Economic Weekly Wrap
5 December 2022 - 9 December 2022
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05 Dec 2022
Latest data for US labour market shows that conditions continue to remain tighter than expected, as non-farm payrolls rose by 263k in Nov’22 versus consensus estimate of 200k, but additions have slowed from previous month’s 284k. It is widely expected that Fed will begin slowing the pace of rate hikes from Dec’22 meeting. However, steady YoY rise in hourly wage (+5.1% in Nov’22 versus est.: 4.6% and 4.9% in Oct’22), remains a concern for inflation. In case of Europe, MoM dip in France’s industrial production (-2.6% in Oct’22 versus -0.9% in Sep’22) and elevated PPI in Eurozone (30.8% in Oct’22) is worrying. OPEC+ decision to keep production cuts unchanged and of China loosening Covid-19 restrictions may put upward pressure on commodity prices.
Barring Dow Jones and FTSE (flat), other global indices ended lower. Investors monitored better than expected US non-farm payrolls data. Amongst other indices, Nikkei (1.6%) dropped the most. Sensex (0.7%) too ended in red led by sharp losses in power and auto stocks. It is trading further lower today while other Asian stocks are trading higher.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
01-12-2022 02-12-2022 % change Dow Jones 34,395 34,430 0.1 S & P 500 4,077 4,072 (0.1) FTSE 7,558 7,556 (0.0) Nikkei 28,226 27,778 (1.6) Hang Seng 18,736 18,675 (0.3) Shanghai Comp 3,165 3,156 (0.3) Sensex 63,284 62,869 (0.7) Nifty 18,813 18,696 (0.6) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Apart from INR and CNY (flat), other global currencies ended higher. Dollar index dropped (-0.2%) to more than 3-month low, after Fed chair signalled about slower pace of rate hike. Japanese Yen leaped ahead after BoJ policymaker made comments hinting a hawkish tilt. INR depreciated by 0.1%. It is trading lower today, while other Asian currencies are trading higher.
Fig 2 – Currencies
1-12-2022 2-12-2022 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0520 1.0535 0.1 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2247 1.2280 0.3 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 135.33 134.31 0.8 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 81.22 81.32 (0.1) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.0534 7.0535 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Barring Japan and US, global yields inched up. While US 10Y was down by 2bps as smaller rate hike is expected in Dec’22 policy meeting, yields in UK (+5bps) and Germany (+4bps) rose the most. Yields in UK rose as BoE has begun the process of unwinding its balance sheet by selling securities as per market appetite. India’s 10Y yield rose a tad and is trading at 7.23% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
1-12-2022 2-12-2022 change in bps US 3.50 3.49 (2) UK 3.10 3.15 5 Germany 1.81 1.86 4 Japan 0.25 0.26 0 China 2.90 2.91 1 India 7.21 7.22 1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
1-12-2022 2-12-2022 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.35 6.32 (3) Tbill-182 days 6.69 6.69 0 Tbill-364 days 6.82 6.80 (2) G-Sec 2Y 6.84 6.80 (3) SONIA int rate benchmark 2.93 2.93 0 US SOFR 3.82 3.82 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 1-12-2022 2-12-2022 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (1.7) (1.7) 0 Reverse repo 0.5 0 (0.5) Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
30-11-2022 1-12-2022 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 1,132.5 (173.6) (1,306.1) Debt 40.2 8.2 (32.1) Equity 1,092.3 (181.8) (1,274.1) Mutual funds (Rs cr) (268.8) 1,761.8 2,030.6 Debt (49.7) 1,849.0 1,898.6 Equity (219.1) (87.1) 132.0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Mutual funds data as of 25 Nov 2022 and 28 Nov 2022
Crude oil prices remained broadly unchanged as US rig count remained steady in the week. Inventors will react to OPEC+ decision to keep output cut unchanged and Europe’s Russian oil ban.
