Economic Weekly Wrap
10 April2023 - 13 April 2023
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10 April 2023
US labour market conditions continued to remain strong as nonfarm payrolls rose at a robust rate of 236,000 in Mar’23, after increasing at a solid pace of 326,000 in Feb’23. Unemployment rate eased to 3.5% from 3.6% in Feb’23. Further, average hourly earnings rose by 0.3% (MoM) compared with 0.2% in Feb’23, signalling price pressures. As a result, probablility of a 25bps rate hike by Fed has increased to ~66% (CME FedWatch) versus less than 50%, a week back. Key events in the US such as CPI report, FOMC minutes and retail sales data will determine the trajectory of markets this week. In India, a surprise pause by RBI led to a rally in domestic yields. Against this backdrop, CPI data due later in the week will be in focus.
Global stocks ended higher in the truncated trading week. FTSE rose the most, followed by Shanghai Comp. Sensex rose by 0.2%, led by real estate stocks. Investors are likely to remain cautious in the current week tracking US payroll data. On the other hand, private payroll data, ISM services as well as jobless claims data showed some degree of softening in the US economy. Probability of rate hike rose to 66% against less than 50% last week. Thus tracking these events Asian stocks are trading mixed today, while Sensex is trading higher.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
06-04-2023 07-04-2023 % change Dow Jones 33,483 33,485 0 S & P 500 4,090 4,105 0.4 FTSE 7,663 7,742 1.0 Nikkei 27,473 27,518 0.2 Hang Seng 20,275 20,331 0.3 Shanghai Comp 3,313 3,328 0.5 Sensex 59,689 59,833 0.2 Nifty 17,557 17,599 0.2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies closed mixed against the dollar. DXY rose by 0.3% as robust US jobs report raised the likelihood of a 25bps rate hike by the Fed in May’23. JPY depreciated the most by 0.3%, followed by a 0.2% decline in both EUR and GBP. INR appreciated by 0.1%, despite a surprise pause by the RBI. It is trading marginally weaker today, in line with other Asian currencies
Fig 2 – Currencies
06-04-2023 07-04-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0922 1.0905 (0.2) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2440 1.2418 (0.2) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 131.78 132.16 (0.3) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.00 81.90 0.1 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 6.8730 6.8679 0.1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields closed mixed. US 10Y yield rose the most (+9bps), tracking comments by St Louis Fed President’s that going forward inflation is likely to be sticky. UK, Germany and Japan’s 10Y yield on the other hand, closed stable. Even ECB’s Chief Economist hinted at another round of rate hike due to stickiness in food inflation. India’s 10Y yield fell by 6bps (7.2%), supported by RBI’s surprise pause. It is trading at 7.21% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
06-04-2023 07-04-2023 change in bps US 3.31 3.39 9 UK 3.43 3.43 0 Germany 2.18 2.18 0 Japan 0.47 0.47 0 China 2.86 2.85 (1) India 7.27 7.20 (6) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
05-04-2023 06-04-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.90 6.76 (14) Tbill-182 days 7.16 7.04 (12) Tbill-364 days 7.19 7.06 (13) G-Sec 2Y 7.04 6.90 (14) SONIA int rate benchmark 4.18 4.18 0 US SOFR 4.83 4.81 (2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 05-04-2023 06-04-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (2.7) (1.9) 0.8 Reverse repo 0 0 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
03-04-2023 05-04-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (2.3) (38.4) (36.1) Debt (70.0) (138.4) (68.4) Equity 67.8 100.1 32.3 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 2,387.4 2,825.8 438.5 Debt 2,453.8 3,916.4 1,462.6 Equity (66.5) (1,090.6) (1,024.1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Markets in India were closed on 7 Apr 2023
Global oil prices rose by 0.2% to US$ 85/bbl amidst a decline in US crude inventories.
