Economic Weekly Wrap
02 May 2023 - 04 May 2023
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02 May 2023
Astring of data releases this week is likely to keep investors on their toes. Central Bank decisions from RBA, Fed and ECB will shed more light on global monetary tightening cycle. This comes in the wake of BoJ’s decision to continue with ultra- loose monetary policy in sharp contrast to other banks. As a result, Yen slipped close to a 2-month low, before steadying back. While gold prices remained flat, DXY strengthened. Subdued global demand outlook, dragged down oil prices. Separately, US manufacturing PMI contracted once again in Apr (47.1 from 46.3), albeit at a slower pace. China’s manufacturing PMI unexpectedly cools off in Apr’23. On the other hand, India’s manufacturing PMI rose to 4-month high in Apr’23 to 57.2 from 56.4 in Mar’23.
Except US indices, other global stocks ended higher. Investor monitored corporate earnings from across the globe. Additionally, news of First Republic bank being acquired by JP Morgan ahead of the Fed rate decision kept the investors wary. Most of the Asian indices were closed due to Labour day, were trading mixed today. Sensex too started the week with a bang and rallied more than 250 points in the morning session today
Fig 1 – Stock markets
28-04-2023 01-05-2023 % change Dow Jones 34,098 34,052 (0.1) S & P 500 4,169 4,168 0 FTSE 7,832 7,871 0.5 Nikkei 28,856 29,123 0.9 Hang Seng 19,840 19,895 0.3 Shanghai Comp 3,286 3,323 1.1 Sensex 60,649 61,112 0.8 Nifty 17,915 18,065 0.8 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Barring INR and CNY (closed), other global currencies ended lower. JPY and GBP fell the most. DXY rose by 0.5% following the news acquisition of First Republic Bank and Fed being on track to hike rate in this week’s meeting. INR is trading stronger today, in line with other Asian currencies, owing to improvement in risk appetite of investors.
Fig 2 – Currencies
28-04-2023 01-05-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1019 1.0976 (0.4) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2567 1.2496 (0.6) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 136.30 137.50 (0.9) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 81.84 81.83 0 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 6.9225 6.9126 0.1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields closed mixed. 10Y yield in the US rose the most (+15bps), as investors await forward guidance from Fed’s meeting this week and risks owing to uncertainty around debt ceiling remain elevated. Tracking global cues, India’s 10Y yield has opened a tad higher at 7.13% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
28-04-2023 01-05-2023 change in bps US 3.42 3.57 15 UK 3.72 3.72 0 Germany 2.31 2.31 0 Japan 0.39 0.41 1 China 2.79 2.78 (1) India 7.10 7.12 2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
27-04-2023 28-04-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.81 6.78 (3) Tbill-182 days 6.95 6.95 0 Tbill-364 days 6.98 7.00 2 G-Sec 2Y 6.88 6.89 1 India OIS-2M 6.60 6.59 (1) India OIS-9M 6.61 6.62 1 SONIA int rate benchmark 4.18 4.18 0 US SOFR 4.81 4.81 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 27-04-2023 28-04-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (0.4) (0.4) 0 Reverse repo 0.2 0.2 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
26-04-2023 27-04-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 290.1 548.3 258.2 Debt 113.9 66.2 (47.7) Equity 176.2 482.0 305.8 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 1,362.4 (1,261.6) (2,624.0) Debt 1,818.8 (787.1) (2,605.9) Equity (456.4) (474.5) (18.1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Mutual funds data as of 12 Apr 2023 and 13 Apr 2023
Global oil prices fell by 0.3%, as weaker than expected China’s macro data and expectation of Fed rate hikes, weighed down on prospects of global demand.