Fig 7 – Commodities
1-12-2022 2-12-2022 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 85.4 85.3 (0.1) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,749.7 1,755.2 0.3 Copper (US$/ MT) 7,962.3 8,003.0 0.5 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,900.3 2,910.8 0.4 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,397.0 2,367.5 (1.2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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06 Dec 2022
Fears of more rate hikes by Fed daunted market sentiments. This was led by strengthening of US economy as has been reflected by unexpected improvement in ISM non-manufacturing PMI (56.5 from 54.5). A 50bps rate hike is already priced in the upcoming meet with terminal rates hitting above 5% by May’23. Moving in tandem with other Central Bank, Australia too raised the rates for the 3rd consecutive time by 25bps to 3.1% (10-year high) and signalled the requirement of more tightening ahead. Investors carefully observed as China begins to gradually ease off Covid-19 restrictions and begins opening the economy in hopes of normalisation
Barring US indices and Sensex, other global indices ended lower. Investors’ sentiments were soured as there is much higher possibility of rate hikes by Fed than initially anticipated. On the other hand, lifting down of restrictions in China pushed Asian indices higher. Sensex started the week in red and was dragged down by losses in IT and auto stocks. It is trading further lower today while other Asian stocks are trading mixed.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
02-12-2022 05-12-2022 % change Dow Jones 34,430 33,947 (1.4) S & P 500 4,072 3,999 (1.8) FTSE 7,556 7,568 0.1 Nikkei 27,778 27,820 0.2 Hang Seng 18,675 19,518 4.5 Shanghai Comp 3,156 3,212 1.8 Sensex 62,869 62,835 (0.1) Nifty 18,696 18,701 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except CNY, global currencies broadly depreciated against the dollar. DXY rose by 0.7% supported by upbeat macro data in the US, which raised the hopes that terminal Fed rate may be above 5%. JPY depreciated the most by 1.8% followed by INR at 0.6%. CNY was supported by easing Covid-19 related restrictions in the region. INR is trading further weaker today, while other Asian currencies are trading higher.
Fig 2 – Currencies
02-12-2022 05-12-2022 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0535 1.0491 (0.4) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2280 1.2190 (0.7) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 134.31 136.75 (1.8) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 81.32 81.80 (0.6) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.0535 6.9625 1.3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields closed mixed. US 10Y yield firmed up by 9bps supported by better macro print (ISM services, durable goods orders). UK’s 10Y yield fell by 5bps as CBI report indicated that Britain could shrink into recession in CY23. Japan and India’s 10Y yield closed stable. India’s 10Y yield is trading a tad higher at 7.24% today ahead of RBI’s policy decision.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
02-12-2022 05-12-2022 change in bps US 3.49 3.57 9 UK 3.15 3.10 (5) Germany 1.86 1.88 2 Japan 0.26 0.26 0 China 2.91 2.92 1 India 7.22 7.23 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
02-12-2022 05-12-2022 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.32 6.31 (1) Tbill-182 days 6.69 6.68 (1) Tbill-364 days 6.80 6.78 (2) G-Sec 2Y 6.80 6.81 1 SONIA int rate benchmark 2.93 2.93 0 US SOFR 3.82 3.81 (1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 04-12-2022 05-12-2022 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (1.9) (1.5) 0.4 Reverse repo 0.3 0.3 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
01-11-2022 02-12-2022 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (173.6) 155.5 329.1 Debt 8.2 109.4 101.2 Equity (181.8) 46.1 227.9 Mutual funds (Rs cr) (268.8) 1,761.8 2,030.6 Debt (49.7) 1,849.0 1,898.6 Equity (219.1) (87.1) 132.0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Mutual funds data as of 25 Nov 2022 and 28 Nov 2022
Crude oil prices dropped by 3.4% to US$82.7/bbl. Investors were cautious monitoring OPEC + plans to continue with the Oct’22 plan of reducing output by 2mn bbl per day. Gold prices also edged downwards.