Fig 7 – Commodities
05-04-2023 06-04-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 85.0 85.1 0.2 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 2,020.7 2,007.9 (0.6) Copper (US$/ MT) 8,784.8 8,806.8 0.3 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,808.0 2,795.5 (0.4) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,333.5 2,333.5 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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11 April 2023
idst muted domestic demand, CPI inflation in China decelerated further to 0.7% in Mar’23 (est. 1%) from 1% in Feb’23. PPI deflation too quickened to -2.5% compared with -1.4% in Feb’23. Elsewhere, in line with expectations Bank of Korea kept policy rates unchanged for the second consecutive meeting. However, monetary policy stance was kept restrictive as inflation remains above target. It also stated that GDP growth is likely to be lower than its projection of 1.6% in CY23. In his first comments since assuming office, BoJ Governor supported the central bank’s ultra-dovish monetary policy.
Except Shanghai Comp, global stocks ended higher. FTSE rose the most followed by Nikkei. Markets are eyeing inflation data releases in major economies for cues on future trajectory of rates. In China, CPI came in below expectation. In US, CPI is expected to inch up by 0.2% on MoM basis. CME Fed watch tool shows a probability of 71% for 25bps rate hike. Apart from this, BoJ Governor’s dovish comments also impacted market sentiments. Sensex closed flat. It is trading higher today, while other Asian stocks are trading mixed
Fig 1 – Stock markets
07-04-2023 10-04-2023 % change Dow Jones 33,485 33,587 0.3 S & P 500 4,105 4,109 0.1 FTSE 7,663 7,742 1.0 Nikkei 27,518 27,634 0.4 Hang Seng 20,275 20,331 0.3 Shanghai Comp 3,328 3,315 (0.4) Sensex 59,833 59,847 0 Nifty 17,599 17,624 0.1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies depreciated against the dollar. DXY rose by 0.5% supported by expectations of a 25bps rate hike by Fed in May’23. JPY depreciated the most by 1.1% amidst dovish comments from new BoJ Governor. INR depreciated by 0.1% even as oil prices eased. It is trading marginally weaker today, while other Asian currencies are mostly trading stronger.
Fig 2 – Currencies
07-04-2023 10-04-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0905 1.0859 (0.4) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2418 1.2382 (0.3) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 132.16 133.61 (1.1) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 81.90 81.99 (0.1) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 6.8679 6.8847 (0.2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields closed mixed. US 10Y yield rose by 3bps as market is now pricing a 71% probability for a 25bps rate hike in the next policy. UK, Germany, Japan and China’s 10Y yield closed stable, in absence of fresh cues. After today’s softening CPI print in China, more stimulus may be forthcoming to spur demand which might impact China’s yield in coming days. India’s 10Y yield rose by 2bps (7.22%), tracking US yield. It is trading at 7.24% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
07-04-2023 10-04-2023 change in bps US 3.39 3.42 3 UK 3.43 3.43 0 Germany 2.18 2.18 0 Japan 0.47 0.47 0 China 2.85 2.85 0 India 7.20 7.22 2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
06-04-2023 10-04-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.76 6.69 (7) Tbill-182 days 7.04 6.99 (5) Tbill-364 days 7.06 7.03 (3) G-Sec 2Y 6.90 6.91 2 SONIA int rate benchmark 4.18 4.18 0 US SOFR 4.81 4.81 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 06-04-2023 10-04-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (1.9) (1.8) 0.1 Reverse repo 0 1.2 1.2 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
05-04-2023 06-04-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (38.4) 93.1 131.5 Debt (138.4) 37.7 176.1 Equity 100.1 55.4 (44.7) Mutual funds (Rs cr) 2,387.4 2,825.8 438.5 Debt 2,453.8 3,916.4 1,462.6 Equity (66.5) (1,090.6) (1,024.1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Markets in India were closed on 7 Apr 2023
Global oil prices dipped by 1.1% to US$ 84/bbl as hopes of further rate hike by Fed dented demand prospects.