Fig 7 – Commodities
28-04-2023 01-05-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 79.5 79.3 (0.3) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,990.0 1,982.6 (0.4) Copper (US$/ MT) 8,569.5 8,577.0 0.1 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,621.3 2,650.5 1.1 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,319.0 2,356.0 1.6 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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03 May 2023
Global indices eye rate decisions by global central Banks. Markets have priced in 87% chance of a 25bps hike by Fed in the upcoming meet. US jobs opening declined more than anticipated, signalling early signs of labour market loosening up. Fed is expected to closely watch JOLTS report, along with factory orders data. Amidst these uncertainties, Gold rose to a 2-week high with DXY slipping as concerns of broader economic slowdown in US economy came to the fore. Separately, RBA surprised by hiking rates by 25bps after a pause, touting ‘uncomfortably persistent’ service inflation as the prominent reason.
Ahead of key rate decisions by Central Banks, global indices ended mixed. Concerns over US debt ceiling made the investors wary and dragged the US indices lower, regional banks extended their losses. On the other hand, Sensex rallied to a 4-month high led by sharp gains in metal and power stocks. Though, it is trading lower today amidst news of an aviation firm filing for insolvency. Asian indices slipped in the morning session led by subdued global cues.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
01-05-2023 02-05-2023 % change Dow Jones 34,052 33,685 (1.1) S & P 500 4,168 4,120 (1.2) FTSE 7,871 7,773 (1.2) Nikkei 29,123 29,158 0.1 Hang Seng 19,895 19,934 0.2 Shanghai Comp 3,286 3,323 1.1 Sensex 61,112 61,355 0.4 Nifty 18,065 18,148 0.5 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Barring GBP and INR (lower), other global currencies ended higher. JPY and EUR gained the most. DXY fell by 0.2%, as investors monitor signs of softening labour market (jobs opening/layoffs) and production (factory orders), ahead of Fed’s decision due today. INR fell by 0.1%, but is trading stronger today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
01-05-2023 02-05-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0976 1.0999 0.2 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2496 1.2467 (0.2) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 137.50 136.55 0.7 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 81.83 81.89 (0.1) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 6.9225 6.9126 0.1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except Japan (higher), global yields closed lower. 10Y yield in the US fell the most (-14bps). Softer than expected jobs and production data has raised hopes of a pause by Fed. Weak credit growth and moderating inflation in Eurozone has also reignited hopes of smaller rate hikes by ECB. Tracking global cues, India’s 10Y yield fell by 2bps, and is trading even lower at 7.05% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
01-05-2023 02-05-2023 change in bps US 3.57 3.42 (14) UK 3.72 3.67 (5) Germany 2.31 2.26 (6) Japan 0.41 0.42 1 China 2.79 2.78 (1) India 7.12 7.09 (2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
01-05-2023 02-05-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.78 6.92 14 Tbill-182 days 6.95 6.98 3 Tbill-364 days 7.00 6.99 (1) G-Sec 2Y 6.89 6.91 2 India OIS-2M 6.59 6.59 0 India OIS-9M 6.62 6.63 1 SONIA int rate benchmark 4.18 4.18 0 US SOFR 4.81 4.81 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 28-04-2023 02-05-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (0.4) (0.6) (0.2) Reverse repo 0.2 0.2 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
27-04-2023 28-04-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 548.3 756.3 208.1 Debt 66.2 (34.7) (100.9) Equity 482.0 791.0 309.0 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 2,020.7 760.3 (1,260.4) Debt 1,574.0 (479.1) (2,053.0) Equity 446.8 1,239.4 792.6 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Mutual funds data as of 12 Apr 2023 and 13 Apr 2023
Global oil prices fell sharply by 5%, as macro data from US and China indicates weak global demand momentum, and any further rate hikes by central banks may push demand even lower.