Fig 7 – Commodities
02-12-2022 05-12-2022 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 85.6 82.7 (3.4) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,797.6 1,768.7 (1.6) Copper (US$/ MT) 8,432.5 8,348.5 (1.0) Zinc (US$/MT) 3,085.3 3,139.5 1.8 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,545.5 2,522.5 (0.9) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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07 Dec 2022
Showing the impact of a stronger dollar, US exports fell to 7-month low (-0.7%) in Oct’22 while imports rose by 0.6%, leading to widening of the trade deficit. Within imports, while that of industrial supplies, automobiles and parts increased, noticeable decline was seen in consumer goods sector, indicating the impact of increasing interest rates. Elsewhere in Germany (factory orders) and Australia (GDP), macro data delivered positive news. In Germany, orders in Oct’22 rose much more (0.8% MoM) than anticipated (0.1%), following 4% decline in Sep’22, supported by large- scale orders. In Australia, Q3CY22 GDP rose by 5.9% (YoY) versus est.: 6% and up from 3.6% in Q2, supported by consumer spending. However, as China continues to slowdown, headwind to global economy still persist.
Barring Nikkei and Shanghai Comp (flat), other global indices ended lower. Investors’ sentiments grew wary as fears about economic slowdown resurfaced. S&P 500 dropped the most compared with other indices. Sensex too ended in red tracing global cues. Sharp losses were seen in metal and IT stocks. However, it is trading higher today while other Asian stocks are trading mixed.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
5-12-2022 6-12-2022 % change Dow Jones 33,947 33,596 (1.0) S & P 500 3,999 3,941 (1.4) FTSE 7,568 7,521 (0.6) Nikkei 27,820 27,886 0.2 Hang Seng 19,518 19,441 (0.4) Shanghai Comp 3,212 3,213 0 Sensex 62,835 62,626 (0.3) Nifty 18,701 18,643 (0.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies ended lower. Dollar index strengthened by 0.3% after better- than-expected non-manufacturing PMI. Investors turned their focus towards the US CPI and Fed's policy meet scheduled next week. INR depreciated by 1% as oil prices declined sharply. It is trading weaker today while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
5-12-2022 6-12-2022 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0491 1.0467 (0.2) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2190 1.2133 (0.5) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 136.75 137.00 (0.2) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 81.80 82.61 (1.0) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 6.9625 6.9950 (0.5) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global bond yields closed mixed. While 10Y yields fell in US and Europe, they increased in China and India, while remaining flat in Japan. As US yield curve inversion deepens (a sign of recession), investors are expecting smaller Fed rate hike next week. India’s 10Y yield rose by 2bps, awaiting RBI’s monetary policy decision. It is trading lower at 7.23% today, following global cues.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
5-12-2022 6-12-2022 change in bps US 3.57 3.53 (4) UK 3.10 3.08 (3) Germany 1.88 1.80 (8) Japan 0.26 0.26 0 China 2.92 2.95 2 India 7.23 7.25 2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
5-12-2022 6-12-2022 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.31 6.33 2 Tbill-182 days 6.68 6.67 (1) Tbill-364 days 6.78 6.79 1 G-Sec 2Y 6.81 6.85 4 SONIA int rate benchmark 2.93 2.93 0 US SOFR 3.81 3.81 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 5-12-2022 6-12-2022 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (1.5) (0.8) 0.7 Reverse repo 0.3 0.3 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
2-12-2022 5-12-2022 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 155.5 (91.4) (246.9) Debt 109.4 18.2 (91.2) Equity 46.1 (109.6) (155.7) Mutual funds (Rs cr) (268.8) 1,761.8 2,030.6 Debt (49.7) 1,849.0 1,898.6 Equity (219.1) (87.1) 132.0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Mutual funds data as of 25 Nov 2022 and 28 Nov 2022
Crude oil prices fell sharply by 4% and slipped below the US$ 80/bbl mark for the first time since late Dec’21/early Jan’22 as fears of weak demand increased. China’s 6-month low services activity index has further fuelled fears.