Fig 7 – Commodities
07-04-2023 10-04-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 85.1 84.2 (1.1) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 2,007.9 1,991.5 (0.8) Copper (US$/ MT) 8,784.8 8,806.8 0.3 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,808.0 2,795.5 (0.4) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,333.5 2,333.5 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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12 April 2023
IMF lowered its global growth projections for CY23 and CY24 to 2.8% (2.9% earlier) and 3% (3.1%) respectively, on the back of tight monetary policy. Global inflation projections have been revised upwards to 7% (+40bps) and 4.9% (+60bps) respectively in CY23 and CY24, led by sticky core inflation. US CPI report, due later today is likely to show that inflation eased to 5.2% in Mar’23 from 6% in Feb’23. However, core inflation is expected to have accelerated to 5.6% compared with 5.5% in Feb’23. Focus will also be on FOMC minutes. While markets expect a 25bps rate hike by Fed in May’23, expectations of rate cuts in H2CY23 have also increased. IMF has also lowered growth forecast for India to 5.9% in FY23 (-20bps) and 6.3% (- 50bps) in FY24. Investors await CPI and IIP data due later in the day.
Global stocks ended mixed. Investors were cautious ahead of US CPI data which is expected to soften. Even Fed Officials (Chicago and New York Fed President) had differing views on central bank’s next move. Apart from this, IMF’s paring down global growth forecast and caution on banking crisis also impacted market sentiments. Shanghai Comp fell the most (-0.1%), while Nikkei rose the most (+1%). Sensex rose by 0.5%, led by metal and banking stocks. It is trading further higher today, while other Asian stocks are trading mixed.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
10-04-2023 11-04-2023 % change Dow Jones 33,587 33,685 0.3 S & P 500 4,109 4,109 0 FTSE 7,742 7,786 0.6 Nikkei 27,634 27,923 1.0 Hang Seng 20,331 20,485 0.8 Shanghai Comp 3,315 3,314 (0.1) Sensex 59,847 60,158 0.5 Nifty 17,624 17,722 0.6 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies closed mixed. DXY declined by 0.4% ahead of US CPI report. EUR gained by 0.5% even as Eurozone’s retail sales dipped. GBP appreciated by 0.3%, against a weaker dollar. INR depreciated by 0.2% as oil prices rose. However it is trading stronger today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
10-04-2023 11-04-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0859 1.0912 0.5 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2382 1.2424 0.3 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 133.61 133.68 (0.1) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 81.99 82.13 (0.2) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 6.8847 6.8860 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields closed mixed. Germany and UK’s 10Y yield rose the most by 13bps and 11bps respectively, as all eyes are on US CPI data for cues on future trajectory of rates. On the other hand, China’s 10Y yield fell by 3bps as markets are expecting a stimulus from PBOC to spur demand. India’s 10Y yield fell a tad by 1bps (7.21%), as a softening in Mar’23 CPI print is anticipated. It is trading at 7.22% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
10-04-2023 11-04-2023 change in bps US 3.42 3.43 1 UK 3.43 3.54 11 Germany 2.18 2.31 13 Japan 0.47 0.46 (1) China 2.85 2.82 (3) India 7.22 7.21 (1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
10-04-2023 11-04-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.69 6.73 4 Tbill-182 days 6.99 6.96 (3) Tbill-364 days 7.03 7.01 (2) G-Sec 2Y 6.91 6.91 0 SONIA int rate benchmark 4.18 4.18 0 US SOFR 4.81 4.81 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 10-04-2023 11-04-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (1.8) (1.9) (0.1) Reverse repo 1.2 1.2 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
06-04-2023 10-04-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 93.1 262.4 169.3 Debt 37.7 93.5 55.8 Equity 55.4 168.9 113.5 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 2,387.4 2,825.8 438.5 Debt 2,453.8 3,916.4 1,462.6 Equity (66.5) (1,090.6) (1,024.1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Markets in India were closed on 7 Apr 2023
Global oil prices rose by 1.7% to US$ 86/bbl amidst expectation of stimulus measures from China to boost demand.