Fig 7 – Commodities
01-05-2023 02-05-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 79.3 75.3 (5.0) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,982.6 2,016.7 1.7 Copper (US$/ MT) 8,577.0 8,490.0 (1.0) Zinc (US$/MT) 2,650.5 2,611.0 (1.5) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,356.0 2,366.5 0.4 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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04 May 2023
US Fed raised rates by 25bps to 5-5.25%, highest level in over 16-years as it battles stubborn inflation. Fed Chair noted that they ‘no longer anticipate’ any more rate hike while no action can be ‘ruled out’ if any risk emerge that might impede in attaining their goals. Investors viewed this as a possible pause and maybe even a pivot with 52% chance of rate cut in Jul’23. Gold prices firmed while DXY weakened. Oil prices continued to extend their losses further. Separately, China’s manufacturing PMI (Caixin) contracted for the first time in 3-months down to 49.5 in Apr’23 (50 in Mar’23) reflected by subdued demand in new orders.
Global indices ended mixed after Fed hiked rates (25bps) as was widely expected and hinted of a possible pause in the coming months. ECB is also likely to push for a rate hike, given the inflation edged up to 7% in Apr’23 (6.9% in Mar’23). Domestic market ended in red with losses in IT and oil & gas stocks. However, it is trading higher today while other Asian indices are trading mixed.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
02-05-2023 03-05-2023 % change Dow Jones 33,685 33,414 (0.8) S & P 500 4,120 4,091 (0.7) FTSE 7,773 7,788 0.2 Nikkei 28,856 29,158 1.0 Hang Seng 19,934 19,699 (1.2) Shanghai Comp 3,286 3,323 1.1 Sensex 61,355 61,193 (0.3) Nifty 18,148 18,090 (0.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies ended higher. JPY and GBP gained the most. DXY fell by 0.6%, following Fed’s signal to pause going forward. Markets also await jobs data due on Friday to seek guidance on Fed decision, as future course of action will be more data dependent. INR rose by 0.1%, supported by sharp decline in oil prices. It is trading further higher today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
02-05-2023 03-05-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0999 1.1062 0.6 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2467 1.2564 0.8 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 136.55 134.71 1.4 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 81.89 81.83 0.1 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 6.9225 6.9126 0.1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except Japan (flat) and UK (higher), other global yields closed lower. 10Y yields in US and India fell the most (-9bps). Change in Fed’s communication indicating that it may opt for a pause and future decisions will be data dependent helped ease investor sentiments. UK’s yield rose as investors await BoE’s decision due next week amidst sticky inflation trend. Following global cues, India’s 10Y yield fell to 7.01%, and is trading flat at the same level today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
02-05-2023 03-05-2023 change in bps US 3.42 3.34 (9) UK 3.67 3.70 3 Germany 2.26 2.25 (1) Japan 0.42 0.42 0 China 2.79 2.78 (1) India 7.09 7.01 (9) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
02-05-2023 03-05-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.92 6.87 (5) Tbill-182 days 6.98 6.97 (1) Tbill-364 days 6.99 6.98 (1) G-Sec 2Y 6.91 6.84 (7) India OIS-2M 6.59 6.59 0 India OIS-9M 6.63 6.60 (3) SONIA int rate benchmark 4.18 4.18 0 US SOFR 4.81 4.81 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 02-05-2023 03-05-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (0.6) (0.7) (0.1) Reverse repo 0.2 0.2 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
28-04-2023 02-05-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 756.3 239.3 (517.0) Debt (34.7) (126.6) (92.0) Equity 791.0 365.9 (425.1) Mutual funds (Rs cr) 2,020.7 760.3 (1,260.4) Debt 1,574.0 (479.1) (2,053.0) Equity 446.8 1,239.4 792.6 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Mutual funds data as of 12 Apr 2023 and 13 Apr 2023
Global oil prices continued their steep decline and fell to ~US$ 72/bbl as Fed announced 25bps rate hike and US inventories unexpectedly rose last week
Fig 7 – Commodities
02-05-2023 03-05-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 75.3 72.3 (4.0) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 2,016.7 2,039.0 1.1 Copper (US$/ MT) 8,490.0 8,442.8 (0.6) Zinc (US$/MT) 2,611.0 2,623.3 0.5 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,366.5 2,321.0 (1.9) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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