Fig 7 – Commodities
5-12-2022 6-12-2022 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 82.7 79.4 (4.0) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,768.7 1,771.0 0.1 Copper (US$/ MT) 8,348.5 8,384.8 0.4 Zinc (US$/MT) 3,139.5 3,179.0 1.3 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,522.5 2,508.5 (0.6) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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08 Dec 2022
High interest rates in the US continue to take a toll on the housing market as mortgage application for the week ending 2 Dec 2022 fell by another 1.9%, following 0.8% decline in the previous week. Weak global demand has also led to steep decline in China’s exports in Nov’22 (-8.7% versus est.: 3.5% and -0.3% in Oct’22). Stringent Covid-19 restrictions in the country also pushed its imports for Nov’22 down by -10.6% versus est.: -6% and -0.7% in Oct’22. Eurozone’s revised estimates for Q3CY22 indicated that economy did indeed slowdown, and broadly at a similar pace of 0.3% versus 0.2% as per flash estimates. Fears of weak global demand are also pushing oil prices lower.
Barring Dow Jones (flat), other global indices ended lower as investor sentiments took beating with fears of global economic downturn resurfacing. Additionally, accelerated concerns of Fed rate hike also kept investors on the hook. Hang Seng (3.2%) dropped the most. Sensex (0.3%) too ended in red led by losses in consumer durable and real estate stocks. It is trading higher today while other Asian indices are trading mixed.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
6-12-2022 7-12-2022 % change Dow Jones 33,596 33,598 0 S & P 500 3,941 3,934 (0.2) FTSE 7,521 7,489 (0.4) Nikkei 27,886 27,686 (0.7) Hang Seng 19,441 18,815 (3.2) Shanghai Comp 3,213 3,200 (0.4) Sensex 62,626 62,411 (0.3) Nifty 18,643 18,561 (0.4) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies ended higher. Dollar index weakened (0.5%) amidst fears of potential recession hitting US shores. Investors also remained wary of Fed keeping rates higher for much longer period. CNY jumped by 0.4% with news report of China planning to lift Covid-19 restrictions. INR appreciated by 0.2% despite a dip in oil prices. It is trading stronger today while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
6-12-2022 7-12-2022 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0467 1.0506 0.4 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2133 1.2203 0.6 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 137.00 136.62 0.3 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.61 82.48 0.2 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 6.9950 6.9700 0.4 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Barring India and Japan, global bond yields closed lower. US 10Y yield fell sharply by 11bps to 3.42% as macro data is presenting a mixed picture and investors believe that Fed will have to hike rates for longer a period. Risk to a recession already remain elevated with deepening of inverted yield curve in the US. India’s 10Y yield rose by 2bps, following RBI’s 35bps hike in policy rates. However, it is trading a tad lower at 7.26% today, following global cues.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
6-12-2022 7-12-2022 change in bps US 3.53 3.42 (11) UK 3.08 3.04 (3) Germany 1.80 1.78 (2) Japan 0.26 0.26 0 China 2.95 2.91 (3) India 7.25 7.27 2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
6-12-2022 7-12-2022 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.33 6.40 7 Tbill-182 days 6.67 6.77 10 Tbill-364 days 6.79 6.91 12 G-Sec 2Y 6.85 6.86 1 SONIA int rate benchmark 2.93 2.93 0 US SOFR 3.81 3.80 (1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 6-12-2022 7-12-2022 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (0.8) (1.6) (0.8) Reverse repo 0.3 0.3 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
5-12-2022 6-12-2022 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (91.4) 22.9 114.3 Debt 18.2 54.1 35.9 Equity (109.6) (31.2) 78.3 Mutual funds (Rs cr) (268.8) 1,761.8 2,030.6 Debt (49.7) 1,849.0 1,898.6 Equity (219.1) (87.1) 132.0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Mutual funds data as of 25 Nov 2022 and 28 Nov 2022
Crude oil prices declined further by 2.7% and fell to its lowest level in CYTD22. Prices fell following the news of higher than expected US fuel stocks.
