity 56.6 (430.0) (486.6) Mutual funds (Rs cr) 1,903.3 650.0 (1,253.4) Debt 690.8 313.9 (376.9) Equity 1,212.5 336.1 (876.5) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research; Note-mutual fund data pertains to 16 and 17 May 2022
Crude oil prices remained flat as IMF has warned of global recession in CY23. Gold prices were up by 0.5%.
Fig 7 – Commodities
30-12-2022 2-1-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 85.9 85.9 0 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,814.9 1,824.0 0.5 Copper (US$/ MT) 8,409.5 8,364.8 (0.5) Zinc (US$/MT) 3,012.8 3,003.3 (0.3) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,405.0 2,378.0 (1.1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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4 Jan 2023
Tight monetary conditions across globe are beginning to shows its impact on real economy. JP Morgan global manufacturing PMI fell to its lowest in 30 months in Dec’22 (48.6 versus 48.8 in Nov’22), with activity faltering in US, Euro Area, China and Japan. In case of US the deterioration was the fastest since May’20. When compared with pre-pandemic period, global and US manufacturing PMI readings are the weakest since 2009. Separately, Germany’s CPI came lower (8.6%) than expected (9%) in Dec’22, dropping from 10% in Nov’22. Going ahead, investors will look for cues from Fed minutes, to gauge central bank rate hike trajectory.
Barring Dow Jones (flat) and S&P 500 (lower), other global indices ended higher. Investors remain watchful ahead of the Fed minutes and speeches by Fed officials providing guidance on future rate hike. Lower inflation reading in Germany offered support. Sensex gained by 0.2% led by consumer durables and banking stocks. It opened weaker today while other Asian stocks are trading mixed.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
2-1-2023 3-1-2023 % change Dow Jones 33,147 33,136 0) S & P 500 3,840 3,824 (0.4) FTSE 7,452 7,554 1.4 Nikkei 26,094 26,095 0 Hang Seng 19,781 20,145 1.8 Shanghai Comp 3,089 3,117 0.9 Sensex 61,168 61,294 0.2 Nifty 18,197 18,233 0.2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies ended lower against the dollar. DXY gained by 1% as the focus turned towards US ISM PMI and also on gauging the future interest rate path. Euro slid by 1.1% after cool-off in Germany's inflation (8.6% from 10%) owing to government measures to protect consumers from high energy bills. INR depreciated by 0.2% led by lower oil prices. It is trading stronger today while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
2-1-2023 3-1-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0667 1.0548 (1.1) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2046 1.1968 (0.6) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 130.80 131.02 (0.2) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.75 82.89 (0.2) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 6.8986 6.9150 (0.2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Bond yields (10Y) fell across countries. Most significant decline was visible in Germany (-18bps) and US (-14bps). Deteriorating manufacturing PMIs have raised concerns over the impact of central bank rate hikes on economic growth. IMF’s warning of a global recession also impacted investor sentiments. India’s 10Y yield fell by 1bps to 7.32%, as oil prices declined. It is trading flat today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
2-1-2023 3-1-2023 change in bps US 3.87 3.74 (14) UK 3.67 3.65 (2) Germany 2.57 2.39 (18) Japan 0.42 0.42 0 China 2.84 2.83 (1) India 7.33 7.32 (1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
2-1-2023 3-1-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.28 6.35 7 Tbill-182 days 6.68 6.64 (4) Tbill-364 days 6.88 6.88 0 G-Sec 2Y 6.94 6.93 (1) SONIA int rate benchmark 3.43 3.43 0 US SOFR 4.30 4.30 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 2-1-2023 3-1-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (0.7) (1.3) (0.6) Reverse repo 0.3 0.3 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
30-12-2022 2-1-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (416.9) 200.4 617.3 Debt 13.2 (0.7) (13.8) Equity (430.0) 201.1 631.1 Mutual funds (Rs cr) (2,297.6) 585.2 2,882.8 Debt (471.8) (462.9) 8.9 Equity (1,825.8) 1,048.1 2,873.9 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research; Note-mutual fund data pertains to 16 and 17 May 2022
Crude oil prices fell sharply as IMF warned of a recession in CY23. Demand prospects are expected to remain dim till China’s reopening shows substantial impact.