Fig 7 – Commodities
10-04-2023 11-04-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 84.2 85.6 1.7 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,991.5 2,003.6 0.6 Copper (US$/ MT) 8,806.8 8,851.5 0.5 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,795.5 2,770.5 (0.9) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,333.5 2,302.5 (1.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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13 April 2023
Inflation in the US cooled more than expected to 5% in Mar’23 (est. 5.1%) versus 6% in Feb’23 (YoY), supported by a sharp decline in gasoline prices. Core CPI rose by 5.6%, after increasing by 5.5% in Feb’23. FOMC minutes showed that members discussed the possibility of keeping rates steady amidst stress in the banking sector. Projections by Fed staff suggested that the banking crisis could tip the economy into a “mild recession”. However, most members agreed that inflation still remained uncomfortably high which warranted a rate hike. Hence, markets now expect that the Fed will likely deliver its final rate hike of 25bps in May’23. Elsewhere, China’s exports rose unexpectedly in Mar’23. In India, CPI inflation moderated to 5.7% in Mar’23, while IIP improved marginally to 5.6% from 5.5% in Jan’23.
Global stocks ended mixed. Hang Seng dropped the most by 0.9%, while Nikkei (+0.6%) and FTSE (+0.5%) edged up. Investors remained cautious tracking Fed minutes which showed that FOMC members have incorporated ‘mild recession’ starting later this year. US CPI gave mixed picture as headline print moderated but core remained firm. Fed Officials (Francisco and Richmond Fed President) also gave mixed signals. Sensex rose by 0.4%, led by auto and technology stocks. It is trading lower today, while Asian stocks are trading mixed.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
11-04-2023 12-04-2023 % change Dow Jones 33,685 33,647 (0.1) S & P 500 4,109 4,092 (0.4) FTSE 7,786 7,825 0.5 Nikkei 27,923 28,083 0.6 Hang Seng 20,485 20,310 (0.9) Shanghai Comp 3,314 3,327 0.4 Sensex 60,158 60,393 0.4 Nifty 17,722 17,812 0.5 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies broadly gained against a weaker dollar. DXY fell by 0.7% as a weaker than expected CPI reading in the US raised the possibility that the Fed is nearing the end of its rate hike cycle. EUR and GBP appreciated the most. INR is trading further stronger today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
11-04-2023 12-04-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0912 1.0992 0.7 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2424 1.2485 0.5 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 133.68 133.13 0.4 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.13 82.09 0 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 6.8860 6.8730 0.2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields closed mixed. Fed minutes reflected that policy support may be required as mild recession is flagged. Albeit, market is not ruling out the possibility of upcoming 25bps hike. Thus, US 10Y yield fell by 4bps. Germany and UK’s 10Y yield firmed up by 6bps and 3bps respectively ahead of major macro releases. India’s 10Y yield fell by 2bps (7.19%). It is trading higher at 7.22% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
11-04-2023 12-04-2023 change in bps US 3.43 3.39 (4) UK 3.54 3.57 3 Germany 2.31 2.37 6 Japan 0.46 0.47 1 China 2.82 2.82 0 India 7.21 7.19 (2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
11-04-2023 12-04-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.73 6.71 (2) Tbill-182 days 6.96 6.95 (1) Tbill-364 days 7.01 7.00 (1) G-Sec 2Y 6.91 6.90 (1) SONIA int rate benchmark 4.18 4.18 0 US SOFR 4.81 4.80 (1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 11-04-2023 12-04-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (1.9) (2.0) (0.1) Reverse repo 1.2 1.2 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
10-04-2023 11-04-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 262.4 71.7 (190.7) Debt 93.5 (53.8) (147.3) Equity 168.9 125.5 (43.4) Mutual funds (Rs cr) 2,387.4 2,825.8 438.5 Debt 2,453.8 3,916.4 1,462.6 Equity (66.5) (1,090.6) (1,024.1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Markets in India were closed on 7 Apr 2023
Global oil prices rose by 2% to US$ 87/bbl supported by moderation in headline CPI data in the US.
Fig 7 – Commodities
11-04-2023 12-04-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 85.6 87.3 2.0 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 2,003.6 2,014.9 0.6 Copper (US$/ MT) 8,851.5 8,916.8 0.7 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,770.5 2,799.3 1.0 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,302.5 2,325.0 1.0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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