Fig 7 – Commodities
6-12-2022 7-12-2022 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 79.4 77.2 (2.7) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,771.0 1,786.3 0.9 Copper (US$/ MT) 8,384.8 8,430.0 0.5 Zinc (US$/MT) 3,179.0 3,207.0 0.9 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,508.5 2,485.5 (0.9) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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09 Dec 2022
Weak demand from China has contributed to substantial decline in commodity prices, and has even to led 2nd consecutive dip in China’s PPI, by -1.3% in Nov’22, unchanged from Oct’22. This is also expected to impact profitability of the Chinese firms. Weak domestic demand has caused CPI in Nov’22 to ease to 1.6% from 2.1% in Oct’22. Also facing headwinds from subdued global demand and weaker Yen, Japan’s current account posted a deficit (1st time in 8 years) of ¥64.1bn in Oct’22 versus a surplus of ¥1.73tn in Oct’21. Its Q3CY22 GDP remained in contraction, albeit was revised upward to -0.8% (QoQ) versus -1.2% as per previous estimates. Next week, all eyes will be on major central bank decisions, (Fed, BoE, and ECB).
Global stocks ended mixed. Investors monitored the increased possibility of recession in the US and reports of easing Covid-19 rules in China. US equities rose, led by gains in technology and energy stocks. Hang Seng rose by 3.4%. Sensex edged up by 0.3% supported by gains in capital goods and banking stocks. It is trading higher today while other Asian indices are trading mixed.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
7-12-2022 8-12-2022 % change Dow Jones 33,598 33,781 0.5 S & P 500 3,934 3,964 0.8 FTSE 7,489 7,472 (0.2) Nikkei 27,686 27,574 (0.4) Hang Seng 18,815 19,450 3.4 Shanghai Comp 3,200 3,197 (0.1) Sensex 62,411 62,571 0.3 Nifty 18,561 18,609 0.3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except JPY and INR (flat), other global currencies edged up against the dollar. DXY fell by 0.3% as investors remain cautious ahead of US PPI data (scheduled today), as well as the CPI data and Fed meeting next week. EUR rose the most by 0.5%. INR closed flat even as oil prices dipped further. It is trading stronger today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
7-12-2022 8-12-2022 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0506 1.0556 0.5 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2203 1.2234 0.3 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 136.62 136.67 0 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.48 82.43 0.1 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 6.9700 6.9674 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Barring Japan (flat), other global bond yields closed higher. US 10Y yield rose by 6bps to as jobless claims came in line with expectations and investors believe that marginal increase in claims is mainly owing to the holiday season. Yields in Europe also inched up, ahead of respective central bank decisions next week. India’s 10Y yield rose by 2bps, following global cues. It is trading a tad higher at 7.30% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
7-12-2022 8-12-2022 change in bps US 3.42 3.48 6 UK 3.04 3.09 4 Germany 1.78 1.82 4 Japan 0.26 0.26 0 China 2.91 2.92 1 India 7.27 7.29 2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
7-12-2022 8-12-2022 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.40 6.36 (4) Tbill-182 days 6.77 6.75 (2) Tbill-364 days 6.91 6.89 (2) G-Sec 2Y 6.86 6.86 0 SONIA int rate benchmark 2.93 2.93 0 US SOFR 3.80 3.80 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 7-12-2022 8-12-2022 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (1.6) (1.4) 0.2 Reverse repo 0.3 0.3 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
6-12-2022 7-12-2022 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 22.9 (146.1) (168.9) Debt 54.1 21.4 (32.7) Equity (31.2) (167.5) (136.2) Mutual funds (Rs cr) (268.8) 1,761.8 2,030.6 Debt (49.7) 1,849.0 1,898.6 Equity (219.1) (87.1) 132.0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Mutual funds data as of 25 Nov 2022 and 28 Nov 2022
Crude oil prices continue to decline and have reached US$ 76/bbl, owing to concerns surrounding global demand. It is estimated that it will take months for demand to benefit from China’s easing Covid-19 restrictions.
Fig 7 – Commodities
7-12-2022 8-12-2022 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 77.2 76.2 (1.3) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,786.3 1,789.1 0.2 Copper (US$/ MT) 8,430.0 8,524.8 1.1 Zinc (US$/MT) 3,207.0 3,269.0 1.9 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,485.5 2,503.0 0.7 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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