Fig 7 – Commodities
2-1-2023 3-1-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 85.9 82.1 (4.4) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,824.0 1,839.5 0.8 Copper (US$/ MT) 8,364.8 8,307.0 (0.7) Zinc (US$/MT) 3,003.3 3,023.8 0.7 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,378.0 2,311.0 (2.8) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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5 Jan 2022
US Fed minutes indicate that all members agree to ease the pace of rate hikes in CY23, as rapid tightening of monetary policy is showing visible impact on economic growth. Members also acknowledged that while inflation has come down, policy makers will continue to stand on guard until it falls within the targeted 2% range. US ISM manufacturing PMI has contracted for the 2nd consecutive month in Dec’22 (48.4) from Nov’22 (49.0), falling to its lowest level since May’20. Although, price pressures have seen declining. Services activity in China, Australia and France too continues to weaken in Dec’22. Activity in Germany has recorded some improvement. Crude prices also remain under pressure, noting weak global demand.
Barring Sensex and Nikkei, other global indices ended higher. Investors monitored Fed minutes with members reaffirming their resolve to lower inflation. They also cautioned of 'unwarranted' loosening of financial conditions. Further, moderation in inflation in Euro area also boosted investor sentiments. Sensex (1%) ended in red and was dragged down by sharp losses in metal and real estate stocks. However, it is trading higher today in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
3-1-2023 4-1-2023 % change Dow Jones 33,136 33,270 0.4 S & P 500 3,824 3,853 0.8 FTSE 7,554 7,585 0.4 Nikkei 26,095 25,717 (1.4) Hang Seng 20,145 20,793 3.2 Shanghai Comp 3,117 3,124 0.2 Sensex 61,294 60,657 (1.0) Nifty 18,233 18,043 (1.0) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except JPY, other currencies edged higher against the dollar. DXY retreated by 0.3% ahead of the US jobs report. GBP rose by 0.7% followed by Euro (0.5%). Lower inflation reading from France and Germany have also eased pressure on ECB. INR appreciated by 0.1% as oil prices tumbled by 5.2% over weaker demand outlook. It is trading stronger today while other currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
3-1-2023 4-1-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0548 1.0604 0.5 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.1968 1.2055 0.7 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 131.02 132.63 (1.2) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.89 82.81 0.1 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 6.9150 6.8973 0.3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except Japan (higher) and India (flat), bond yields (10Y) fell further elsewhere. UK (-16bps), Germany (-12bps), and US (-6bps) 10Y yields fell the most. Yields reacted to dip in inflation in Europe (France & Germany) and US Fed minutes. US manufacturing ISM also fell, resurfacing fears of economic slowdown. India’s 10Y yield ended flat and is trading at similar levels even today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
3-1-2023 4-1-2023 change in bps US 3.74 3.68 (6) UK 3.65 3.49 (16) Germany 2.39 2.27 (12) Japan 0.42 0.47 4 China 2.83 2.82 (1) India 7.32 7.32 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
3-1-2023 4-1-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.35 6.35 0 Tbill-182 days 6.64 6.76 12 Tbill-364 days 6.88 6.90 2 G-Sec 2Y 6.93 6.93 0 SONIA int rate benchmark 3.43 3.43 0 US SOFR 4.30 4.30 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 3-1-2023 4-1-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (1.3) (1.4) (0.1) Reverse repo 0.3 0.3 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
2-1-2023 3-1-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 200.4 (131.6) (332.0) Debt (0.7) (100.6) (100.0) Equity 201.1 (31.0) (232.0) Mutual funds (Rs cr) (2,297.6) 585.2 2,882.8 Debt (471.8) (462.9) 8.9 Equity (1,825.8) 1,048.1 2,873.9 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research; Note-mutual fund data pertains to 16 and 17 May 2022
Crude oil prices have fallen below the US$ 80/bbl mark as weak US ISM manufacturing, and services PMI in China, Australia, France, dampened the demand prospects.
Fig 7 – Commodities
3-1-2023 4-1-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 82.1 77.8 (5.2) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,839.5 1,854.6 0.8 Copper (US$/ MT) 8,307.0 8,236.0 (0.9) Zinc (US$/MT) 3,023.8 3,019.3 (0.1) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,311.0 2,266.5 (1.9) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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6 Jan 2022
Labour market in the US still remains tight with ADP employment showing that 235k jobs were added in Dec’22 versus est.: 153k and 127k in Nov’22. Services sector alone added 213k jobs, of which 123k were added in the leisure and hospitality sector. Initial jobless claims also fell by 19k for the week ending 31 Dec 2022, to 204k. These data points have resurfaced fears that Fed may have to keep monetary policy tight for a longer duration, thus increasing the risk of slowdown. Separately, price pressures in Eurozone seem to be cooling-off, with PPI down by (-) 0.9% MoM in Dec’22, led by (-) 2.2% decline in energy prices. Ex-energy, PPI was up by 0.1%. In Asia, Singapore is showing signs of stress with retail sales growth easing to 6.2% in Nov’22 from 10.3% in Oct’22.
Global indices ended mixed as investors monitored news of tighter labour market which diminished hopes of any possibility of a pause by Fed. Asian markets closed in green with PBoC announcing new measures for lower mortgage rates for first time home buyers. Sensex slipped by 0.5% on the back of global cues and was pushed down further by losses in banking and IT stocks. However, it is trading higher today in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
4-1-2023 5-1-2023 % change Dow Jones 33,270 32,930 (1.0) S & P 500 3,853 3,808 (1.2) FTSE 7,585 7,633 0.6 Nikkei 25,717 25,821 0.4 Hang Seng 20,793 21,052 1.2 Shanghai Comp 3,124 3,155 1.0 Sensex 60,657 60,353 (0.5) Nifty 18,043 17,992 (0.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Barring INR and CNY, other global currencies ended lower against the dollar. DXY gained by 0.8% on the back of strong private payrolls report along with the dip in the weekly jobless claims. GBP tumbled by 1.2%. INR appreciated by 0.3%. It opened stronger today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
4-1-2023 5-1-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0604 1.0522 (0.8) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2055 1.1908 (1.2) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 132.63 133.41 (0.6) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.81 82.55 0.3 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 6.8973 6.8804 0.2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except Japan (lower), bond yields (10Y) rose elsewhere. UK (+6bps), Germany and US (+4bps each) 10Y yields gained the most. Yields reacted to stronger US labour market data (ADP employment and jobless claims), which suggests that Fed might have to keep rates high for long. India’s 10Y yield too rose, by 1bps to 7.33%, as oil prices increased. It is trading flat today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
4-1-2023 5-1-2023 change in bps US 3.68 3.72 4 UK 3.49 3.55 6 Germany 2.27 2.32 4 Japan 0.47 0.43 (3) China 2.82 2.84 2 India 7.32 7.33 1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
4-1-2023 5-1-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.35 6.32 (3) Tbill-182 days 6.76 6.76 0 Tbill-364 days 6.90 6.91 1 G-Sec 2Y 6.93 6.94 1 SONIA int rate benchmark 3.43 3.43 0 US SOFR 4.31 4.30 (1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 4-1-2023 5-1-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (1.5) (1.4) (0.1) Reverse repo 0.3 0.3 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
3-1-2023 4-1-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (131.6) (349.1) (217.6) Debt (100.6) (52.3) 48.3 Equity (31.0) (296.9) (265.9) Mutual funds (Rs cr) (2,297.6) 585.2 2,882.8 Debt (471.8) (462.9) 8.9 Equity (1,825.8) 1,048.1 2,873.9 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research; Note-mutual fund data pertains to 16 and 17 May 2022
Crude oil prices rose by 1.1%, following the news of more than expected decline in US inventories, impacted by winter storm in the country.
Fig 7 – Commodities
4-1-2023 5-1-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 77.8 78.7 1.1 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,854.6 1,832.9 (1.2) Copper (US$/ MT) 8,236.0 8,361.5 1.5 Zinc (US$/MT) 3,019.3 3,028.3 0.3 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,266.5 2,255.5 (0.5) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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